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July 29 2013

Will Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. beat NCIS in the ratings? Who will win the battle of the initials? TV Guide's Matt Roush gives his opinion.

I have to agree w/b!X: Agents of SHIELD may beat NCIS in the 'desirable demographics' (I hope so!), but NCIS has a huge loyal audience of older viewers who aren't looking for something new (particularly not comic book based). AoSHIELD will get a lot of younger viewers who will watch it online instead of Nielsen families (or even people with DVRs), so the ratings will never really reflect it's popularity. But I hope that it's ratings will be able to attract the top advertisers (ie cars! LOL).

It would be perfect if Agents of SHIELD ends up attracting family viewing!
Nope. Maybe only on demos. But hey, it'll probably get the best ratings a Whedon show ever got. We're so used to being the underdogs, it'll seem weird to get the numbers it'll probably get.
No but I don't think anyone involved with the show or at ABC expects it to. I hope it will be a solid hit for the network, steady ratings week after week is the best way rather than say a show like Revolution which started very strongly when it aired with The Voice but struggled when it didn't.
Definitely not. The DVR numbers will boost SHIELD but the overall numbers won't beat NCIS' Nielsen numbers.
ABC will get paid on 18-49 C3 (commercials watched within 3 days by 18-49 yr olds). These numbers are never public. The rest (by everyone) is noise or marketing.
Dunno - I've been a consistent watcher of NCIS for several seasons now but the plotlines introduced in the finale of last season are so completely screwed up that I was already ready to drop the show regardless of what it was airing opposite. I didn't realize that Cote de Pablo was leaving - that just makes me feel even more that the show is going downhill fast.

I have a DVR, so I could perfectly easily record both shows even though they are airing at the same time. But I'm probably not going to bother with NCIS any more.
No. I had my mother all psyched up to watch AoS in the Fall... right up until she found out it will be up against her beloved Mark Harmon. I think that will be the common reaction.
Without all kinds of Hollywood credentials, statistical evidence or any experience with ratings (short of a weekly Dollhouse gut punch), I think Agents of Shield could be the number one show the week it debuts. While NCIS may have a loyal fan base, I think it's safe to say that The Avengers has a pretty loyal fan base as well. We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

And I finally allowed myself to be spoiled and holy shit does the show look awesome!
No, it won't touch the weekly NCIS viewer who probably isn't even aware that AofS even exists. I'm also thinking of my parents.

I too hope for steady, decent viewership.

One caveat, my 13 year old son might just step away from the YouTube videos on Minecraft to watch this. If they can get that really young male audience, I think that the show will get renewed.

[ edited by hann23 on 2013-07-30 00:27 ]
Bix summed it up -- it will not be unseating NCIS. Which, by the way, is an entirely entertaining program, so it's not like a thing that one should seriously shake their fist in rage over. Being #2 in that timeslot could still be #2 in primetime for the week, so... no problem.

Look for season 2 if it will ever happen -- NCIS will be turning over its primary URST outlet with the sad departure of Cote de Pablo, while AoS will be hitting a second season (where three out of three Whedon series to get a second season have stepped up in game considerably).

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