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August 12 2005

Entertainment Weekly has a Serenity preview online. The full magazine print article is unfortunately not online. Quick quotes from nakedandarticulate: "I was a Whedon stalker," laughs Mary Parent, Universal's now-out going vice chairman of production, who dug Whedon's vision and no-surrender passion. She also recognized a potentially marketable Cinderella story. "I thought this band of underdogs could make for a cool movie." ... Universal execs say the film would need to gross north of 80 mil to garner sequel consideration --not an impossible dream, given that Whedon also boasts a strong following abroad.

Thanks for the props gossi :)
$80m at the box office? That probably doesn't include DVD sales and the like, then? Ah well, I'm sure it'll make $80m no problems.

:edit: ah, replied to quickly. Gross $80m? So that would in fact include DVD sales, I guess. Then I see no problems, whatsoever. Yay.

[ edited by GVH on 2005-08-12 17:57 ]
Edited to fix spelling.
Ta Caroline. Could you remove my "Edit by" line for me, also?
I read the article, and while it generally is meant to build up the movie, there are some statements in it that are kind of underwhelming. Unfortunately, I can't list them right now, because my daughter ran off with the magazine, but after describing Firefly as a sci-fi space western with cursing in Chinese, it said something to the effect of "No wonder it got cancelled."
If you have to recast me with Winona Ryder or some kind of "star", tell me.

Bless her heart, Summer is so sweet. I wish I could've seen Joss' face when she asked that question.
Someone should post the whole article... anyhoo, they have a countdown on there and speaking of a countdown someone made a Serenity countdown and it is posted @ http://blog.myspace.com/serenitybrowncoats

$80 mil for gross... im guessing Serenity will reach that domestically in 3-4 weeks

[ edited by Mr Universe on 2005-08-12 18:29 ]
Mr Universe - that's one hell of a guess. It'd need to make $27m odd million solid for the first 3 weeks to do that. Sci-fi traditionally has an average of a 50% or so drop off after the first week.
True gossi, but people will leave this film and probably tell others if nothing else that it sure holds your attention more than other recent flicks. I just totally foresee this movie dropping yet remaining earning not loads but steadier runs than others. Even if it means the studio not making as much after a couple/few weeks. Guess if it finally drops to the dollar movie (and it would be interesting to know how earnings are distributed from those given that kind of price) it will be one of those that stays there forever. The dollar movie holding onto it for a long time doesn't mean it's a bad flick, though lots of them are. Sometimes movies there are considered pretty cool.
I think one reason for the drop off is that most sci-fi movies aren't well done. They're flashy, with shallow characters, and quickly forgettable. Serenity will push back at the genre, in the same way Star Wars, The Matrix, and Lord of the Rings did. I think it's going to take reviewers by surprise, and good reviews and word of mouth will keep it in the top for a few weeks. It's a small film, but I think it will do what it needs to do to get its sequel. I agree with April that the business for this film will be steady, if not blockbuster. It will be interesting to see what a sequel will do, but one step at a time. :)
80 million in total! Yeah, we're gonna have a sequel alright. This is gonna rule! :)
Hmmm, should we start a poll? This is for fun, mind you. I predict 36M in the opening week-end followed by 22M in the second. Once the overseas tallies are counted, I'm thinking 92M. Overall, with DVD sales, 101M.

For once, I pray I'm being overly conservative here.
I say we all go and see the movie again and again until it reaches $80 million or more. Oh Yeah! We are most definately having a sequel.
I don't know, Madhatter.... That sounds pretty optimistic to me for an opening week figure. I think there's a good chance it'll gross over $80M for total box office, DVDs, international, etc. But the figures you're putting out there are major blockbuster figures. And in the fall, especially, very few movies get a $36M opening weekend.
I think it will do especially well in DVD sales because by that time, the word of mouth will be very strong for those who missed it at the movies. I also feel like a lot of people who are unfamiliar with the series/non sc-fi fans won't want to take the risk of taking a trip to the movies for it, and just might wait for dvd.
Well, it'll have at least $50 of mine and hubby's money as we plan on seeing it the Friday it opens, the next day, and the next weekend(cuz Joss says the second weekend is important too!)
On top of whatever the dvd will cost, because we'll obviously buy that too!

I have no idea how many Firefly fans are out there(millions of some sort), but if every one sees it 2x in the opening weekend, that would make a kick-ass opening weekend for a grassroots movie like this!
I'll be contributing to that oh-so-important second-weekend figure, as opening weekend is my brother's wedding :-)
If someone isn't will to risk a trip to the movies, I doubt they'll buy the dvd - more expensive than going to the theatre. They may rent it, but that doesn't help with sales unless they like it so much they buy their own copy. However, I don't doubt dvd sales will be good given how well the original series did on dvd.
I think we will break 116 mill - I'm like Nostradamus, but way more German and Irish... and I'm right more often.

[ edited by zeitgeist on 2005-08-12 21:04 ]
I think Serenity will be a huge hit. It will draw in the scifi fans during the opening weekend but word-of-mouth will spread it's appeal. Plus, I think the reviews will be really good and some folks who aren't normally interested in scifi will check it out.
I can see our BDM doing well overseas as well. No one except us internet geeks will know, or care, it was based on a cancelled show, people will just see a cool trailer and read the reviews and think "I'll go see that"
Serenity will push back at the genre, in the same way Star Wars, The Matrix, and Lord of the Rings did.


Out of those, I think that only the first two Star Wars and Lord of the Rings really pushed good storytelling in genre movies. Matrix redefined flash and style, but the dialog and underlying themes were so stale and trite that I was screaming at the movie long before it ended. Never bothered with the sequels. As was said in another thread, "All hat and no cattle."

I think the more accurate comparisons for Serenity may be with single movies like Bladerunner or 2001, or maybe Minority Report. The sad thing is that these movies really do raise the standards, but there are so few writers or directors who can live up to them. Thankfully Joss is one who can.
I know, acp, but I'm a glass half-full type of person. I stand by my statement. If I'm off by 3M, everyone can throw their fruits and various meats. Wouldn't be the first time. But, I'm thinking I'm right.
Here is the list of films coming out in the UK on the Serenity weekend.

'Night Watch' looks like the challenge for the first weekend, as it may split the SF audience. 'Wallace and Grommit' will probably be the big film on the second weekend.

One certain winner looks like Chiwetel Ejiofor who is in both 'Serenity' and 'Kinky Boots'.
80 Million? Globaly?

I think I'd be more worried if it's was domestically. I won't say it'll be a piece of cake, but we'll need only to double their investiment. Hopefully, The US market will reach this number, even before it opens here in Brazil.

Do I remember right, that Chris Buchanan, said that the early pre-screenings tickets, will also be added to this opening cash figure? How much will that amount?
Rogue Slayer, I'm already putting aside money each pay day for my movie tickets. I figure 5 times the first weekend, and five more times spaced out over the next two weeks, at least. Of course, I've already contributed twice already and, if we can keep it in theatres for six weeks, I'll be taking my nephew - a recent Firefly convert - in November. Plus the DVD, of course. I definitely plan to do my part :)
..I don't have anything much to add. I just read the article and was very interested to note that Mary Parent called herself a "Whedon stalker" considering she is also Marc Blucas' ex-girlfriend. That's awesome!

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