Serenity's Path Brighter As Paramount Moves Aeon Flux To December.
Paramount had penciled the film in for a late September release, which would have pitted it against Serenity. (With Charlize Theron starring as well as it being a sci-fi film, it would have taken a chunk of the audience.)
This isn't the most groundbreaking news in the world, but it is good news. With Aeon Flux gone, the only competition Serenity has is Into the Blue (with Jessica Alba). Of course, Alba has never successfully opened a movie on her own and I doubt that will change anytime soon. The lack of competition bodes well.
August 11 2005
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Numfar PTB | August 11, 11:22 CET
nakedandarticulate | August 11, 11:30 CET
Of course, this will be positioned as sort of a semi-arthouse film and is almost certain to get a pretty hard R, so it's not in direct competition for those big youth dollars, but among older filmgoers who might be looking for something different and intelligent in a genre way, it might seem like a safer bet than what they only know as the latest space opera.
[ edited by bobster on 2005-08-11 18:36 ]
bobster | August 11, 11:34 CET
eddy | August 11, 11:42 CET
UIP are handling the international distribution, but domestically Serenity and Aoen belong to different studios.
Nowadays most films (especially sci-fi ones) make most of their money during the opening weekend. I doubt Serenity will be any different. I imagine the opening weekend will basically give us an idea of how the film will do over its run. Hopefully it'll be one of those slow earners that hang in there even with big competition.
It's an R. I think Newline are releasing it through one of their specialty divisions, which would indeed make it an (sort of) indie film.
ObserveandApply | August 11, 11:46 CET
The Cronenberg film is A History of Violence (not The End of Violence), and it's based on the graphic novel by John Wagner and Vince Locke, adapted by screenwriter Josh Olson. It is indeed rated R, and premiered at the Cannes Film Festival in May.
That said, it is nowhere near as big a threat to Serenity as Aeon Flux was, as Flux is pretty much targeting the exact same audience as Serenity (while Violence is most certainly not). In fact, we should probably all be sending flowers to Paramount to thank them for handing Serenity an extra several million on opening weekend. (Okay, not literally send flowers, but it's the thought that counts, right?)
Robogeek | August 11, 11:51 CET
injust | August 11, 11:52 CET
WhoIsOmega? | August 11, 11:54 CET
Ooh, The Corpse Bride, Serenity, then Wallace and Gromit? What a tremendous late September-early October trifecta!
SoddingNancyTribe | August 11, 11:54 CET
[ edited by Matt_Fabb on 2005-08-11 18:57 ]
Matt_Fabb | August 11, 11:57 CET
Actually, VJP666...
It is exceedingly rare for any film to make most (meaning more than half) of its theatrical release box office gross on opening weekend - though obviously most major releases make more money on opening weekend than any succeeding one. (A good place to track box office numbers online is BoxOfficeMojo.com, btw.)
But yes, A History of Violence is most certainly going to be released on significantly fewer screens than Serenity, which further minimizes its threat (though I do concede it - and every other film in the market at the time - does pose some threat/competition).
Robogeek | August 11, 11:58 CET
Especially if Columbia markets Into The Blue as "Jessica Alba in a bikini", which they most certainly will. But I figure that Serenity still has a decent chance at coming out on top.
[ edited by VJP666 on 2005-08-11 19:09 ]
ObserveandApply | August 11, 12:06 CET
Robogeek | August 11, 12:16 CET
k8cre8 | August 11, 12:17 CET
'Course, it was only the one scene. Pity.
SoddingNancyTribe | August 11, 12:20 CET
In any case, if it's a limited release and it's not playing in many cities or playing in very few theaters, that obviously limits the "threat." (Though it's also a sad commentary on contemporary entertainment.)
"Corpse Bride" could be another story entirely, however, if it's the same weekend.
Re: "Mirrormask" -- haven't heard anything about the release, but I saw it at Sundance and I dnn't see a lot of commercial possibility in it, unfortunately. I suspect they'll only give a very limited arthouse release in a few cities. It's a honorable effort, but I felt (and those I spoke with agreed) that it doesn't really come together at all.
[ edited by bobster on 2005-08-11 21:09 ]
bobster | August 11, 12:32 CET
genia | August 11, 12:37 CET
It did well enough to earn a sequel (unfortunately). Regardless, ITB is the first time Alba is selling a movie. FF was sold as a comic book since none of the actors are A list, and Sin City was sold as an ensemble as opposed to just Alba.
The Corpse Bride is opening the week before Serenity. It'll only do moderately well if its anything like The Nightmare Before Christmas.
ObserveandApply | August 11, 12:48 CET
Djungelurban | August 11, 12:57 CET
eddy | August 11, 12:58 CET
killinj | August 11, 13:04 CET
Kris | August 11, 13:15 CET
Simon | August 11, 14:17 CET
Back on topic – nice to see that Serenity will have less competition. Also, Genia, I must be seeing different movies than you, because I've been to probably 8 or 10 films this summer and haven't seen a single preview for Into the Blue. I've seen Serenity previews twice. Personally, I'm very much loooking forward to "A History of Violence," which got mostly raves from Cannes, but I agree that it won't be much competition for Serenity.
acp | August 11, 14:26 CET
gossi | August 11, 14:32 CET
In an ideal world, "Serenity" would have some really tough competition, and we'd see it soar up to the top easily, and beat every each one of them.It would show how good movies, could still linger.
In an ideal world, we wouldn't be talking about avoiding as much competition as possible, instead we'd be discussing in how many ways "Serenity" will beat the rest of the competition.
Numfar PTB | August 11, 14:39 CET
zeitgeist | August 11, 14:42 CET
***POTENTIAL "FLIGHTPLAN" SPOILER IN THIS POST***
You have been warned ;)
Yeah, Serenity is pretty lonely on the 30th by now =) The Early Report says on estimated number of screens (the rest are limited):
- Serenity: 2500+
- Into the Blue: 2250+
- The Greatest Game Ever Played: 1500+
The week before (September 23), the major players are:
- Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride: 2750+
- Flightplan: 2500+
- Roll Bounce: 1500+
- The Prize Winner of Defiance, Ohio: 1500+
While "Corpse Bride" looks to be good, I doubt it'll be wildly popular - except it's really the only thing for parents to take their kids to around that time - but they're not the audience for Serenity anyway. "Flightplan" looks like yet-another-thriller-soup that people will flee from before the opening weekend is over - at least the trailer is trying to sell a "supernatural/psychological mystery" plot that's revealed early on in the film as very mundane and trite, if the old draft for it hasn't changed a lot (doubt it has, since it's really a high concept film).
The week after (October 7) is as lacklustre as the week before, making sure that October really lives up to its reputation as dumping ground =) Only worthwhile material I can think of is Wallace and Gromit, but rather different audience. Only if "The Fog" gets lucky, will there be a real threat.
Now "Serenity" just needs more marketing =P
Kaneda | August 11, 14:43 CET
Marketing is coming, and is going to have our babies.
gossi | August 11, 15:07 CET
I never bothered to see The Ring 2, but I have RE2 on DVD. It's no wonder that it's numbers tailed off, because it was terrible. I don't think that's a concern with Serenity.
"In an ideal world, we wouldn't be talking about avoiding as much competition as possible, instead we'd be discussing in how many ways "Serenity" will beat the rest of the competition."
This isn't sports.
The less competition, the more people will "settle" for Serenity. The more people that see it, the more people will go nuts for it and propell it to blockbuster status (at least, if we're still talking ideal worlds).
rkayn | August 11, 15:18 CET
I hope you're right, because outside of what I look for(and sometimes not even then!), I can't find any Serenity promotion going on. I know some folks have seen trailers in front of some movies and some specials on tv, but it certainly wasn't in front of the Batman I saw, nor on tv where I've seen.
What I have seen is a few promotional ads on the net, which always make me smile, but I'd love to see a full trailer 3 times during House or something! *coughalaStealthcough*
Rogue Slayer | August 11, 15:24 CET
nakedandarticulate | August 11, 15:37 CET
Two reasons to that: I live in france, and it is released here the 19th of october.
:(
Le Comité | August 11, 15:42 CET
Numfar PTB | August 11, 15:48 CET
zeitgeist | August 11, 15:57 CET
Two reasons to that: I live in france, and it is released here the 19th of october.
That's not true, as quite a few movies rely on the international market in order to turn a profit. Example, the new Batman movie costs around $200 to make and promote. Yet it's only just about to pass the $200 million mark in North American box office (a good part which goes to the movie threates). Only it's considered a success and Warner Brothers are talking about a sequel because it's made $160 million in the international markets. Now the DVD sales will be pure profit for Warner Brothers instead of looking to DVD sales for the movie to beging turning a profit. So the international market can effect if there will be a sequel to Serenity or not, if the movie doesn't make enough in North America.
Matt_Fabb | August 11, 16:13 CET
Serenity's first trailer - which marked the first wave of initial advertising, went out with a least 3 of the largest films of this season. Because theatres often have to cut the trailers themselves, they didn't always have to attach Serenity. See also: Batman Begins. The exception is when it gets hard locked with Universal releases (see also: all early Land of the Dead screenings).
2nd wave WILL kick off in September. TV spots will hit two weeks before release. This is all very very standard stuff. Bare in mind the film budget, and the potential marketing budget. This ain't War of the Worlds - it's a percentage of that budget.
I went to the first major press screening of Serenity last night. They loved it. They lapped it up. As they left, several of them went and got Firefly boxsets on the way home.
Patience is needed for the 2nd wave to begin, ultimately. And I'm sure people can wait. Honestly, Universal has absolutely no intentions (at all) of trying to bury Serenity. They actually like it. This is the best chance of something Whedon produced I've ever seen, and by gosh - I'm hyper to see everything unfold over the next few months. Right now, there hasn't been a better time to be a Whedon fan.
[ edited by gossi on 2005-08-11 23:20 ]
gossi | August 11, 16:17 CET
WhoIsOmega? | August 11, 18:29 CET
I'm very glad the press screening went so well.
In Australia, we the fans have petitioned UIP to utilise us in thier advertising... click here
They've taken us up on the offer... Here
So, it's gonna be fun and interesting to watch this pan out. I personally just want more Big Damn Sequels.
(Oh and for Joss to succeed)
nixygirl | August 11, 18:29 CET