Whedonesque : Comments on 18148 : Saw VI to "stomp" Cabin in the Woods?

Part of what he says makes no sense, by the way. As I just pointed out at my Cabin blog, The Cabin in the Woods received its October 23 release date three months ago, when many people assumed that Saw VI would be released one week later.

So it makes no sense to say that “it’s interesting that people don’t see Saw as such a threat to have the same opening day”, because we don’t yet know what MGM will do now that Saw VI has been given the same release date. (I've asked, but the press contact on the original Cabin press release never has ever gotten back to me on any inquiries.)

[ edited by theonetruebix on 2008-11-17 22:50 ]

The One True b!X | November 17, 22:37 CET

The Saw series is one of my guilty pleasures, but even I've only seen the last few on DVD. The first one was a solid piece, but I still have a hard time picturing Carey Elway in that roll.

It will be Cabin in the Woods all the way for me when it comes to the box office if they are released on the same day.

Eric_Curtis | November 17, 22:44 CET

I am more interested in Cabin but Saw is more popular...

Rikardo | November 17, 22:46 CET

I'll definitely be seeing Cabin and not Saw (haven't sawn any of the Saws), but I don't imagine any way that Saw would not beat Cabin at the box office. I haven't been following this, but I'd be surprised if Cabin doesn't move.
(i.e. what Rikardo said =)

jam2 | November 17, 22:49 CET

Saw was good, that's all Saw + were all so bad. Movies like Saw are the reason Cabin was started by Joss and Drew.

Pretty_Hate_Machine | November 17, 22:51 CET

Since the box office numbers for Saw have been so good that they've made five movies - I don't think it's unreasonable for the director to say that they don't see Cabin in the Woods interfering with their numbers.

BrownCoat_Tabz | November 17, 22:52 CET

Will "Saw" outsell "Cabin"? Probably. Does that make "Saw" any less garbage? Of course not.

patxshand | November 17, 22:52 CET

I don't think it's unreasonable for the director to say that they don't see Cabin in the Woods interfering with their numbers.

Which probably is why Cabin was set for Oct 23 back when it was at least semi-presumed that Saw wouldn't open until Oct 30.

[ edited by theonetruebix on 2008-11-17 22:58 ]

The One True b!X | November 17, 22:57 CET

There is going to be a Saw VI? There was a Saw IV? ;)

After the second one I have to admit that I lost interest to the point where I only watched the third after a great deal of nagging from a friend. Didn't enjoy it at all.

Highlander | November 17, 23:31 CET

Saw VI is going to stomp it (the minimum it'll make opening weekend is $25 million), but it seems a little strange that Saw isn't opening on October 30.

The Dark Shape | November 17, 23:34 CET

it seems a little strange that Saw isn't opening on October 30

<speculation>Which is why I wonder if they did this precisely to open it on Cabin's release date.</speculation>

The One True b!X | November 17, 23:36 CET

There's no reason to do that, though. Lionsgate isn't going to sabotage an MGM film. Either way, it'd be smart to move Cabin to either an early October slot, or Halloween weekend.

What'll be especially interesting here, as Whedon geeks go, is if Julie Benz returns for Saw VI.

[ edited by The Dark Shape on 2008-11-17 23:38 ]

The Dark Shape | November 17, 23:37 CET

but it seems a little strange that Saw isn't opening on October 30.

Maybe that's when Twilight 2 will be opening.

Simon | November 17, 23:43 CET

I've never seen a Saw movie, but I noticed that the new one has 12% at rottentomatoes. Impressively low. Hard to believe that VI will beat Cabin. (But I believe it anyway.)

jcs | November 17, 23:44 CET

Seems to me they'd have to move it up, not back. I'm skeptical that moving Cabin to the week after Saw opens make sense. Saw would pretty much be the main game once it opens, wouldn't it? At least if Cabin opens earlier, it has some time to itself.

(And I hardly see it as sabotage, I see it as competitive positioning. If the buzz on Cabin is good, having it playing for a week before Saw opens isn't something the Saw folk would want, is it?)

[ edited by theonetruebix on 2008-11-17 23:45 ]

The One True b!X | November 17, 23:44 CET

Cabin isn't going to have much of an effect on Saw one way or the other. Saw is at a point where its very much a fanbase franchise. Everyone rushes out opening weekend (hell, opening day), and that's it. Cabin in the Woods could have Trick 'r Treat buzz and still not steal a dollar away from Saw VI.

The Dark Shape | November 17, 23:52 CET

(And I hardly see it as sabotage, I see it as competitive positioning. If the buzz on Cabin is good, having it playing for a week before Saw opens isn't something the Saw folk would want, is it?)

Pretty much, just like how monday nights seems so crowded with tv shows in the US, and there are night's where there seems to be almost nothing interesting on air.

Trying to kill momentum, and use their already built in fanbase to gain on the opening weekend, is a good stratagem.

I did see the first two movies from the series, and I figured that wasn't exactly my cup of tea, but do understand what was becoming the new trend for "horror" movies, which did reach some really hard to grasp limits, like how some similar genre productions just became basically torture porn movies.

Numfar PTB | November 18, 00:02 CET

Horror movies are so front-loaded that Saw VI shouldn't affect Cabin too much if Cabin opens the 30th instead. Saw V's box office dropped over two-thirds in the 2nd weekend.

cabri | November 18, 00:04 CET

Cabin's going to need good marketing no matter when it opens.

Sunfire | November 18, 00:05 CET

Saw V also opened the weekend before Halloween. I'm guessing the thinking was: let's open a week before to get all the fans, and then hopefully the 2nd weekend will not suck too much with all the "Let's go see a horror movie on Halloween" types.

Based on the numbers, it looks to have done nothing though. Saw III had a 55% drop and IV a 67% drop. Neither had Halloween on the weekend itself though. Unless you think that V would have been a much steeper drop if the 2nd weekend wasn't on Halloween.

I agree though that Cabin will need some good marketing to draw people. Based on the "Horror Comedy" genre it is listed as at Box Office Mojo, it has an uphill battle with 5 movies ever breaking 100 million, and only 3 more breaking 50 million. Link

From what I recall, Cabin is budgeted at 25 million. If so, then it will need to break 50 million at the box office to be considered a hit (by the studio).

danregal | November 18, 00:32 CET

Last budget number I saw was $30M.

The One True b!X | November 18, 00:34 CET

What's scary is that no movie in the Horror Comedy genre has made over $35 mil in the last decade. Except for the Scary Movie franchise.

MGM might want to steer clear of calling this a horror/comedy in it's marketing.

danregal | November 18, 00:39 CET

Well, the weird thing is that I don't remember anyone involved in it ever actually calling it a horror/comedy. That doesn't mean it isn't, but no one involved has described it that way. The closest is Goddard saying: "It’s genius, it’s funny. It’s got a harder and darker edge, but it’s also got classic Whedon qualities."

The One True b!X | November 18, 00:43 CET

It's Goddard + Whedon. It's going to have to be wickedly funny even if it's scary as hell.

Sunfire | November 18, 00:50 CET

Yes, Rikardo, Saw is more popular than a film that does not yet exist. (Although the real question is, is it more popular than Cloverfield? I'm reckoning it isn't.)

When did CITW get this opening date? I somehow missed this. Cool.

daylight | November 18, 01:45 CET

I hope it's scary as hell. And makes me laugh.

korkster | November 18, 01:46 CET

Cabin set its date quite a while ago. Saw just set its date. Cabin will move.

TamaraC | November 18, 01:50 CET

When did CITW get this opening date?

Three months ago, like I said up above in the first comment here. ;)

The One True b!X | November 18, 02:00 CET

I think CITW would do well to sell itself as sort of the "Anti-Saw," seeing as it came about as a reaction toward those types of horror movies. I can imagine the preview saying something like "The return of the psychological horror/thriller," or something along those lines. I know lots of people that miss those types of horror movies.

ShanshuBugaboo | November 18, 02:21 CET

Saw V opened here in the UK a week before Hallowe'en, as Hallowe'en was taken by, oddly, Quantum Of Solace.

Craig Oxbrow | November 18, 04:11 CET

I think Saw will probably outperform Cabin in the box office, but not in tomatoes.

DavidB | November 18, 04:40 CET

There's something a little disconcerting to me about the sentiment of the phrase. "Stomp 'em still." Aren't these two pieces of artwork (opinions aside, and regarding the Saw films, I have very few) that will be displayed and not a horse race? I take comfort knowing at least that Joss Whedon and Drew Goddard are more interested in telling a damn good story than "beating" another film.

streetartist | November 18, 05:02 CET

Is there any chance in special Hell that these will actually end up being the final release dates, for both of them? I kind of doubt it.

Septimus | November 18, 05:08 CET

"Saw V" opened Oct. 24 this year, instead of Halloween. I actually went to see it last week and gave up trying to figure out how the various plotlines fit together. I think "Saw III" was the best of the franchise, because it actually looked at all the seeming plotholes in the first two films and answered them. This created a problem for "Saw IV," which had to go out of its way to create plotholes, and in "Saw V," I couldn't even figure out what they were trying to address in those terms. Julie Benz is good as a very tough character (with black hair for the role).

In any event, I agree with the posters above who observed that, by now, the "Saw" franchise exists on its own level. Unless it's a "Saw"-like film, I don't think another horror film opening on the same date would necessarily be direct competition -- people who like "Saw" see movies as "Saw" and not-"Saw," and people who wouldn't see a "Saw" film on a bet won't suddenly go, "Well, I have to see a horror film and I'm going to pick 'Saw' even though I've a) been avoiding them or b) seen a few and figure I've got the formula down already." And this is of course assuming that nobody changes their release dates.

Shapenew | November 18, 06:24 CET

This is most likely true. But I saw the first Saw and that was FAR more than enough. Never seeing any others.

UnpluggedCrazy | November 18, 06:52 CET

Liked the first 'Saw' well enough (but not well enough to watch the others after the marketing put me off). It'd likely beat CitW if they went head to head but as others have said, they probably won't (though i'm also a bit perturbed by the relatively high budget, horror movies are a good studio bet because they're cheap and Cabin isn't, comparatively speaking at least).

Saw V opened here in the UK a week before Hallowe'en, as Hallowe'en was taken by, oddly, Quantum Of Solace.

That might be to do with the US release as much as anything since Bond movies are maybe the only big studio movies that traditionally open in the UK ahead of the US and the US release is apparently timed to bolster the box-office leading into Thanksgiving. And all bow before Bond at the UK box office, any "franchise" would be daft to run against QoS.

(I really liked it BTW, not as good as 'Casino Royale' but way better than some of the reviews might lead you to believe IMO)

Saje | November 18, 10:59 CET

I think Cabin will stay where it is. 'cos. There's room for another franchise out there.

gossi | November 18, 13:13 CET

Saw left me rather cold, so I can't comment on the four sequels. Is that series now becoming like "Friday the 13th", with its formulaic nine sequels?

OneTeV | November 18, 13:48 CET

Has Cabin in The Woods started filming yet? Isn't setting a release date a bit premature?

war_machine | November 18, 14:26 CET

war_machine, it starts filming in March (actors strike yadadada), with pre-production with Joss and Drew (etc etc) taking place from early next year onwards. Although I'd imagine they're already thinkin' 'bout it. Joss isn't the showrunner on Dollhouse so it should free him time for Cabin.

As long as the post production goes to schedule it should be fine for release.

[ edited by gossi on 2008-11-18 14:48 ]

[ edited by gossi on 2008-11-18 14:48 ]

gossi | November 18, 14:48 CET

Um... Joss isn't the showrunner on Dollhouse? :( I thought I was keeping up with all the news...

miri47 | November 18, 17:09 CET

Strictly speaking, he never has been AFAIK. It's been Elizabeth Craft and Sarah Fain since quite near the start.

Saje | November 18, 17:13 CET

March? What happened to February?

The One True b!X | November 18, 18:14 CET

November 17 2008