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October 19 2009

DVR figures for the second episode of Dollhouse season 2. It went up from 0.9 to 1.2 in the 18-49 demo, an increase of 33%.

Not a great increase. Hope it goes back to 1.5 next week.
Does this mean a bunch of the people who DVR-ed 201 decided to drop Dollhouse after that episode? That's definitely not a great sign if people are still losing interest.

But I still have hope yet for Dollhouse, since Fox promised to air all 13. There is time for the word to spread and ratings to rise!
Yeah, I don't get it. I'd be happier if we saw all the numbers (like viewership). Just makes me feel better.
The only thing I'm confused about is the surprise. If live viewership was down for this episode, why is anyone surprised that all viewership was down for this episode? Did someone actually suspect there'd be a mysteriously large jump for the Live+7? There are two things at issue with any ratings situation: Hard numbers (inc. the demo), and expectations. Given the Live+SD for this episode, I find it hard to believe anyone's surprised by the Live+7.

[ edited by The One True b!X on 2009-10-19 19:53 ]
I was expecting that the DVR audience for Dollhouse would be more consistent then the live audience. Losing DVR viewers means people decided to drop Dollhouse from their season passes, or opted not to watch it that week.

But let's see how ep 3 went. Maybe episode 2 is just the low point (ratings-wise) of the season.
Well, in terms of the total Live+SD figures the drop between episode one and two was 18.1% and the drop in the demo was 10%. For the first episode, DVR added 0.5 in the demo, but only 0.3 for the second. That's a drop of 40%. The figures are a bit rough, but that's a big difference. So surprise seems entirely justified. Especially if people thought that the DVR audience was more loyal than live viewers.
I think I want to see the DVR ratings for Belle Chose before making any statements. That was the episode that got more promotion. I think if anything, THAT will be the game-changer for the DVR numbers.
Losing DVR viewers means people decided to drop Dollhouse from their season passes, or opted not to watch it that week.

Do we know this happened? We don't have the actual hard numbers (millions of viewers) here, so I'm confused as to how anyone can say the actual number of DVR viewers dropped from episode 1 to episode 2.

It is entirely possible that my brain simply doesn't do the math to get from these numbers to those hard numbers, and that's why I don't see. If that's the case, someone please show me the math so I can grok it.
Bix, if went from 1.0 live first week to 1.5 with DVR, then second week 0.9 to 1.2 with DVR, that's a drop off in DVR viewers.
It's a drop in overall viewership. But what my brain isn't following (seriously, I need the bouncing ball version, not just statements) is how those numbers tell us the actual hard number of people watching via DVR. In other words, someone map out the math for me, so I can see the actual hard number of DVR viewers for episode one, and the actual hard number of DVR viewers for episode two.
The only number you have is the demo (I think). 0.9 to 1.2 as opposed to 1.0 to 1.5.
To show why I'm befuddled. If 10 people in the demo watched episode one Live+SD, and 5 people in the demo watched over the next 7 days, that's 15 viewers in the demo.

If only 5 people in the demo watched episode two Live+SD, but again 5 people in the demo watched over the next 7 days, that's a drop of overall viewers in the demo to 10, but the viewership in the demo after the day of broadcast was consistent from week to week.

So, in that, the Live+SD numbers in the demo and the Live+7 numbers in the demo are depressed from week one to week two, but the actual number of people in the demo watching over the later seven days is consistent from week to week, meaning no actual hard number drop in that viewership.

I need someone to show me how the numbers we got today for episode two show that the actual hard number of people in the demo watching after the day of broadcast dropped from week one to week two.

[ edited by The One True b!X on 2009-10-19 20:47 ]
Taking your example, episode one would have 10 for Live+SD and 15 for Live+7. The increase is 5. Episode two would have 5 for Live+SD and 10 for Live+7. The increase is again 5. The DVR figure is the increase and we can see that it's stayed the same.

However, for Dollhouse the increase (i.e. the DVR figure) has not stayed the same - it's decreased from 0.5 to 0.3. How many actual viewers that is, I don't know. I was probably assuming too much in saying that it's a 40% drop, even roughly, but it must be a significant drop.

[ edited by NotaViking on 2009-10-19 21:11 ]
Never mind.

[ edited by jkalderash on 2009-10-19 20:57 ]
And further complicating things is the fact that the total viewership for all programs is not the same week to week so a system based on giving shares of total viewership for the night is not accurate for comparative purposes and that's before you remember that Nielsen viewership is in itself a sampling. Good times -- ACCOUNTANTCY FIGHT!!!
I have Set up a FB ad (based on YouFoundBen's work) to run for 4 days leading up to the next episode of the show, but I'm a bit povo as a student currently on a trip to Europe, so it won't reach that many people, but any is better than none. I removed Amazon and iTunes to avoid issues there.

It might well be Fox's Job to advertise the show, but if we don't, then we can't say we did everything to save the show, and our efforts paid of last week, so we need to not only maintain, but build on this increase in viewers. (Plus we've seen the kind of advertising Fox do for this show, so here's our chance to do it right, and show people what DH is really about)

If others are feeling generous, It would be great if they would set up either the same ad, or a companion ad (http://www.new.facebook.com/ads). Set it up for as many days as you can afford between now and the 23rd. Set your daily limit. Choose Cost per impression or cost per click (I use per impression as it costs less and tends to get more clicks for the money) A bigger budget means you're more likely to run all day, and reach more people. (You can reach a decent number of people for as little as $10 a day, but the minimum is $1 i think)

Set your age range (I chose 16-50) Set your target location to United States. Choose keywords. Things like Joss Whedon, Buffy, Angel, Firefly, Dark Angel, Drama, Vampire, Twilight, whatever takes your fancy. It will estimate how many people fit your criteria (I hit 4.5 million comfortably with many keywords)

Upload the image of your choice. Link to www.hulu.com/dollhouse
Title: Dollhouse Fri 9/8 c (FOX)
Body: The search continues on 10/23. Catch up now for free on Hulu or Fox On Demand!

It only takes 5 minutes or so. Less than 24 hours to be reviewed. You can cap your limit by selecting daily spend and campaign dates.

You will need a Credit Card.

I'm willing to pay $10 and give up 5 minutes of my time to try and reach potential new viewers, are you?

http://i22.photobucket.com/albums/b3...useadsmall.jpg
http://i22.photobucket.com/albums/b3...mallVictor.jpg
http://i22.photobucket.com/albums/b3...mallsierra.jpg
http://i22.photobucket.com/albums/b3...mallmellie.jpg
The actual demo rating is an absolute measure rather than a fraction depending on the size of the total audience(a 1.0 demo rating is the same on a Thursday and a Friday) and thus isn't influenced by the total number of viewers for the night - that figure is the 'share' which isn't shown in this table.
Yeah, each "point" is a certain number of households right (around a million-ish) ? And the number of households per point is different between overnights and nationals. Or something.
The thing with the overnights and the nationals is that the overnights uses a separate sample including only viewers in the larger markets. As a rule the overnights are only of interest for giving the first indicator of how things have done.
Yep, each rating point represents a fixed number of demo viewers, so they are - as an absolute measure - comparable across nights and across weeks. The DVR gain going from 0.5 to 0.3 means Dollhouse lost DVR demo viewers, on top of the live demo viewers it lost.

For this season one 18-49 ratings point equals 1.32 million 18-49 viewers.

[ edited by wiesengrund on 2009-10-20 13:56 ]
Sorry, ignore me I was in a hurry and mis-stated... and posessed by hyenas :).

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