This site will work and look better in a browser that supports web standards, but it is accessible to any browser or Internet device.

Whedonesque - a community weblog about Joss Whedon
"Next up, who's gay!"
11945 members | you are not logged in | 22 October 2014




Tweet







April 03 2012

Will 'The Cabin in the Woods' be a hit? Box Office Mojo gives their thoughts on the upcoming April releases. They think that the Three Stooges remake is going to beat out Cabin.

Personally if that movie opens bigger then I will be very disappointed. It seems like everyone who has seen the trailer(for Three Stooges) has commented on how awful it looks.

Does it really matter? Even if it opens bigger, The Three Stooges --judging by the overwhelmingly negative buzz -- will only get nostalgics and a niche audience into theatres. After that, there's a good chance it will simply die out. Cabin has a largely positive buzz. If it opens to a modest audience, it has a really good chance to build an audience in following weeks if it really is as good as the reviewers seem to generally say it is.
I hope Cabin does build a audience. I haven't heard of any of the other releases in between Cabin and Avengers (I haven't even seen commercials for them or Stooges yet and I see Cabin commercials on tv all the time) and it would be a real treat to see Cabin still in the top 10 on May 4th.

[ edited by eddy on 2012-04-03 15:04 ]
I really hate how the press always calls it the "Whedon fanboy effect" Aren't half of Joss Whedon's fans women, if not more? It's also so dismissive, as if we don't live in the real world or something.
Can we please talk about what happens to the fandom when The Avengers comes out? When the film becomes a critical success, what will happen to the Whedon fandom? Will this bunch of new fans start watching Buffy and Firefly? I'm both worried and excited for the effect The Avengers will have.

[ edited by J.I.G. on 2012-04-03 15:05 ]
I honestly think Cabin will attract its fair share of new fans here. People are going to watch it and think "I want to see more stuff by the people who made that".
The Three Stooges --judging by the overwhelmingly negative buzz -- will only get nostalgics and a niche audience into theatres.

I think you are drastically overestimating the intelligence of people who visit cinemas. Many people rock up with no clue what they are going to see and will always pick a film they have heard of which won't tax their brains over a film they have never heard of which threatens to make them think about what is actually going on.
I think they might bring in some new fans, but generally... if people enjoy them they'll tell people about it, but the vast majority won't really care who wrote and directed the things. So it might bring some new readership to Whedonesque, but I don't think it'll be a sudden explosion of traffic.
I think Cabin will do top three the first week, hang around the lower half of the top ten in week 2 and disappear by week 3. Saying that I think it will become a cult hit.

When the film becomes a critical success, what will happen to the Whedon fandom? Will this bunch of new fans start watching Buffy and Firefly?


Buffy fans didn't watch Angel, Angel fans didn't watch Buffy. Buffy and Angel fans didn't watch Firefly and Firefly fans didn't watch Buffy and Angel. Bit of a generalisation, but it's what I've noticed online. This place be a bit of an exception. The Whedon fanbase (as opposed to being a fan of a Whedon show) is a lot smaller than people think.
I can vouch for the validity of Simon's claim. I didn't care for Buffy at first, but got crazy-addicted to Firefly. That led me to give Buffy another chance...then Angel...then it was all over for me ;-) See, we CAN learn! And then I found my way here. Hmmmm.

I can't imagine Cabin being a huge hit. I hope it does well, but it definitely seems more cult-following-ish to me. I think Shaun of the Dead type numbers aren't unrealistic, though I hope it does better.
I am possibly overly optimistic about Cabin, but I think it's gonna do pretty well. A horror movie released on Friday the 13th, the only other real competition that weekend being Three Stooges... I think Stooges probably win the weekend, but I'm betting on Cabin coming in a healthy second.

All right, now to bookmark this post so I can cry in two weeks when I'm wrong.
I think most of the people who will watch Avengers or Cabin in the Woods are not really going to be that interested about the writer or the director of those movies.

Maybe Cabin will have a bigger effects if it really will become a "cult hit" if the box office are not that great.
Actually rather than #2, Cabin might come in at 5th.

1.Titanic
2.The Hunger Games(might actually be #3)
3.American Reunion(might actually be #2)
4.The Three Stooges
5.The Cabin in the Woods
I don't know how the ads are in the USA, but here some sites say it should open the 13th of April, other the 20th.

I've never seen any trailer or ads and our local multiplex website doesn't even has it on the coming soon page.
I think Cabin will open pretty well, at least first amongst that weekend's new releases, and hang around the top ten until Avengers comes out. If you have a look at what is being released in the next three weeks there isn't much direct competition for Cabin's audience (i.e. the horror kids) and it could have a great run if people connect with it.
So a Whedon film attracts "fanboys", while the Stooges will inspire "nostalgia?"
Why not the other way around?

I don't understand the "marketing challenge" the writer talked about. The trailers seem to give people the right impression on what the film is, without giving everything away. (In contrast to something like "John Carter", which showed a lot but still left people puzzled.) And maybe it is just me, but I haven't seen anything for the "Three Stooges". If I didn't read it on certain movie sites, I wouldn't have known it was being released.
I do believe the marketing for Cabin has been much better than the marketing for Stooges. I have barely seen TV ads or billboards around LA, as where Cabin is everywhere. Hopefully that plus the buzz will help it prevail next weekend!
That's funny that you say Buffy fans didn't watch Angel, I figured the two were somewhat inseperable but I suppose that's just me being a Joss Whedon fanboy, heh. As far as Cabin goes, if its prime competition is the Three Stooges I don't think there's much competition at all. That said, the R rating doesn't help get the kiddies into the theater and horror is not usually a box office champion kind of genre anyway...but it was made on the cheap, I'm sure it'll make everyone involved some money and more importantly live on as a modern horror classic.
I think Simon has it about right. These days, the main reason people go to the movies is for simple escapism entertainment, which is why the Three Stooges will do so well. Joss' movie actually faces a bit of a problem, in my opinion. It is going to play with horror conventions, but mainly people who go to horror movies go for the horror- or for the torture, more than the horror. This movie will appeal to the person who understands the difference. Not to the average moviegoer.
I concur Dana5140. I overheard the woman in front of me ask the person she was with incredulously 'is this meant to be a comedy?'

People struggle when horror movies are a little more cerebral than torture porn, or when they are asked to try and understand a joke.
Saying that it could be the horror version of Inception and make an absolute fortune.

I do think a CSTS double bill of Serenity and The Cabin in the Woods would be go down a treat.
I am possibly overly optimistic about Cabin, but I think it's gonna do pretty well. A horror movie released on Friday the 13th, the only other real competition that weekend being Three Stooges... I think Stooges probably win the weekend, but I'm betting on Cabin coming in a healthy second.

All right, now to bookmark this post so I can cry in two weeks when I'm wrong.


Jobo, spoken like a true pessioptimist. Or is it optipessimist? ;) I can relate. *sigh*
If Cabin is a big hit, are we going to see the studios clamoring for a Cabin in the Woods 2? Would Joss be interested in a sequel? Maybe someday we will find out.

That's the optipessimist side of me typing. ;)

[ edited by electricspacegirl on 2012-04-03 18:30 ]
I'm thinking top three for both of the first two weekends, and top ten for 2 weeks after that.
I think it's second weekend will be stronger... I haven't heard of any of the movies coming out that weekend, and I think word of mouth should be pretty good. I can definitely see Stooges getting more than Cabin the first weekend, but Cabin being above Stooges the second weekend.
4/27 actually looks like a decent weekend to me. I'm kinda excited about Raven, Pirates! Should be great for the family crowd (and it looks cute, though it seems like forever since the first trailer I saw for it), and Five-Year Engagement has Jason Segel. So, I don't think Cabin could stay in the top 5 there.
I've been absolutely blown away with the marketing push for Cabin thusfar. I see posters on practically every block in NYC. It's nuts. I'm cautiously optimistic for it's chances
electricspacegirl: If Cabin is a big hit, are we going to see the studios clamoring for a Cabin in the Woods 2?

Now I'm having a waking nightmare, where some studio big-wig decides the sequel should exclude the creators (Joss and Drew), and be the type of brainless horror/torture-porn cliche that was being criticized in the first film. (And the flying megalodon should have laser beams.)
Depends who owns the rights to the concept, I would imagine Joss & Drew have some minor say.
gregkoko:I've been absolutely blown away with the marketing push for Cabin thusfar. I see posters on practically every block in NYC. It's nuts. I'm cautiously optimistic for it's chances

I TOTALLY agree. I see commercials for it all the time. If Serenity had half as much marketing as Cabin does, there is no doubt in my mind that movie would have made money. Perhaps enough to justify a sequel.
I think Cabin will do respectably the first week, wane a bit, but may gain again after Avengers comes out. Some people may want to see more by the same writer/director (especially if the mainstream reviews continue to be positive) if the love Avengers. At least that's what would happen with me had I never heard of Joss before.

The one threat to all this might be Dark Shadows, which I won't be rushing to the theaters to see, not because I don't want to see it, but because I'm having major surgery the day it comes out.

So both out of sheer desire to see Joss's movies, and by default, my movie money is going to Jossdom this summer.
Most people I know won't waste their money at the movies (because it has gotten really expensive) unless the movie has good reviews (or a box office star they love). Since 'The Three Stooges' hasn't allowed any reviewers to see the movie ahead of time I think it is pretty clear that the studio knows it stinks. So I don't really expect it to be any competition.

Cabin in the Woods has a really high rating at Rotten Tomatoes, so I think the real question is how many theaters will it open in? Will it go wide or into limited release (it is hard to get big box office numbers if you are in a limited number of theaters)?
Oh - and electricspacegirl is right about that whole "Whedon fanboy effect" thing. Being a nearly old woman, I find that phrase trivializes us, and makes the assumption that Joss's fans are all young males.

Has this person ever been to a Buffy-themed convention (especially when James Marsters shows up)? Wall-to-wall-to-wall women of all ages overwhelmingly outnumber the males there.
"I find that phrase trivializes us, and makes the assumption that Joss's fans are all young males"

Not only that, but it also seems rather demeaning to the film and all of us as fans (even if actually are fan "boys",) particularly in the context used in the article. The assumption is that the positive reviews it is getting is purely because of blind passion from the fan base and not because it is a good film.

I imagine The Three Stooges could well draw in a sizeable crowd in the States, but I can't see the same happening over here in the UK. I can't say it seems to have the same resonances over on this side of the Pond, but perhaps I'm wrong.

Outside of that, American Pie will probably have a goodish opening, but nothing spectacular, tailing off or staying steady, depending on how good it actually is. Titanic might pull in big numbers, but other 3D converted re-releases haven't done amazingly well, so I could see it being another good but not great box office.

So, looking at it that way, Cabin actually might do quite nicely. Whether it could hit no.1, I'm not so sure, but it is definitely catering to an audience that none of those other films will and might draw in people who are looking for something different (rare in a multiplex, but not unheard of.) If it really is as good as they say, I could certainly see it staying in the top 10 for three weeks, possibly four.

It does seem to be getting a big advertising push, so that is hopeful. I actually saw it being advertised on the side of a bus earlier today! Joss is bus-worthy!
Three Stooges looks dumb, but it is a brand. Movies with highly recognizable brands are usually the most successful, so I would say it has the edge over CitW. Look at the biggest hits of 2012 so far: The Lorax, 21 Jump Street, The Hunger Games are all based on recognizable brands.

I don't see CitW making buckets of money, but I don't think it needs to make buckets. If it delivers strong results when compared to its budget and works as counter-programming, then it'll be considered a success. It's clever horror movie with cult appeal -- it also has the potential of being a long tail moneymaker.
My problem with the "Whedon fanboy effect" is what Vandelay said. More concerned about the "Oh they only like it because they worship Whedon (What the hell is wrong with that?), something made by a guy who named a show "Buffy" couldn't possibly be good". The 'it implies that every fan is a teenage boy' I don't really buy into. I feel like it's just the shortened way of saying "Whedon fanboy&girl effect" and any age person can be a fanboy.
The movie is really, really, really fun. Its a movie that should be a hit; i think if people give it a chance, the word of mouth could be enormous. I may be overestimating things, and you really never know with the audience, but i wouldnt be surprised if Cabin in the Woods were a sleeper hit.

Then again... Audiences. Bigger mistery than we think.
Three Stooges looks sooo bad. Of course most of those others will perform better than Cabin because it is rated R... I still think it's going to pretty well.

I work in a theatre and I see a lot of people walking up to the coming soon poster and talking about how awesome the trailer looked. A lot of my friends who normally don't like good things are planning to see it too.

I think the ads during the Walking Dead finale helped. 9 million people watched it.
I don't think "American Reunion" will be too much competition for "Cabin," as "American Reunion" opens April 6. As for "Three Stooges" - I live in L.A. and there seem to be billboards for "Cabin" every other block. I think I've seen a total of two for "Three Stooges." I've also seen a lot of trailers for "Cabin" on TV - none for "Stooges" so far. Lionsgate knows how to promote its horror movies - in loud gears we trust :)
I think it could go either way.

I'm worried it will do what Drag Me To Hell did and receive great reviews and critical acclaim but basically be watched by no one.
I think in April people might be more inclined to see a comedy than what they perceive to be a horror. I think the humour elements of Cabin in the Woods could do with being played up a little more. It's *almost* a comedy horror.
insistondoubt, IMHO, "Drag Me to Hell" had an entire second act that could have been avoided if a character, who already had certain information, simply divulged the information earlier (and there isn't one thing stopping him from doing so). It also had the heroine intentionally doing something, evidently meant to be funny, that had me and the friend I went with feeling like the movie could drag itself to Hell at that point. I doubt we were the only ones. Whatever people will say/think about "Cabin," I very much doubt it will be complaints about whether the story acts justify one another. How the film opens is one thing; how it sustains is something else. I think "Cabin" will likely sustain much better word of mouth.
Shapenew, are you talking about the cat when you say it was meant to be funny?
Personally, I outgrew the Three Stooges when I was six, and these aren't even the real Stooges. But I have heard people who say they think the trailer looks great and funny and...

I'm not one of them. But I'm rarely in the popular groove. That Dark Shadows trailer makes me bleed inside, but I've seen positive feedback to it. I hope Cabin does well, but I'm at least glad it's finally being released. It's a very cool movie.
The fact that CitW has been referred to as "this generation's Scream" is a really good thing though. That comparison, I think, could get people to watch it. Scream has a lot of ardent fans who will at least want to test a movie that's compared to it positively. The Scream franchise still brings in a lot of money, so ... I think CitW has a good chance.
Heh, I was watching Scream for the billionth time the other night, and was thinking to myself that Cabin might be called the next Scream, in the sense of it being a very defining step in the horror genre. I'm glad I wasn't the only one.
Yeah. Actually I think it almost belittles CITW to call it "this generation's Scream". It sets out to achieve a similar thing, but does it in a really clever and natural way, as opposed to the Scream franchise's over-literal self-narration.

You can get different experiences out of CITW, and I think a lot of the people who see it will completely miss the satirical angle - but enjoy it all the same anyway. Whereas Scream is a lot more in-your-face about it.
Heh, I think there are still a lot of people that miss the satirical angles in Scream... Of course I'm also talking about just the first one. Thinking of it as the whole franchise is another thing completely. I don't think it gets very in your face about it until the sequels. The first one was a huge defining step for horror. And for me, especially since I haven't seen Cabin yet, is the only way I'm comparing the two... Both being steps of turning the genre around and being a big step for it. Or a big highlight maybe rather than a step.
Yeah. I'd be intrigued to see how Joss and or Drew could spin Cabin out into a franchise, if they chose to go down that route.

You need to log in to be able to post comments.
About membership.



joss speaks back home back home back home back home back home