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November 12 2014

Ratings for last night's Agents of SHIELD episode. The show got a 1.5/4 in the 18-49 demo. This may be adjusted up once the final ratings are in later on today.

It looks like nothing is going to move those ratings. Oh well.
In slightly good news EW considers it safe at the moment.
Isn't SHIELD still in the top half of ABC shows? I think it'll be fine.

(And y'all know I'm not exactly a fan, so I'm not sugar-coating for myself!)
There is absolutely no concern. AoS wins its timeslot every week once L3 and L7 are in. The overnight ratings are meaningless.
This has been your weekly Moment of Ratings Zen. :)
L3 is important, but L7 is absolutely meaningless.
I think these threads would be more fun if there were pie charts.
Manhattan Love Story and Selfie might already be cancelled, but you'd still have to see Cristela, Forever, Revenge, Last Man Standing, Resurrection, Nashville and (to a lesser extent) Castle all get canned before ABC would even think about getting rid of AoS. And that's not even taking into account all the midseason replacements that will ultimately fail. AoS is consistently in the middle of ABC's pack and will be just fine.
I think these threads would be more fun if there were pie.
How do we know what the L+3 ratings are like? I've never seen them published. I've occasionally seen L+7 ratings that show AoS gaining 81%.

But you can probably assume that falling overnight ratings also indicate falling L+3 ratings. This week's will probably go up to a 1.6 in the finals, but that still matches a series low, and the ratings are certainly not getting any higher.

The show keeps getting good reviews this season, but the people that aren't watching aren't paying attention.
On a related note the lead-out show "Forever", recently got a back 9 order with an L+SD as low as a 1.2, The press release said the
reason was high dvr numbers which makes me think that people who record AoS are also recording Forever. If so that is a net positive.
@AndrewCrossett The L+3 numbers do not seem to be published any more as of about 6 weeks ago. No idea why. In any case the C3
number which is the one that matters is not published. The difference between the two is that L+3 includes people who do not
watch the commercials.
L3 and L7 only come out in occasional press releases. I still find it fascinating that some insist on trying to use these numbers to predict anything when they don't mean anything anymore.

Comedies don't sell well internationally and don't really have solid other revenue sources so poor performers (that didn't really see bumps in L3 and L7) don't have anything to fall back on. AoS was sold all over the world for local broadcast which most likely (without seeing the budget) when added to Netflix and other like services more than pays for the show. Overnight ratings are meaningless in light of this. It could get negative viewers and still be profitable as far as we know.

Of course, that international and streaming revenue could easily disappear if people in non-US markets do not watch their local broadcasts and watch illegally instead. I see piracy outside the US as the biggest threat to the longevity of the show. If the non-US markets remain viable then I'm sure we will get 5-7 seasons.

[ edited by IrrationaliTV on 2014-11-12 22:36 ]
This is a fun moment every week. We all panic and IrrationaliTV brings order to chaos.
In some international markets AoS is a big hit. Canada, for instance. On October 28 AoS pulled in 2,408,000 viewers, good for 6th that week. It has a better lead-in, though. On CTV, its lead-in is The Flash, which was the 3rd rated show that week. We apparently enjoy comics-related TV in Canada.

Here's a link.
The show is safe, the L3s are good plus the numbers may go up once season 1 hits Netflix next week.

Last night it was up against Supernatural's 200th which would pull directly from its audience. I almost even tuned into Supernatural live until my daughter blew a gasket.
Ooooo. Good point on the piracy IrrationaliTV. I wonder what effect, if any, the split season approach will have on that. This
is pure speculation on my part but if I had to guess I would think that two smaller 10 & 12 piece blocks would be easier to
schedule than one 22 episode season. Based on what little I hear on the subject there is more piracy when the key foreign
markets are more than a week or so behind the US. There certainly is a lot of a carping. Perhaps the smaller blocks will
cut down on the downloading. And of course the decision to put all of its shows on a weeks delay by ABC for streaming may
be the single dumbest decision in recent memory by a network.
I think these threads would be more fun if there were pie charts.


I think these threads would be more fun if there were pie.

Yoink |

Mmmmmm pie!


This is why I love it here!
BTW the 1.5 is a final number.
4th highest rated show for the whole night in all of broadcast and cable for men 18-49.
>> I think these threads would be more fun if there were pie charts.

Don't be stupid. We gotta analyze healthy. We can't have pie charts.
Can we get cake charts?
IrrationaliTV, what 3 shows beat it, if you don't mind my asking?
Cake charts are OK, especially if they are cheesecake charts.
The show will run through this season for sure. And you know, it starts to wrap up as Avengers: Age of Ultron is released, which gives fun tie in potential.

It is a bit different to the usual situation as the show is expensive, although on balance it also does better internationally than basically everything on ABC. Provided it doesn't go off a cliff I imagine the Agents being around for more seasons.

Also: I'd like cheesecake.
@Gossi 1) If foreign sales are already covering costs + a profit before getting a dime from ABC how does cost of production matter ?
2) While I don't think this show is cheap I don't see anything screaming expensive. Could you elaborate ?
ABC could try to shift production costs to Marvel. And there's a lot of VFX in the show, I think a ton of it goes unnoticed (the best kind of visual effects, in my humble opinion).
Would Marvel be up for that? Pretty much every big time player at Marvel isn't involved with Agents of SHIELD (whereas they are involved with Agent Carter).
Costs of shows grow every year at set/predictable/higher than what seems necessary growth rates. Revenue sources tend to decline. That's why shows usually don't go on forever, JDL. Being ahead of the curve now is good. It won't hold forever.

Also, we don't know the actual costs and revenues associated with AoS. I don't know that the show is profitable. I'm spitballing here. Let's be careful not to spin this into yet another fan made up untruth that gets out there. I'm a fan. I don't work for Disney/Marvel/ABC.

QingTing, Sons of Anarchy, The Voice and NCIS. AoS will easily beat all but SOA with L3 and L7.

[ edited by IrrationaliTV on 2014-11-13 18:42 ]
SOA is ending. Only three more episodes, and the series is done.

For a picnic, I'd prefer pie.
IrrationaliTV, that's excellent. Now. Do we suspect that there may be some kind of connection between ratings and pie?
Now. Do we suspect that there may be some kind of connection between ratings and pie?
punkinpuss |

Is everyone here really stoned? Pie is healthier than cake, as it has fruit ;)
I was cheered up when I saw that the show didn't feature on this list.
That list includes L+7 numbers... last week AoS gained 81% and 1.3 ratings points over the week. And its 7-day numbers are apparently increasing even while its overnight ratings stay flat.
If the new heads of FOX cancel Bob's Burgers I'm going to loose it. Bill Hader's Bryce the Firefighter-style.
Since Bob's just replaced the new show, Mulaney (I think they flipped timeslots), I'm guessing Bob's ratings will now go up and it is pretty safe.

And with Sunday's overnights in, Bob's numbers jumped up in the new slot, was a huge improvement over Mulaney and it helped Fox's whole night. Even safer now. :)

[ edited by IrrationaliTV on 2014-11-17 20:52 ]
To @punkinpuss
This ... is gonna be worth it.

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