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September 25 2009

Say Hello to Dollhouse! TV By the Numbers' article examining the second season premiere of Dollhouse tonight and why it may or may not be back for more after these next 13 episodes.

Doom and gloom? Must be Friday.
Well, to be fair the article isn't all that doomy or gloomy. He's basically saying he doesn't know whether it will get more episodes which seems a reasonable enough position

I like the theory that FOX renewed it to mess with TV by the numbers
The funny thing is, 3 days before DOLLHOUSE was officially renewed I off-the-record tipped off TVByTheNumbers it was going to get renewed, almost certainly. So then they published an article saying it was 99.9% cancelled, it whatever it was they wrote. They messed up; it was clear days before the upfronts that FOX was, in fact, keeping it.

The truth is, DH is very inexpensive for the network for various reasons now. I don't know if it's going to get renewed. I'm not even going to attempt to predict it this time around. Just enjoy the show.
OK, but he knew your information was reliable how gossi ?

He's basically saying he doesn't know whether it will get more episodes which seems a reasonable enough position

He's also saying his usual methods for deciding don't seem to apply to 'Dollhouse' which is also reasonable (since for whatever reason, they don't). Pretty fair and balanced article all in all.

And though last season there sometimes seemed a wilful determination on the part of TVbtN to see the negative side of the 'Dollhouse' numbers, those still were the 'Dollhouse' numbers. Which is why I don't see much need for him to eat crow - at the time assuming/predicting cancellation was a perfectly reasonable position to take and knowing he was wrong in hindsight doesn't make his reasoning at the time flawed (even Joss seemed to think they were for the high-jump up until quite near renewal).
The funny thing is, 3 days before DOLLHOUSE was officially renewed I off-the-record tipped off TVByTheNumbers it was going to get renewed, almost certainly. So then they published an article saying it was 99.9% cancelled, it whatever it was they wrote. They messed up; it was clear days before the upfronts that FOX was, in fact, keeping it.

They published the renewal-news (like virtually everyone else) 3 days before the upfronts, on Friday May 15th, the day it was unofficially confirmed. I don't know how much earlier you knew it, gossi, (and why you would tip TVBTN off, and not us ... ;) but as far as I can tell, they were pretty much participating in the same timeline we all did: "Pretty unlikely going on virtually impossible" up until May 14th; "Looking good going on sure thing" on May 15h.
They really ought to have printed buttons that said "Watch Dollhouse" for comic con. I for one would have worn it.
Yeah, here's what TVByTheNumbers said:

Say Goodbye To Dollhouse (May 8th)
0-1% chance of renewal (May 12th)
Reports of talks, but still not hopeful for renewal (May 12th)
Email from reader linking to THR, TVBN still skeptical (May 15th) "And I’d still bet $10 that Dollhouse isn’t coming back (I wouldn’t bet $1,000, but I might still go $100 though!)."
More rumors of renewal, they still won't admit it (May 15th)
They finally admit they were wrong, after multiple sources have reported the renewal (May 15th)

[ edited by JMaloney on 2009-09-25 15:00 ]
You know if people wanted to chat about TV By The Numbers they could go to www.letstalktaboutvbythenumbersinsteadofdollhousecausewerenotajosssite.com , otherwise it would be awfully nice if we would talk about Dollhouse's survival chances.
Simon, your link is broken, you might want to verify the spelling. |-)~

One of the comments on the article says that Dollhouse's ratings fell after TSCC so even a good lead-in can't help it. Correct me if I'm wrong, weren't the TSCC ratings lower than Dollhouse while they were airing together? And someone remind me of how Prison Break's compared while airing together with Dollhouse. I think an appropriate lead-in can't hurt, which doesn't seem to be what they have now.

Today is a whole new ball game. Almost like starting over, almost. I'd like to think this season could surprise everyone with better-than-expected ratings. It'll never get crazy good ratings, but I think it has real potential to get satisfactory ratings. We shall see.
It seems to me that renewal this year hinges more on dvd sales of season 1 than it does on ratings, since the studio is footing so much of the bill. They are at least equally important. This also means us fans actually have far more power to affect their renewal decision! Get buying and spreading the word!
bobw10 - I wonder how many people thought it was cancelled when it was off the air for a week so that they could show two episodes of Prison Break instead (a show that already had been confirmed as being cancelled!)
I think the lead-ins and Fox's understated* PR campaign will hurt Dollhouse' ratings.

*this is me being polite
So, what would be a good number of viewers for tonight's episode... and what would be a bad number?


This question is for anyone who has a better idea about ratings than I do.
Dollhouse's future depends on whether or not it can make us laugh. If Joss can make us laugh, we will be having this discussion again for season 3. If there's a much higher ratio of doom and/or gloom to humor, the show is finished this season. IMO.

I really enjoyed the second half of the first season immensely and I think it's because it made me laugh more than the first half.
except the 2nd half of the first season was when the ratings started going down alot.
AnotherFireflyFan, I was just going to say the same thing, the ratings didn't dip until after that weird hiatus, I know tons of folks who thought it was cancelled til the eps showed up online.

Some people argued that the promo said *in two weeks* but most of the folks I know are spoiler phobes who didn't watch those, so, yea.

On one of my local radio stations, there was an ad for Brothers (DH's sitcom lead-in) and it said *followed by the series premiere of DH*, then it was on a couple hours later and it had changed to *season premiere of DH*

They need to know WTF they're talking about.
Is there anyway or anywhere for me to view 'Epitaph One' without having to buy the Season 1 dvds?
Madmolly- you can download E1 from iTunes. And maybe Amazon, I'm not sure.
So, what would be a good number of viewers for tonight's episode... and what would be a bad number?


My gut tells me that at a bare minimum tonight's episode needs to perform better than the broadcast season 1 finale did (which I believe got a demo 1.0 with 2.75m viewers in overnight ratings.) If it were to drop below that (which I consider very unlikely)... well, you can finish that thought yourself.
@Illyria - thanks. I needed to charge my iPod anyway so will download that ep this morning.

I am getting wiggly waiting for tonight.
With the PR being so (what was that word? understated?), I don't see how anyone who's not already a fan would even know it was coming back. Tonight.

But I wasn't expecting a 2nd season at all, so I'm just going to take gossi's advice and enjoy it.
I saw a promo last night during Bones and this morning on the radio. "This time she's changing the rules," "critics call it mindblowing," etc. Emphasis on keywords "Joss Whedon," "Eliza Dushku," and "season premiere."
I don't actually believe the premiere ratings are especially determinative. Reilly and Rice know the situation last season got them into, and they know they didn't give a massive spend on advertising. Reilly has claimed that holding onto last season's performance is enough (for now anyway), and I continue to believe, for reasons I've already expressed both here and at TVbtN, that season two has a real potential to best season one, and that Fox will order more.
I think the premiere will be well down from community expectations, and it will drop off a little after that. There will be much press picnicing about them.

The ratings will be due to the less-than-average PR spend on this season and the awful, awful, awful lead ins. But I also know Reilly and Rice (and many of the people who surround them) aren't stupid. I'm pretty sure everybody knew the adverts were going to be low-key in terms of airtime, and I also suspect the fact some of the adverts went out with the wrong information on also didn't go unnoticed.

There's no way they expect it to get 2.0 in the demo this time. Probably not even 1.0. I think it'll bench well down on the scale. And, you know, I just don't care at the moment. See how it's doing in two months time - that's when the network will be looking at it.

Most of all I want the show to rock my brain from the outset. Everything else right now is noise.

One of the things we, as fans, did very well last season I thought was not go after the network screaming "Don't cancel the show!". The Cancel word was rarely used by fans. And I really think that helped. People contacted the network, and a lot of people did things like ask for Epitaph One to air, but there wasn't outright crazy negativity around things, which - in my opinion - helps when a network looks at a show. People made it clear they wanted more.

Reilly and Rice turned around and said, ultimately, there's a core audience to the show, it's on the low side, and they want more. So let's make it. And make it cheaper, so it's financially viable. I love them for it, and I love the fans for their involvement in it. There were no nuts, but -- or rather AND -- they (we) made a difference.

Edit: Also, apparently I have my sense of time very messed up near the top of the thread. My bad.

[ edited by gossi on 2009-09-25 17:44 ]
Most of all I want the show to rock my brain from the outset. Everything else right now is noise.

Hear, hear Gossi. Spent all of the last season picnicing over figures, that I sometimes forgot to really enjoy the show.
You won't be thinking about ratings tonight.
Dollhouse's future depends on whether or not it can make us laugh. If Joss can make us laugh, we will be having this discussion again for season 3. If there's a much higher ratio of doom and/or gloom to humor, the show is finished this season. IMO.

I heard exactly the same sentiments from my husband too, alexreager . Personally I'm not too bothered about the humour but I can appreciate there are some that need more than we had in the first season.

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