April 05 2009
'Fox leaning toward Dollhouse renewal' according to Airlock Alpha.
The site, formerly known as SyFy Portal, says "Fox is looking to give its struggling "Dollhouse" a second season, to see if it can grow some legs on a new night".
sumogrip | April 05, 22:25 CET
Simon | April 05, 22:26 CET
Of course, it won't work. :D
crazygolfa | April 05, 22:27 CET
XanMan | April 05, 22:31 CET
*cautiously crosses fingers*
ShanshuBugaboo | April 05, 22:31 CET
@theonetruebix | April 05, 22:35 CET
Do it, Fox.
Give it a full season order, too. Just to show how confident you are. Then we, as fans, will be able to much more confidently recommend it to our friends.
[ edited by Dirk on 2009-04-06 07:36 ]
Dirk | April 05, 22:36 CET
kishi | April 05, 22:36 CET
Jobo, I think I may need glasses, as I thought you were saying 'No, Dawn hopes', and was trying to work out why Dawn wouldn't enjoy 'Dollhouse' being renewed. Heh.
missb | April 05, 22:40 CET
[ edited by jperiodrperiod on 2009-04-06 07:43 ]
jperiodrperiod | April 05, 22:42 CET
dottikin | April 05, 22:45 CET
@theonetruebix | April 05, 22:46 CET
Rune | April 05, 22:47 CET
SteppeMerc | April 05, 22:51 CET
As for TSCC, the show debuted strongly, had a ton of exposure in terms of advertising and eyeballs (it got ~18 million viewers for it's pilot), and yet the ratings slid consistently downward. The second episode had half that number, half. And it's currently at less than 4 million viewers each week. The network has valid reasons for thinking the show will never break out.
dottikin | April 05, 22:54 CET
katayla | April 05, 23:01 CET
gossi | April 05, 23:06 CET
badwolf | April 05, 23:17 CET
badwolf | April 05, 23:17 CET
gossi | April 05, 23:20 CET
Mercenary | April 05, 23:22 CET
Rune | April 05, 23:26 CET
Daburcor | April 05, 23:26 CET
Yes, my hopes are also having a man reaction.
Which, considering my anatomy, is kinda... weird.
crystalsinger | April 05, 23:34 CET
insistondoubt | April 05, 23:40 CET
Fox, I'm hoping for. Say anything soon.
Thursnext | April 05, 23:52 CET
nyrk | April 05, 23:55 CET
Going back and reading the ratings thread should put that to rest. :P
Rhodey | April 05, 23:57 CET
deathisyourart | April 06, 00:09 CET
Please let this be true. I'll be sad to see Terminator go, but I love Dollhouse a great deal more. And maybe just maybe, if the stars align, Summer can join Dollhouse as a doll, thus allowing me to still see her weekly on TV.
This. A woman can dream as well. What a beautiful thought!
Fox should at least give it another 12 eps. I'd love 12 great eps instead of 22 that might not be so great. Or move it to FX. Or something. There are a few good reasons Fox should give it an extension. Very true that a new pilot could perform worse. Now that it feels like a Joss show, good stuff's a brewin'.
WhoIsOmega? | April 06, 00:36 CET
crhobbs42 | April 06, 00:38 CET
Now to read the article...
ThorpeWithoutShrimp | April 06, 00:45 CET
I read a quote this weekend by John Cleese from Clockwise this weekend:-
"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand. "
As said above, please let this be true.
strangeaction | April 06, 00:46 CET
After Friday's ratings I had pretty much concluded that 'Dollhouse' was never going to get a second season. I was beginning to get into the mindset of "appreciate these last few episodes and consider them the final episodes of the show.” Now I've read this I have hope again, which means that if it does get cancelled I'm even more shattered than I would have been before.
vampmogs | April 06, 00:58 CET
My hopes are officially up again.
J.I.G. | April 06, 01:02 CET
That aside, this is an unattributed rumour from a site and a journalist I don't know so my 'Dollhouse' hope level is staying on Puce.
Saje | April 06, 01:25 CET
toast | April 06, 01:56 CET
Basically my attitude for the last 4-5 weeks has been "I doubt 'Dollhouse' will get a second season but if it does, great, if not then we'll get a boxed set and then we get to see what Joss comes up with next". This article hasn't changed that even slightly.
Saje | April 06, 02:37 CET
LaneMeyer | April 06, 02:38 CET
chazman | April 06, 03:30 CET
Still, I won't deny a brief uptick in the old hopemeter.
Septimus | April 06, 03:35 CET
Leaf | April 06, 03:45 CET
Princessofdarkness | April 06, 03:57 CET
Krusher | April 06, 04:01 CET
I won't believe anything until the deed is done. And since some picked up shows have not even aired on FOX (i.e. Still Life), I still would be uncomfortable about a second season.
Qixotl | April 06, 04:09 CET
Ivalaine | April 06, 05:07 CET
This is NOT a final decision yet, however, and is only a "lean toward." It seems that there is enough strength in the show and its financial viability to continue it more, but I'm sure a small boost in its audience couldn't hurt. Maybe it will depend on what Fox replaces "Sarah Connor" as the lead-in.
Simon, by the way, is there a way to change this name to like AlphaMichael? I don't own the rights to "SyFy" anymore. :)
AlphaMichael | April 06, 05:28 CET
Simon | April 06, 05:29 CET
@saje (about ratings trending downward) -- I have not seen a downward trend outside of the premiere (and you typically DO get a downward trend immediately following a hyped premiere).
"Dollhouse" premiered with an overnight of 2.8HH, and over the next four episodes, fell 18 percent to a 2.3. But in the fifth episode, it bounced back 13 percent and was off just 7 percent from its premiere, and has pretty much stayed there ever since. So the ratings did go downward initially, but are right now just a few percentage points off its premiere.
Also, in terms of our track record, Airlock Alpha has existed (albeit under two previous names) for 11 years, and if there is one thing that we're usually pretty good at, it's renewals and cancellations. We were the first to announce Buffy's and Angel's cancellations, for instance, as well as Firefly. That doesn't mean we're always right. One of the risks of doing rumor reports is that you get "snapshot" information, meaning, you are getting information from that moment, but could change. We saw that with "Jericho" after we were told it WOULD get a second season, and then the network changed its mind at the last minute, and with "Sarah Connor's" full-season pickup this year, as we were given the information before Warner Bros. TV slashed its license fee.
And as we say in this story, this is only a rumor. And it's a snapshot of where the network stands right now. A lot can happen between now and an official decision.
@Septimum (about us seeking pageviews) -- Of course ANY site is looking to post pageviews, that's the nature of the business. We (meaning AA and even Whedonesque) update regularly as a means to that end as well. However, we do not just post news for the sake of building traffic. We're not into sensationalism. We report what we feel is newsworthy based on sources we have developed over a long period of time. Sometime we're right, sometimes we're wrong. But we don't post anything that we don't fully stand behind. :)
@Qixotl (Articles like this seem rather pointless in regards to FOX. Even if they are at the moment leaning towards picking up Dollhouse for a full season, they will change their minds many times before Upfronts occur in 6-8 weeks.) -- Very true. Which is why it is only a snapshot in time.
AlphaMichael | April 06, 05:44 CET
Squishy | April 06, 05:52 CET
doubtful guest | April 06, 05:52 CET
"Dollhouse" premiered with an overnight of 2.8HH, and over the next four episodes, fell 18 percent to a 2.3. But in the fifth episode, it bounced back 13 percent and was off just 7 percent from its premiere, and has pretty much stayed there ever since. So the ratings did go downward initially, but are right now just a few percentage points off its premiere.
I've been going by
The overnight recap:
Episode 1 - 4.8 million, 2.0 in 18-49 demo.
Episode 2 - 4.3 million, 1.7 in 18-49 demo. 5% share.
Episode 3 - 4.2 million, 1.6 in 18-49 demo. 5% share.
Episode 4 - 3.5 million, 1.5 in 18-49 demo, 5% share.
Episode 5 - 4.3 million, 1.6 in 18-49 demo, 5% share.
Episode 6 - 4.1 million, 1.5 in 18-49 demo, 5% share.
Episode 7 - 3.9 million, 1.3 in 18-49 demo, 4% share. (In the finals it was 1.4 in 18-49 demo).
Episode 8 - 3.5 million, 1.4 in 18-49 demo, 5% share.
Where the Live numbers seem to be dropping although admittedly the share is holding fairly steady. Let's discount "Watchmen week" as an outlier, then we have 4.8, 4.3, - , 4.2, 4.3, 4.1, 3.9. 3.5. That's surely a downwards trend ? It's not precipitous but it is down. Course, maybe a low but steady share is enough for Fox to renew, I certainly won't complain if that turns out to be the case.
Saje | April 06, 05:52 CET
Never heard of the blipnetwork thing and it may be something that only comes into play with bubble shows. That Dollhouse is second to Reaper isn't too inspiring considering Reaper's current rating woes.
ETA Evidently the blip thing is a measure that the site developed itself.
[ edited by helcat on 2009-04-06 15:14 ]
helcat | April 06, 06:10 CET
You know,pairing Dollhouse with Fringe might be good fit.
Disappointing news about The Sarah Connor Chronicles.Sounds like the only reason that got a second season is because Warner Bros. wanted to use it to promote this summers new Terminator film.
When are the Fox upfronts?
[ edited by Buffyfantic on 2009-04-06 15:16 ]
[ edited by Buffyfantic on 2009-04-06 15:17 ]
Buffyfantic | April 06, 06:16 CET
Is there a list of previous Blipnetwork scores/predictions alongside the actual outcome (cancelled/renewed) ? Then I guess we could at least judge how accurate it's been (beyond anecdotes I mean).
Saje | April 06, 06:18 CET
I really, really hope we get more DH. It was good at the start but has been great these last few weeks.
alexreager | April 06, 06:19 CET
My largest concern about the article was that the rumor was entirely unattributed, not even giving a characterization of the source (Fox insider, person close to Joss, internet rumor, Ouija board, etc.). I assume you can't give that information or you would have, but the lack of it is the kind of thing that makes me skeptical.
Septimus | April 06, 06:19 CET
Buffyfantic | April 06, 06:22 CET
Ah, but is it a statistically significant downwards trend compared to other viewing figure trends?
flugufrelsarinn | April 06, 06:35 CET
A very late response to Saje: The ratings aren't trending downwards. I'd call them stable.
If FOX finds a way to monetize off a second season, it would be a wise move for them. The sets are already there, so the initial costs will be lower. If they move it to a new timeslot and give it another 13 episodes to grow, it will prove their promises of having faith in the show to build a stable audience, slowly.
J.I.G. | April 06, 06:42 CET
Also, if Fox does take into consideration the number of viewers who record the show for later viewing, or view it online via Hulu, iTunes, Amazon, and its own website, the numbers are a bit bigger than just what the Nielsens count.
Nebula1400 | April 06, 06:43 CET
Linnea1928 | April 06, 06:52 CET
Sure, DVR (etc.) might count more for 'Dollhouse' since it apparently has good C3 numbers. We don't know how Fox are counting those. Just to be clear, i'm not saying there's no hope and never have. I'm saying that right now my hope is where it was 8 hours ago and until I hear something concrete from either Joss or Fox that's likely where it'll stay.
Ah, but is it a statistically significant downwards trend compared to other viewing figure trends?
I'll leave that as an exercise for someone that can be arsed ;).
(3.5 million is more than one deviation from the mean though)
A very late response to Saje: The ratings aren't trending downwards. I'd call them stable.
3.9 to 3.5 is downwards. Those're the ratings and they're going down, that seems undeniable. Not as much in relative terms (i.e. the share is fairly stable) but there must come a point where they're just not getting the advertising eyeballs to justify the outlay, no matter how stable the share is.
Still, pilots are expensive and arguably even riskier than a known property so they may plump for 'Dollhouse' over a leap into the unknown.
Saje | April 06, 07:05 CET
Sunfire | April 06, 07:19 CET
We'll see. I am cautiously optimistic.
Nebula1400 | April 06, 07:27 CET
Septimus | April 06, 07:33 CET
[ edited by helcat on 2009-04-06 16:42 ]
helcat | April 06, 07:35 CET
Rachelkachel | April 06, 07:44 CET
Does anyone know what the online viewing (Hulu and Fox.com) numbers look like? Are they being counted?
joni | April 06, 07:46 CET
[ edited by Dana5140 on 2009-04-06 16:52 ]
Dana5140 | April 06, 07:52 CET
AFAIK the DVR numbers are very steady at around 1.5 million per week. But obviously if the live numbers are going down and the DVR numbers are "only" holding steady then the total number of viewers will still be falling.
Added to that is how much importance Fox attaches to the DVR numbers - a 30% increase looks great until you consider that Fox may count DVR viewers as half (or less) of a live viewer (AFAIK we don't know how they weight them). And as helcat points out, a big percentage increase in this case largely just means that the initial viewership is pretty low.
Saje | April 06, 07:54 CET
I still get a little lost in the whole "...20th Century Fox Television is still the primary production company involved, which means its licensing fee is not as steep as it would be if the show was produced by another studio." I know studio and network are different, but does this mean ANY fox studio show is basically expected to discount its price to the network? This would, of course, be a good thing for survival chances if true.
doubtful guest | April 06, 07:58 CET
@doubtful guest (about BlipNetwork and the Stability Index Rating) -- the BlipNetwork is the network of sites that includes Airlock Alpha, Rabid Doll and Inside Blip, the latter which has not been launched yet. The SIR is a metric I developed more than a year ago as a tool to see how well shows were holding their audiences. Obviously, networks are more comfortable selling shows when they have a good idea they will hit their target numbers, which usually requires stability. This is just one metric we created to help show stability, and we make it clear in the story that Fox does NOT use our metrics. :)
@saje (about downward trend) -- I don't use demo numbers in my research, but instead full audience numbers. I use overnights rather than full numbers because I like to have a comparative metric in examining numbers and I'm too impatient to wait for final numbers. =P However, the HH ratings I have are: 2.8, 2.7, 2.6, 2.3 (this was the decline I talked about), 2.6 (the bounce back up), 2.6, 2.5, 2.5. Just to note that Zap2it reported a 2.2 for last Friday's episode, but those aren't the numbers I received (and they don't match up with Fox's average for the night -- there is no way a 2.2 and a 2.2 averages to a 2.4, no matter what math you use, hehehe).
@septimus (about being snippy) ... it's perfectly OK. :) No hard feelings at all. In terms of the source, I don't always characterize sources, especially right now that Fox is clamping down on everything hard. If a source asks me not to identify his or her position, I have to honor that. I know that doesn't help in how you take the news or not, but sadly, there isn't much more I can do. I can say that almost all of my talk of where shows continue or end comes from upper management in the network, or someone associated with them.
AlphaMichael | April 06, 08:02 CET
@doubtful guest (I know studio and network are different, but does this mean ANY fox studio show is basically expected to discount its price to the network? This would, of course, be a good thing for survival chances if true.) -- Actually, what it means is not a discount, but more or less that the company is paying itself. It's like if I had Airlock Alpha, my science-fiction site, start charging my horror site Rabid Doll for news content, it's basically charging myself. I can make it as high or as low as I want, but essentially, the money all goes to the same place.
AlphaMichael | April 06, 08:07 CET
For instance, I can tell you that CBS is less interested in the 18-25 demo, and maybe even the 18-49 demo than most other networks, simply because they have a belief that 35+ have more disposable income, thus are a more desired audience of advertisers, than say the 18-25 crowd that many try to reach.
Also, you have some that are more interested in capturing the female or male demographic, or other very specific demos, and it makes it hard to do an apples to apples comparison. At least by looking at overall numbers, we can get a better picture, plus a better way to compare.
Not that advertisers aren't focused on demos. They are. And they play an important role in the fate of a series. But it's kind of tough to say that the adult 18-49 demographic is the only demo they care about.
AlphaMichael | April 06, 08:10 CET
I've got an article going up on Dollverse later on tonight about this, with quotes from the network on the record and opinion from the studio off the record.
gossi | April 06, 08:22 CET
Emmie | April 06, 08:35 CET
J.I.G. | April 06, 08:55 CET
[ edited by gossi on 2009-04-06 18:04 ]
gossi | April 06, 09:03 CET
Ameer | April 06, 09:04 CET
This is a confusing statement, unless I'm mis-reading it, since we already know the "what", but the statement reads like we don't: Prison Break.
@theonetruebix | April 06, 09:09 CET
But I agree that Dollhouse is most stable in the Household rating, probably because those ratings have the biggest sample and therefore much less variation in general. Same thing goes for overall viewers: Here it scores 85% (average/maximum). But both 18-49 and 25-54 are under 80%.
gossi, looking at the Household rating, it did trend up for two consecutive weeks (2.2>2.5>2.6) between episode 4 and 6 based on final nationals. It seems to be more stable in that regard, but I agree that overall, and looking at the demos the show is trending down. Till now, that is. :)
wiesengrund | April 06, 09:13 CET
doubtful guest | April 06, 09:23 CET
gossi | April 06, 09:25 CET
I took him to task once for his frequent citation of anonymous sources, and he defended himself saying he's a serious journalist who has won awards, who does not have to prove to his readers that he has an actual source. So, take that for whatever the heck it means.
will.bueche | April 06, 10:08 CET
gossi | April 06, 10:11 CET
J.I.G. | April 06, 10:11 CET
[ edited by gossi on 2009-04-06 19:17 ]
gossi | April 06, 10:17 CET
Septimus | April 06, 10:18 CET
Maybe you should have had Rutherford B. Actualperson ask the questions.
:D
Other than that, I have nothing to say, like others have said, I'm expecting the worse, hoping for the best.
crazygolfa | April 06, 10:39 CET
The last 2 questions especially, very helpful :)
jfhlbuffy | April 06, 10:40 CET
Squishy | April 06, 10:42 CET
If Prison Break gets it's hypothetical 5.1 and "Dollhouse" still goes right back down to it's 3.5, they'll know that "Dollhouse" has a pretty static audience.
KingofCretins | April 06, 10:42 CET
KoC, what you just said is exactly what I heard (today) Fox is thinking. That's why they're waiting it out.
gossi | April 06, 10:56 CET
Gota luv that Buffy | April 06, 10:57 CET
josswhedonaddict | April 06, 11:12 CET
Yes, I already talked about this aspect of it, and you can scroll up to read more. :)
I've got an article going up on Dollverse later on tonight about this, with quotes from the network on the record and opinion from the studio off the record.
I read it and tried to post a response, but apparently either it hasn't gone through yet, or it didn't work. But just for the record here: We never claimed the SIR was used by the network or any network. In fact, the story specifically states "It's not a number that Fox uses" right before I share SIR information. This has always been internal information for us, and ways that we can illustrate possibilities and see if rumors have legs.
Also, if the studio would admit to rumors and such, then I wouldn't have to report on rumors anymore, because then it would be official. That's why they are rumors.
Fox may announce the fate of "Dollhouse" in May, but I can guarantee you that a decision will be made long before that, contrary to your last part of your Q&A.
Finally, I don't see anything in my story where I talk about the lead-in show to "Dollhouse" once "Sarah Connor" goes off the air. Maybe I talked about it here, but if I don't know what the lead-in is, it's not suddenly proof that I am wrong. I only cover science-fiction and related genre shows, and since "Prison Break" is not one of those shows, I can not simply name the new lead-ins off the top of my head.
You may run a "Dollhouse"-centric site where you can keep up with even the smallest details, which is great and I love that, but please don't expect a site that covers a much wider area to be able to do the same. :)
I hope you are interested in making those updates to your Q&A so at the very least you represent me fairly, as I would hope you would expect from me. :)
Thanks!
AlphaMichael | April 06, 12:09 CET
Very good question ... this more commonly comes up when you are dealing with a production studio that is not under the same ownership as the network, for instance, Warner Bros. TV producing "Sarah Connor Chronicles" on Fox -- two different companies.
It has nothing to do with charging less for less. When we are dealing with a production company paying a studio a fee, this is more or less a formality to help make sure the right people are paid for what they do. The people at Fox Television, for instance, get a certain amount of the license fee paid by a network, whether it's from ABC, CBS, Fox, etc. By setting a license fee even amongst properties under the same corporate ownership, you are able to make sure that the people who get compensated based on that fee remain compensated.
However, the rest of the fee is a paper shift, not an actual dollar shift. And that's the biggest difference here.
Say the network pays $2 million per episode, and certain people with the production company get 25 percent of that. If the network and production company are under the same ownership, they will still pay out the 25 percent, but the other 75 percent is simply a paper shift. So lowering a license fee would mean less for the people who get paid based on that fee, but still, the majority of the fee is being paid to itself.
I don't know if that makes any sense .. =P
AlphaMichael | April 06, 12:17 CET
Please cite this specifically where it was said in this way and in this context.
I think you are summarizing a number of conversations into a nice little package that is actually mischaracterizing everything that was said and is shining this in an untrue light, and I would appreciate you not doing that.
As with all unnamed sources, we cannot sometimes identify where they come from specifically. That is the way it is. Networks, studios, you name it, have worked hard to crack down on leaks such as this, and I have committed to making sure that we protect them because this is their LIVELIHOOD we're talking about.
If there was any discussions on awards and such, it was out of discussion on why I should be personally trusted to do this compared to some blogger or something, and it was in an attempt to show that I have done this for a long time, and have been recognized for my work as a journalist, thus I take my credibility very seriously.
These kinds of attacks are unwarranted, and unnecessary for this conversation, and I won't respond to them again.
AlphaMichael | April 06, 12:21 CET
I'm reliably told they're holding off deciding about Dollhouse until they're got a few of the Dollhouse & Prison Break numbers in, to see how it pairs with (they think) a bigger lead in.
If anybody wonders how the economics of 20th knocking down the licensing fee could work - Firefly, obviously, sold a lot of DVDs and made Fox a lot of money. In terms of viewers, with DVR taken into account, Dollhouse has a lot more eyes. If Fox can keep it on the air for a few years, it will likely sell way more DVDs than Firefly, which equates to a lot of money. So the argument - which isn't a simple one - is should 20th shuffle things around and in the hope of making it back in total long term. I don't know is my answer.
[ edited by gossi on 2009-04-06 21:25 ]
gossi | April 06, 12:22 CET
What is the name of the episode airing May 8th?
ShanshuBugaboo | April 06, 12:36 CET
gossi | April 06, 12:36 CET
QuanticoMVP | April 06, 12:41 CET
It was here, yes. And I referenced it because I always challenge reporters whose pieces suggest they can't be bothered to look up easily found facts. It's nothing personal, I just find it a bit lazy. (And it's the sort of thing best avoided, because if a reader can so easily realize that a reporter hasn't bothered to look up a simply-known fact, it feeds into reader skepticism on the rest, whether or not the skepticism is actually warranted.)
ETA that obviously it being in the context of a discussion thread, which it was, is a little less problematic than if it had ben in the article, which it wasn't. ;)
[ edited by The One True b!X on 2009-04-06 21:54 ]
@theonetruebix | April 06, 12:45 CET
embers | April 06, 13:05 CET
However, the rest of the fee is a paper shift, not an actual dollar shift. And that's the biggest difference here.
Say the network pays $2 million per episode, and certain people with the production company get 25 percent of that. If the network and production company are under the same ownership, they will still pay out the 25 percent, but the other 75 percent is simply a paper shift. So lowering a license fee would mean less for the people who get paid based on that fee, but still, the majority of the fee is being paid to itself.
Thank you for that, AlphaMichael. That's something that's been coming up for years on this board, without even much of a useful framework for discussion, and you've provided one. Thank you. Please don't get a thin skin about people doubting you because they don't know you. Stick around and you'll find this is one of the most civil of boards.
dreamlogic | April 06, 13:33 CET
gossi | April 06, 13:45 CET
bubblecat | April 06, 13:48 CET
I'm not sure I can take much more of this uncertainty. I really want this show to be renewed. Hope is scary, even if it seems there's cause for only a very little, tiny droplet of hope.
phlebotinin | April 06, 13:55 CET
Actually, in that link Seidman -- even if he's correct -- doesn't cite or mention any sources, even unnamed or uncharacterized ones. He just speculates based upon the ratings themselves. Hinman -- even if he's incorrect -- in his piece is reporting the scuttlebutt he's hearing from someone.
@theonetruebix | April 06, 14:04 CET
I can see the logic of Alpha's (waaait...a minuet) post and I can see the logic in Gossi's standpoint. I presume that our arguments (in the sense of debate) are the same as what is going on in Fox HQ, although with more spreadsheets and erm less emotion.
bubblecat | April 06, 14:06 CET
phlebotinin | April 06, 14:07 CET
Simon | April 06, 14:11 CET
bubblecat | April 06, 14:13 CET
@theonetruebix | April 06, 14:21 CET
GVH | April 06, 14:24 CET
QuoterGal | April 06, 14:26 CET
Yes, and also doesn't address the issue of the two Fox's shared earnings (I still want to hear more about that), and, assuming he's referring to the topic article of this thread, apparently hasn't read it, if he thinks it's about critical acclaim.
bad spelling
[ edited by dreamlogic on 2009-04-06 23:29 ]
dreamlogic | April 06, 14:26 CET
I bought Firefly 'cuz I wanted to see the unaired episodes. I have since watched each ep probably fifty times or more. Same for Serenity. Then again Firefly is my all-time fave tv series.
While I watch Dollhouse each week and hope for its renewal, my only reason for purchasing the season one DVD would be for the always awesome comentary from Whedon and cast. I can only begin to imagine all of the exciting tidbits we will get (especially, sadly, if it only runs one season).
For the record, I think commentary on almost every movie or show I have watched is so bad that I don't even access them anymore. Firefly was the first DVD where I realized how rich and satisfying commentary could be. Serenity followed suit.
To my original point though, I don't see Dollhouse selling even nearly as well as any of the previous shows. Then again I am not a DVD-aholic. Nor do I pay attention to itunes and such. I hear that Dollhouse does well with it, but I don't know the definition of "well" in this context.
[ edited by lottalettuce on 2009-04-06 23:32 ]
lottalettuce | April 06, 14:28 CET
[ edited by lottalettuce on 2009-04-06 23:31 ]
lottalettuce | April 06, 14:31 CET
gossi | April 06, 14:33 CET
embers | April 06, 14:43 CET
(I am assuming (?correctly?) that only one entity on the production side (ie 20th C. Fox) negotiates with the network, and that all of the proportional ownership goes on "behind the curtain" between those co-owning production companies through some process of eventual consensus. That is, I am assuming that the Network does NOT have to individually deal with every production company that gets to put a cute logo after the credits on the show. I guess I am also assuming that all of the sorts of people who get paid based on percentages of things like the licensing fees are the big players like Joss or Eliza and a few others, and that these people tend to be under the umbrella of "Mutant Enemy," etc, NOT under the umbrella of "20th Century Fox." Am I even close?)
doubtful guest | April 06, 14:43 CET
Does it Simon? Which ones? I see other sites muse that its easy just to make something up and call it a rumor.
That Dollhouse is dead if it doesn't hit 1.7 really really quick.
Hunted | April 06, 16:35 CET
I think Dollhouse tends to be good business for the production company, but not so much for the broadcaster. But since both the network and the major producer belong to the same group they could work something out.
The budget that was announced for Dollhouse early when Joss and Eliza first took the idea to FOX is bigger than that of most shows, and specially if Remote-free TV is gone, they could make episodes a little cheaper. Just a thought.
I think Dollhouse moving to another place is out of the question because of Eliza's development deal with the network, but since she signed it, it's been almost two years, so maybe if the deal expires they could share or move the show to FX, which I believe is also owned by News Corp.
[ edited by danielgm86 on 2009-04-07 02:03 ]
dnlmglhs | April 06, 16:56 CET
I know this is probably a bit hard to accept: But reporters don't know everything. Nor do they always have the time to put every single detail together.
There is a lot of confusion over what a site specific to a show does and a site that tries to cover a wider gamut. We cover a wider gamut, and many times, I am putting together stories as quickly as I can IN MY SPARE TIME. I have a life outside the site. Hell, I have a paying job outside the site. I cannot be here as a receptacle of every single item out there, so that when I take my time to discuss this here on Whedonesque, something I do because I feel it's important to be accessible and to discuss things (I mean, there are few places with savvier readers than Whedonesque), that I can grab every tidbit of information when necessary.
If it's necessary for you to judge that I didn't have the "Prison Break" information on hand in the middle of a discussion here in this comment section, then that is your choice. It seems like an odd way to approach something, but if it makes you happy, then I don't have the heart to stop you.
AlphaMichael | April 06, 18:30 CET
@hunted Whether you would like to accept it or not, I can't control that. All I can say is that I've been around for more than a decade, and our reputation is based on our ability to dig up rumors and have the right sources.
I will give you a more recent example of proof, however. Although we stopped doing spoilers with "Battlestar Galactica," I can tell you that we successfully reported the identity of the Final Cylon (we actually didn't reveal it, but listed five people who could be the final Cylon, and guaranteed that one of them WAS the final Cylon. We included Ellen Tigh in the list). We also stated that the Earth they found in the middle of Season 4 is not our Earth we're on now. We even reported that the final scene of the series would take place in New York City (that was reported on New Year's Eve).
So I guess I'm just very lucky? :)
AlphaMichael | April 06, 18:40 CET
[ edited by The One True b!X on 2009-04-07 03:55 ]
@theonetruebix | April 06, 18:49 CET
Fox, or should we say the overall company of News Corp., will benefit more from alternative post-broadcast distribution methods than if it were a show from another network.
For instance, "Battlestar Galactica" may have lasted a little bit longer than its ratings would indicate (based on the cost of the show) because the show was produced by NBCU, and was broadcast on one of its outlets. That means any DVD, iTunes, or other distribution post-broadcast would come back to benefit NBCU.
But it's a different story for, say, "Stargate SG-1." While SciFi Channel had a chance to air and make money off of the original broadcast of the series, the fact is, MGM produces the show, so anything it does outside of its broadcast goes into the coffers of MGM rather than NBCU. So even thought "Atlantis" may have been cheaper to produce than BSG, and maybe even generated more revenue than BSG in the broadcast schedule, the fact is that MGM collects the licensing fee, and will get the benefit of post-broadcast distribution nodes.
Does that mean Dollhouse is guaranteed a pickup? Of course not. "Firefly," as others have mentioned, was in a similar position -- produced by Fox Television (and ME and others, of course, as secondary shingles) and aired on Fox's network. But Fox didn't renew the show.
I never stated in any shape or form that Dollhouse was definitely coming back, or that a decision was even nearer. I received word that the show is not as doomed as some people think, and that Fox is considering allowing it time to develop in a second season, possibly on a new night. That is exactly what we reported. An analysis of the numbers, and yes using our own stability index rating system as just one tool in a box of many, was just added material to help give our readers -- who we feel to be as sophisticated as you would find right here on Whedonesque -- some additional analysis to consider.
I'm not here to drive people's hopes up. I would like to see the show come back. I wasn't impressed with the first couple of episodes, but after that, I've been glued, and I have enjoyed the overall story, and would like to see it continue. it's probably the most serious Joss Whedon production I have seen in a long time, but I think there's nothing wrong with that at all. Whedon is not just about comedy and demons and space cowboys -- he is capable of doing so much more than that.
I think a lot of the criticism here has been fair, and I appreciate that. For the minority that wasn't that fair, ::shrugs:: what can you do? There are people who are going to doubt others no matter what, either for legitimate reasons, or for whatever reasons they have. No one can change that ... and I stopped trying many years ago.
I can only report what I report. If the information ends up coming true, then great! If not, then we lick our wounds and move on to the next story.
I have been working on about 50 things at once right now (where I was supposed to have taken tonight off after work to just relax and get over this weird cold I have), so I haven't been able ti compile examples.
But just so you know that in regards to our past rumors, outside of some already mentioned here, we also were the first to report that when BSG was renewed for a fourth season of just 13 episodes, there was still a chance for a back nine. If that back-nine were ordered, however, it would indicate the end of the series.
Just weeks later, it was announced that BSG's back-nine had been picked up, and at the same time, it would be the show's final season.
There are so many more, but to be honest, I would have to go look them up. I try to remember everything, but it's hard to do. In fact, its easier for me to remember the times we ended up being wrong than right ... but that's just the perfectionist in me.
AlphaMichael | April 06, 19:13 CET
dnlmglhs | April 06, 19:20 CET
AlphaMichael | April 06, 19:25 CET
Emmie | April 06, 21:20 CET
Gossi and TheOneTrueB!x, you guys are well-respected round these parts, and I definitely enjoy both of you being here, but it just seems you're being a bit hard on AlphaMichael here... and I don't really know why. As he states, he never once said DH is coming back for sure... he had a source, who he admitted he can't name, and this is what the source said... that FOX is thinking about renewing it.
I don't understand the need to jump all over him.
AM, I, for one, am grateful for the article. Whether it comes true or not... we'll have to wait and see.
jfhlbuffy | April 06, 22:26 CET
My only point was that there frequently are entirely legitimate reasons people might be skeptical of any given reporter's material. And when one writes in public, one is subject to public questions about that writing. For any one person or another to voice skepticism, or to explain why they might have such skepticism isn't "jumping all over" anyone. It's part and parcel of vetting publicly reported or claimed information.
I've been on AlphaMichael's end of that dynamic. As has anyone who's involved themselves in any part of the world of reporting. You address it, you survive it, and then you go on to the next thing. Big whoop.
ETA some proof reading of really horrid typos.
[ edited by The One True b!X on 2009-04-07 07:37 ]
@theonetruebix | April 06, 22:34 CET
Nick C's recent quoting of Kevin Reilly in TV by the Numbers comments, Airlock Alpha's piece linked here, and Dollverse's follow-up of sorts to it all seem to me to have one thing in common:
Some person or persons at Fox would like to figure out a way to renew it if there's some sort of realistic method of doing so to be found somewhere. But ultimately that doesn't really tell us anything at this point.
Does that more or less sum it up?
@theonetruebix | April 06, 22:46 CET
Let Down | April 06, 23:17 CET
In fairness, their Renewal/Cancel index was demonstrably a reasonably accurate predictor (for scripted shows) last season. Can't find the Blipnetwork predictions for last season. Was the hit rate as good ?
As to the rest, I don't understand the basis for vehement argument either way. Alphamichael admits that his (totally understandably) unattributed information should be treated as at best how Fox feels now (though when "now" is/was isn't specified i.e. was it before or after the overnights for 'Needs' ?) and that it should be seen as a rumour and so that's how i'm treating it. And whether that's how Fox as a whole feels or how one executive feels or how one executive's PA interprets them as feeling etc. also can't be judged without knowing the source - again, that's unavoidable and understandable but still pertinent IMO. He isn't claiming it as concrete information about the fate of the show and so my position's unchanged i.e. i'm still waiting for concrete information about the fate of the show.
That said, if you post something on a public forum then people are free to respond to it and to question it and that's not a personal attack, that's just how thinking people should always respond to new information from any source.
Saje | April 07, 00:50 CET
b!X, you've absolutely summed it up as I hear it.
gossi | April 07, 01:38 CET
Due respect Alphamichael, but you do realize that Buffy wasn't "cancelled", right?
I'm guessing a slip of the brain.
I'm just along for the ride at this point, but I feel like boycotting network altogether, if they cancel both T:TSCC and Dollhouse. I have to admit to loving T:TSCC almost as much as I've come to love Dollhouse, over the last three eps.
So I'm going to be one really pissed-off camper, if we lose both. With BSG having just finished (*still sniffling with the occasional sob*), where's the SciFi? Where are the kick-ass women?
OK, I'm breaking my own rule about getting bitter in advance.
Blaaah.
Shey | April 07, 02:03 CET
Does that more or less sum it up?
The One True b!X | April 07, 07:46 CET
We sum up now ?? And with fewer than 150 comments??
Naaaa, never. ;)
Shey | April 07, 02:10 CET
Thanks for the sentiment! Sadly, if I bring cancellation news, people understandably get upset. So I had hoped if I had brought possible renewal news, people would be happy. I should've known better, hehehe! =P But it's OK. There are a lot of passionate people out there on both sides, and appreciate the comments. :)
@The One True B!X My only point was that there frequently are entirely legitimate reasons people might be skeptical of any given reporter's material.
Readers should always be skeptical of what they read, no matter what the source. Otherwise, they will simply believe everything they read. So I am all for that, even with the stuff I write. :)
And when one writes in public, one is subject to public questions about that writing. For any one person or another to voice skepticism, or to explain why they might have such skepticism isn't "jumping all over" anyone. It's part and parcel of vetting publicly reported or claimed information.
But there are ways to question and then there are ways to question. In your case, you decided to kick me around because here in this comment area I didn't say that "Prison Break" was replacing "Sarah Connor," and that was such common knowledge, that I would know that. Or that I should be researching to back up every single response I make here.
If I had included that in my story, and didn't state that I knew what the show was, then I would concede on this point, because you would be right. For me to write a story, I should at the very least make sure that I have the right information out there, and the most up-to-date. That is what readers expect of me, and if I didn't come through, then I hope you and 50,000 other people would jump on me about that.
But because I didn't have that knowledge in a discussion I had here, suddenly, it brought my whole story into question, and I didn't appreciate that. I don't have to come here and discuss this, but I am, because I care a lot about what you and others think and your thoughts on this. Also, the only way to make savvy readers more savvy is to be there to discuss things with them, and that way we BOTH learn a lot. :) I know I learn quite a bit in these discussions. :)
I've been on AlphaMichael's end of that dynamic. As has anyone who's involved themselves in any part of the world of reporting. You address it, you survive it, and then you go on to the next thing. Big whoop.
I have no hard feelings toward anyone here. I have thick skin, but that doesn't mean I'm not going to passionately defend myself where I need to defend myself (and admit mistakes where there are mistakes), so I do appreciate your responses. :)
AlphaMichael | April 07, 06:42 CET
@sage -- I don't want to get into a discussion about other sites and what they do, because to be honest, that's unfair to them.
Granted, this particular site took a potshot or two at me in their comments, but hey, what are you doing to do?
But in my brief opinion (because I don't want to speak too much on other sites unless they have the opportunity to talk about it), the renew/cancel index is nothing more than looking at a show's 18-49 average demo, and drawing a red line of pass-fail.
It's a bit elementary, and is completely simplifying a rather complex process. To say that shows live or die simply by an 18-49 average demo red line is really turning it into a crapshoot. A 95 percent accuracy? I'm sure it is. It's not that hard for many of us to look down a list of shows and see how it's averaging, and say what shows are going and what are not. But it's that 5 percent that is really interesting.
Using the site's system, "Sarah Connor" should've never received a full season pickup. Yet it did. We got that one wrong, too ... but at the same time, we were told of a position the network had taken at that moment in time. What changed was Warner Bros. TV slashing its licensing fee, which allowed the show to continue.
The index, as interesting as it is in concept, does not take any of those variables into account. It also would not accurately track the fate of CBS shows, because Les Moonves could care less about the 18-49 demo. He doesn't try to create shows that appeal in those demos, and if they hit it, great. If not, he has other demos he's more interested in.
Also, some shows could have stable 18-49 demos, but still face cancellation. For instance The CW cleaned house on a lot of shows a couple years back, despite stable ratings for most of them (which would've all been fails under this cancel/renew system) because they wanted to attract a FEMALE demo.
There is nothing wrong with this site's cancel/renew index. In fact, I think it's a cool thing to do. But it is nothing more than a crapshoot. Because to be honest, the best way to predict the fate of shows is not just by numbers, but also by network motivations. You have to know what those motivations are, and you have to know ALL (or at least most) of the variables that are involved.
Our "Sarah Connor" report ended up being considered a fail not because I'm a moron, but because we weren't told that Warner Bros. TV was willing to slash its licensing fee. I don't think even our source thought that was that much of a possibility at the time, especially in this economic environment.
But I prefer to be wrong because of some unexpected variable being thrown into the mix, then because I called heads and the quarter landed tails.
[ edited by AlphaMichael on 2009-04-07 15:54 ]
AlphaMichael | April 07, 06:43 CET
My bad, Saje. I can tell you that this was the position as of Sunday night. Whether they had that position before or after overnights, I don't know. I can only vouch for when I spoke with my source, which was Sunday.
@Shey Due respect Alphamichael, but you do realize that Buffy wasn't "cancelled", right? I'm guessing a slip of the brain.
Not a slip of the brain at all. A "cancellation" to me is any show that is pulled off the air. The order has been canceled by the network. I know that has come to mean something more negative, but it's a general term to mark a termination of a series, no matter what the reasons were, or who initiated it.
AlphaMichael | April 07, 07:00 CET
mister0 | April 07, 07:44 CET
In fact, I think it's a cool thing to do. But it is nothing more than a crapshoot.
Just to be clear, I haven't worked out if it's 95% accurate and it wasn't me that said that, it was gossi. But to say "it is nothing more than a crapshoot" is a bit daft - clearly it fares much better than chance (what I take it you mean by 'crapshoot') as far as predicting which shows will be cancelled or renewed. Or if you're actually saying you win at craps that often then please take me with you the next time you play ;).
So it might well be a simplification but it also clearly works in the majority of cases. That said, I agree it's the shows that seemingly defy the obvious predictions that make it interesting and I also agree that in order to actually know an outcome you have to be aware of ALL the variables. I think you'll agree that neither yourself nor TVbythenumbers are aware of ALL the variables at work here (though i'm happy to believe you're both acting in good faith according to the information you have) and that sources, as you note yourself, can be in the best of faith but still wrong or only partially informed.
So in other words, Fox hasn't decided yet which is good news IMO (because if they had it seems likely it'd be to cancel given the less than stellar performance so far) and when Fox decide, then we'll know. Until then, as you say yourself, we don't.
Saje | April 07, 07:52 CET
jkalderash | April 07, 08:06 CET
That is true ... I would classify myself as a journalist with inside sources, more than an insider myself.
Just to be clear, I haven't worked out if it's 95% accurate and it wasn't me that said that, it was gossi. But to say "it is nothing more than a crapshoot" is a bit daft - clearly it fares much better than chance (what I take it you mean by 'crapshoot') as far as predicting which shows will be cancelled or renewed. Or if you're actually saying you win at craps that often then please take me with you the next time you play ;).
I think my description of it is quite accurate. While the odds that their system works is better than a coin flip, it's not exactly the most logical way to take it. And the fact that they ignore outside variables, even when presented to them, makes me question the overall viability of it even more.
I don't have enough data on hand to show if the prediction model would hold that high of an accuracy rate in previous years, but I did point out specific examples that were fresh in my mind where the model would not have worked.
It would be like saying you can predict what will happen next year in the economy using nothing more than how stocks are ticking up or down over a period of time. While it might produce some semblance of accuracy, the accuracy is actually more artificial. I can look at 20 stocks and say, "This will go up, this will not," and I might even be 90 percent right. But how great of a predictor am I if I'm just looking at the ups and downs of the stock, and not taking anything else into account (like if the company is carrying a lot of debt, if they are about to lose a lawsuit, if they are about to make a major work force reduction, etc.).
That is where the "crapshoot" comment comes in. It might yield a high accuracy rate one year, but a low one the next. And it's the inconsistency of it that makes it crapshooting, not just results of a single year or a couple of years.
So it might well be a simplification but it also clearly works in the majority of cases.
And if that's the means you wish to use to determine the fate of shows, I respect that. Like I said, you might see strong results at some points, but weak results at other points. I feel that when making these types of predictions, more than just its baseline number should be considered.
I think you'll agree that neither yourself nor TVbythenumbers are aware of ALL the variables at work here (though i'm happy to believe you're both acting in good faith according to the information you have) and that sources, as you note yourself, can be in the best of faith but still wrong or only partially informed.
You are absolutely correct, and I have never denied that at all. In fact, that's the reason why we were wrong on the "Sarah Connor" pickup -- we didn't have all the variables.
And I can NEVER have all the variables anyway. Because there is one other variable that we cannot always predict -- how the man (or woman) in charge is going to decide. Sometimes, it's just a gut thing, and that's something we can't really predict. :)
So in other words, Fox hasn't decided yet which is good news IMO (because if they had it seems likely it'd be to cancel given the less than stellar performance so far) and when Fox decide, then we'll know. Until then, as you say yourself, we don't.
Exactly. :)
AlphaMichael | April 07, 08:14 CET
It's not too late yet. But sometimes, people start rallying for their show when it's too late.
And yes, sadly, one side or the other will say "I told you so!" but whether I'm right or my naysayers are right, that doesn't make one smarter than the other, or more attuned to ratings than anyone else.
That's what usually happens when I'm on the losing end of something like this. People use it to smack me around (while ignoring their own shortcomings, or the shortcomings of whatever outlet they supported), and it's just rude. If there is anything that eventually encourages me to retire from entertainment reporting, it's the whole arrogance that comes with being right.
Not that I have never been arrogant in my life. Hell, way too much. But at the same time, if "Dollhouse" is renewed, I won't be slapping this other site at all. I like their insights, and even if I disagree with some of their methodology and their propensity to kick around other news outlets (I have no idea why anyone would do that ... we all have the same goals in the end: To be fans), and we're all allowed to be wrong. Even them. Even me.
It's how we respond to being wrong (or being right) that really defines us, and it will be interesting to see how this turns out.
AlphaMichael | April 07, 08:20 CET
On unrelated topic: This is why I think not even Joss knows the extent of the importance of the Firefly DVDs getting Serenity greenlit three months later.
Joss only knows what the studio wanted him to know.
mister0 | April 07, 08:21 CET
Also there's the omniscience.
Sunfire | April 07, 08:26 CET
We've documented this eight ways to Sunday, a million times here. You can remove any and all of Joss' statements from the equation and it doesn't change those actual historical facts.
@theonetruebix | April 07, 08:32 CET
Joss only knows what the studio wanted him to know.
Would that still be how you felt if Joss had said categorically that the DVDs made it possible Succatash ? ;)
That is where the "crapshoot" comment comes in. It might yield a high accuracy rate one year, but a low one the next. And it's the inconsistency of it that makes it crapshooting, not just results of a single year or a couple of years.
OK but to say "it's a crapshoot" is a positive assertion, it's different than saying "We don't know, maybe it's a crapshoot". I.e. maybe this year or next year it'll be way off, maybe it's pure coincidence that they had any success with it at all. But right now (admittedly based on one season), the evidence is that it's quite accurate. And the results are at least tabulated and on display for each of us to judge for ourselves.
Does it work for every show ? No, clearly not, as can be seen from the table itself. Does your method ? Also clearly not, by your own admission. That's where the unknown variables come into it. But where predictions are concerned it makes sense to look at it on balance and on balance they're right much more often than they're wrong. If you're right as often as they are (preferably in predictions based on the same inside source this news came from) then it's literally a coin-toss as to who we should "believe".
Either way, it comes back to "We don't know, wait and see". Which has always been the case.
Saje | April 07, 08:33 CET
jfhlbuffy | April 07, 08:41 CET
I personally appreciate the renew/cancel index. They document other factors in the text, and if you're not "up" on all of the ratings for every show on every network, it's an excellent way to get a quick overview. I definitely make sure to check out the score for the five or six shows I watch. It's also an easy thing to point to in discussions about other shows - e.g., posters on HIMYM boards have been stressing about the show getting only a four-episode order (terrible, I know), so it's reassuring to look at the nice green entry for the show on the renew/cancel index.
jkalderash | April 07, 08:44 CET
Sort of. I'd rather hear it from Mary Parent's boss's boss. ;)
Joss wasn't given a clear ultimatum by Universal saying, "We need X amount of DVDs sold." It doesn't mean there wasn't one behind the scenes, as it's hard to prove a negative.
But if Universal HAD announced an official DVD ultimatum, things would be much more clear cut and transparent, easier to prove and believe without all the armchair quarterback "he said, she said" quotes that fly around.
ETA: And, of course, I am far more likely to question something that doesn't make any sense. ;)
[ edited by Succatash on 2009-04-07 21:54 ]
mister0 | April 07, 08:58 CET
The thing is, Bix - there are tons of movies that studios/creators want to make that get stuck in development and never happen. There's an official greenlight for a reason.
mister0 | April 07, 09:02 CET
I sure hope they take into account Hulu viewings, because in our broadcastless household the internet is the only way we watch.
I think in regards to the renewal of Dollhouse, I will apply a lesson learned in the army: I will believe it after I've finished watching the Season 2 Premier.
BreathesStory | April 07, 10:14 CET
Renewal!
AlphaMichael | May 15, 17:48 CET
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