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April 09 2012

Audience tracking of Cabin in the Woods is looking better. Tracking numbers are looking good; there is definite awareness and interest in the general audience for the movie.

"Awareness is at 57%, definite interest at 30%, and it's the first choice for 5% of younger audiences and 4% of older audiences."

But what does that actually mean in terms of potential box office performance?
i can't wait to see the forecasts, although they've been mostly overreaching of late. still, i hope the performance is good - they both deserve a win!
Considering last weeks performance, I'll be surprised if Hunger Games doesn't make Top 3.
Tracking and box office performance don't always tally, Simon.
Am I going to be denied my "Cabin has biffo boffo box office success" headline on Sunday? :(
Well, it only has to make X amount (a relatively small amount) to be a success for Lionsgate. It didn't cost much to shoot, and MGM had to throw it overboard to stay alive. Even if it comes in #2, I can imagine it being a success.
It depends on how much Lionsgate paid MGM for the film. Cabin wasn't that cheap to make. It will have to have a pretty good run to make profit in theaters.
Well, compared to handheld horror, yeah, it's expensive. But compared to the average wide release movie, it's below average cost.

My hope is the total domenstic and worldwide haul will be around $100m by the time release concludes in full. Yes, $100m. That's at the very high end of the scale and I believe it deserves it.
But still, $100m will only maybe make it profitable. Again it depends on how much Lionsgate paid for it and how much MGM wrote off it's budget.

And I should say that I'm only talking about it's cinema run. A lot of films don't see profitability until the home market and Cabin should do pretty well there too. Whedon fans like to buy DVD's.
Also need to consider marketing into the budget/amount needed to make a profit - and it has been marketed pretty heavily.
My understanding is that Lionsgate got it cheap. Cinema + DVD + licensed goods (novel and guidebook available in two weeks) + VOD. $100m at the box office would be a massive success.
I have no idea what these Audience tracking numbers mean. What are they percentages of? 57% of all Americans, the World? 30% of those who are aware? 5% of that? Or does it break down differently?

Gossi, $100m is very high for the box office run, not sure I have that faith. I agree it'll be an overall success though, and I think it would be fantastic if your guess is correct (or overshot)
Yeah, $100m is a get out the champagne target.
It isn't relevant how much this movie cost to make. It only matters how much Lionsgate paid for it which is never going to be public information. MGM most likely sold it cheap. Success on this movie will be measured (by the public and the media) by comparing it to other films in the genre. Real success will be measured on Lionsgate's books and none of us will ever see those or have any real clue. projects 16M opening and 39M total (domestic). It's only a projection, though, but at least it's a figure based on Twitter/Facebook/Traier viewing statistics. It's interesting that they initially projected 10M, then 12M, then 14M, so there are signs that the chatter on the Net is increasing.

As a side note, they're projecting a 155M opening for The Avengers.
The tracking is not 100% reliable, but it gives a decent idea of how much awareness and interest is out there for the movie. It is indeed for the North American, not international market.

bobw1o, the recent horror movie The Woman in Black did about $100M worldwide, so I think it can be done, making it a hit because of its low budget. It can be done!
Also The Woman In Black had (domestic) 20M weekend and is at 54M. Seems like Cabin should do at least as well if not better? Though I suppose Daniel Radcliffe drew in some Harry Potter fans... But still...

ETA: And for additional comparison, that website's long term predictions for Woman in Black were 17M and 42M.

Also for Avengers comparisons, they long range predicted Captain American at 50M and 150M - it got 65M and 176M

Ok, I'll stop obsessing over numbers predicting now... I promise...

[ edited by DreamRose311 on 2012-04-10 16:53 ]
That's great to hear. I was barely aware of The Woman in Black, and only after it released. Heard it was terrible, but it must have had pretty good appeal. Fingers crossed for Cabin :)
Ok, a little more obsessing... without the numbers though.

I'm just intrigued by some things:
The theater I will be seeing Cabin at is also the one playing Three Stooges, but Stooges won't start until saturday... Cabin gets an extra day woot!
It is also the one that has Hunger Games, American Reunion, and Titanic 3D. To make my point more clear, there are two theaters in very close proximity to each other. One is an AMC 24 the other, the one I'll be going to is a Regal 16. Every movie will be at one or the other, but not both. What this means - the smaller theater (though to be fair, AMC is going through some renovations and not all screens are open. Seems like it's been for a year though...) has all of the movies most likely being attended, which means more exposure for Cabin. This excites me. Anyone going to any of those movies this weekend can see that Cabin is there and go 'What is this Cabin...we have time for another movie, let's go!'

Obviously one theater in one town isn't going to make the difference, but if it's set up like that everywhere... more chance for income woo!

(What can I say, it's two more days... I can't contain myself.)

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