Whedonesque : Comments on 8112 : Serenity's Weekend Projections This Weekend at Comingsoon.

15 million ain't pretty? I'm sorry, but I would be incredibly happy with that much.

Um, I think that's a fairly promising projection. Anything $15 million or more is really good for the time of year, the type of film (no stars, no easily-digestible premise, etc.) and the amount of mainstream promotion. I've actually had a lot of misgivings recently because the TV spots seem to have dried up and I've asked random people about the movie, and most have no idea what I'm talking about. And these are young people who go to the movies fairly often in the theater, and are media-savvy. That is, how do you say, NOT GOOD. Only one person I've ever met who knows of the movie independently of me introducing them to the concept. That is not a triumph of marketing.

I'm so scared the movie's going to open to less than $10 million, and sink away without a trace. I'm doing all I can to build up box office -- rounding up 10 people to go opening weekend, promising to pay for my cousins to go, etc., but it's kind of an uphill battle because nobody has heard of this movie. It's enough to make me tear my hair out! If the movie clears $15m the first weekend and ends up with a total b.o. of $40-50m domestically, I will be ecstatic. Factor in intl. gross plus DVD sales and TV rights, Univ will have itself a modest gold mine.

dottikin | September 27, 18:25 CET

Yeah 40-50 million domestic would be a victory for me. We can make the rest overseas.

eddy | September 27, 18:28 CET

Interesting, because I also predicted about a $16 million opening weekend way back in July.

With that being said, I'm certainly rooting for a better first weekend, and even if it does indeed take in less than $20 mil over those first three days, "Serenity"'s a damn fine film which should result in a healthy box-office run. Coming Soon's total box office prediction of "just under $40 million" seems low to me. I'm guessing more in the $60 to $70-million range and will hope for even bigger tallies.

In the meantime, I scored a pass to the Pittsburgh critics' screening, so I get to check it out the finished film tonight!

rbt | September 27, 18:29 CET

Um... SpikeBad, what exactly would you consider pretty? Flowers? Rainbows? Mendelssohn? (I kid, I kid...)

A $15M+ opening (a full third of the film's budget) would be a very solid opening - particularly if that puts the film at #1 (which would be a major psychological victory), and especially considering this is a genre movie with no stars opening on a fairly modest 2,300 screens. I think everyone involved would (and should) be happy with anything over $15M come Monday, and I cringe at you characterizing it as "ain't pretty".

Now, granted, we would all love to see it open at over $20M - which would qualify it as a genuine hit right out of the gate - but let's not get our hopes up.

Robogeek | September 27, 18:36 CET

Wow, if Serenity earned $15 million opening weekend and was No. 1 at the box office, I'd be thrilled. My guess has been that Into the Blue will beat it. I share some of the same concerns dottikin has, in that absolutely no one I know has heard of it or is planning to go see it without my urging. But I'm still hoping for a box office of at least $12+ million, which would give it a solid start (especially for this time of year) and make people take it seriously.

acp | September 27, 18:36 CET

At least we'd get more than Into the Blue, and Serenity will be on less theathers.

Numfar PTB | September 27, 18:39 CET

This article talks about word of mouth not being able to reach outside the Browncoats, but do they think we all live in some community shut off from the public at large? That we never talk to any outsiders, let alone have actual friends in the outside world?

Plus, I believe there are many people who go out for a night, arrive at the multiplex, look at what's playing and decide there and then what to see. If one of them remembers a positive review and picks Serenity then that what they'll see.

It really could do anything. From crash and burn, the "Big Fat Greek Wedding-six-months-in-the-top-five" to spectacular success. We'll find out soon enough.

zz9 | September 27, 18:41 CET

Adding my scratchy tenor to the chorus: $15-17 million and number 1 at the BO is distinctly un-"not pretty."

MattM | September 27, 18:42 CET

I share the same concerns. I don't know anyone who has heard of the film outside of me telling them about it. I'm trying to wrangle up a group here at my office to go - hopefully 5-10 people - opening weekend. $15 Million and the #1 spot sounds good to me.

killinj | September 27, 18:43 CET

I've removed "the aint pretty part". I'm quite happy with the number one slot but I'm wanting a 20 million opener.

Simon | September 27, 18:48 CET

Good to see they are predicting that Serenity will get more than Into The Blue. All I want for this first weekend is for Serenity to take the Number 1 spot. With the Number 1 spot under its belt and a lot of positive buzz, Serenity should have no trouble reaching a respectable box office total.

For the record:

Pulp Fiction $9,300,000 (opening weekend) $107,930,000 (Total USA)
Sixth Sense $26,681,262 (opening weekend) $293,501,675 (Total USA)
Titanic $28,638,131 (opening weekend) $600,779,824 (Total USA)

Serenity $15,000,000 (opening weekend) $150,000,000 (Total USA)?

[ edited by Zoic_Fan on 2005-09-27 17:01 ]

Zoic_Fan | September 27, 18:59 CET

For the record, it is extraordinarily rare for a wide-release film to make more its second (or third or fourth) week out than in its opening weekend. It's possible, but by no means likely.

Generally, a film's domestic take will end up being about 3 times its opening weekend totals.

MattM | September 27, 19:05 CET

It will be a huge coup if Serenity is the number 1 movie of the weekend...Drudge always links to an article about the movie grosses, and millions of people go to his site daily. A movie based on a TV show that didn't last a season topping the box office would be very big news indeed.

Chris inVirginia | September 27, 19:17 CET

"Corpse Bride" made about $19 million last weekend, so $15 million seems like a reasonable estimate for "Serenity". Is Coming Soon generally on-target in their estimates?

BTW, Box Office Mojo users are optimistically predicting about $18 million for Serenity (and Box Office Mojo estimates 2100+ theaters, whereas Coming Soon estimates 2300 theaters).

[ edited by chickenbird on 2005-09-27 17:25 ]

chickenbird | September 27, 19:22 CET

Actually since we are opening in relatively few theaters, I would say $15 million isn't bad, but personally I'm hoping we'll make more the second week. I hope that through good word of mouth and nothing too thrilling opening Oct 7th, that we'll have $20-25 million week two. I would like to see us end up making 'Wedding Crashers' kind of money (knock on wood).

embers | September 27, 19:24 CET

I just realised... imagine Joss was nominated and won Oscars for his writing and directing...

Unfortunately due to the snobby nature and politics and popularity contests involved, I don't see it happening soon, but I certainly believe he deserves a nomination, even though it most likely won't happen. But we can still keep dreaming.

I'm really positive about Serenity, I've spoken to several people about it and although very few of them are already Firefly fans (although I know of at least three outside of my family), everyone else seems either keen to see it or would certainly not object, no one so far has said "That looks terrible!" and a lot of people are at least aware of it.

I am going to try and go once with my family on opening weekend, and with a large groups of my friends too.

Razor | September 27, 20:02 CET

I have a weird feeling that the number Browncoat/Joss fan who are going to see this movie (many taking non-fans and seeing it multiple times)is being underestimated and that Serenity will have a surprise $20-25 million opening weekend. :)

SpookyRiverFan | September 27, 20:05 CET

let's hope so SRF!

Surprised Flightplan beat out Corpse Bride.

[ edited by MySerenity on 2005-09-27 18:08 ]

MySerenity | September 27, 20:05 CET

The $40 million dollar total estimate is based on the author's belief that "word of mouth won't spread that far beyond them [the Browncoats]." Well, as someone who's seen the pre-screening, I'm fairly certain that there will be a good deal of positive word of mouth, so here's hoping... =)

Ronald_SF | September 27, 20:15 CET

MySerenity, I was also surprised at 'Flightplan's take too, but then I discovered it opened in 3500 theaters, quite a few more than 'Corpse Bride'. We're only opening in 2100-2300 so I'm afraid we are somewhat hampered by that (many people will have drive longer distances to get to see the movie).

embers | September 27, 20:20 CET

$12m+ and it's fine opening weekend *as long as* drop off isn't bad second weekend. If it drops second week by a high percentage, theatres *will* take it off screens very quickly -- that's the real danger here.

That said... I'm happy at the moment. I speak to a lot of people -- they are happy. Nervous, yes. Happy, yes.

Serenity's secret weapon: the movie. If people go and see it, word of mouth may well be a real thing people haven't factored in. That could make lots of waves. 'Could'. Hopefully, 'will'.

gossi | September 27, 20:23 CET

(many people will have drive longer distances to get to see the movie).

We're all browncoats and there's little we won't do to see the movie. To quote Buffy in Chosen, "I'm not worried" (with slightly more conviction of course).

MySerenity | September 27, 20:26 CET

I'm sorry but I have High expectations for this film. I want it to get 20-25 million its first week, on the way to 100 million total. I want a damn sequel.

SpikeBad | September 27, 20:40 CET

15 million is good, but i'm just wishing it will be more. All week I have seen nothing but advertisements for "Into the blue", and none of the entertainment shows have done any stories on our BDH's. I just hope it breaks records to show Hollywood that not all of us are braindead fools, who only like films with tons of cgi and having constant "stuff blowin up". Let's choke them on there words. Be mighty this weekend(and next) see it as many times as you can. This concludes the naked rant :)

[ edited by nakedandarticulate on 2005-09-27 18:47 ]

nakedandarticulate | September 27, 20:46 CET

Yeah. I'm optimistic, but nervous. I think that if enough non-Browncoats see it the first weekend, the word of mouth will kick into high gear. I'm just worried that the people in theaters will be largely Browncoats, who've already told everyone they know to go see this movie, and Browncoats alone paying for the tickets won't be enough. But, I think the potential is there for this to be a sleeper hit. There's just too many "ifs" right now, for me to feel too confident.

Gosh, I love this movie. I think it *will* sell itself if people will get into the theaters. I'm crossing my fingers. And telling everyone I know. I'm just sorta shocked that the curtain is almost here. like, it sorta snuck up on me in the last few weeks.

k8cre8 | September 27, 20:49 CET

We'll find out soon enough.

Not by any definition of "soon enough" that I'm aware of!

MissKittysMom | September 27, 20:49 CET

I was at a big street festival on the weekend -"Word on the Street" -and wore one of my more striking and attractive Serenity Tshirts. I was really pleased at how many people told me they were looking forward to this weekend. Some ran after me to find out where I'd gotten the shirt! At least a couple were planning on seeing it "some time" but were more than willing to make it during the first 2 weeks when I explained why.
But I may none-the-less go sit in a tub with my Jayne hat on after I see the movie on Friday.

[ edited by Lioness on 2005-09-27 22:44 ]

Lioness | September 27, 20:51 CET

I would be really happy with $15 million if it meant the #1 spot.

What would also make me happy is less confusion between 'less' and 'fewer'. It's 'fewer than 2,500 screens', not 'less than 2,500 screens'. Grrrrr....

tehipite_tom | September 27, 20:51 CET

SpikeBad, with the number of screens it's playing on, $20 million just isn't that realistic. This prediction has it earning $6,783 per screen, which is GREAT. Any number around $15 or 16 million, plus No. 1 at the box office, will definitely get attention, and perhaps encourage theaters to expand its release - assuming it doesn't drop off too much in week 2, of course....

Oh, and tehipite? I share your fewer/less irritation. Grrr, indeed.

acp | September 27, 20:57 CET

The problem is people say 'I want it to get $20m and beat into the blue'.. But the reality is, if wishes could be horses. I think it's probable Serenity will come in 2nd or 3rd behind Into The Blue and Corpse Bride. Why? Those are very easy films to sell, and they're opening in more theatres. It's not rocket science to see any film with Half Naked 'Famous' People in being happy will do well, but then crash 2nd weekend when word of mouth kills it.

That said, as I keep saying: Serenity's biggest weapon is the film itself. It's so rare this Summer, in fact, I think most critics have forgotten about the idea of a decent sci-fi action film.

Also: Serenity has budget reserved for a 2nd week advertising push (hence not going over the top this week - a common mistake they've made with things like "Stealth" this year, leaving them with no more advertising budget). Serenity needs longer term advertising. Keep the momentum going, keep it in cinemas.

If a sequel happens, I could imagine the vastly expanded fanbase (millions more fans) making an AMAZING opening weekend. But this time around? I don't expect that. I want a longer term, profitable return from the movie.

gossi | September 27, 21:00 CET

Earlier this week my optimistic guess was 20 million and pessimisitic guess was 14 million. I believed that Corpse Bride will be #1(I don't think its going to dip) and Serenity would be #2 with Into the Blue at #3.

Now I'm not so sure on where I put Into The Blue. I saw Alba on Leno last night and I've been seeing alot more ITB ads. For every Serenity ad I see 2 more ITB ads. And unlike the Serenity ads they've already put out a "critics" one. Not unsurprisingly Sony only included one word quotes.

I think Flightplan is going to dip big. I see alot of people panning it after seeing the film.

[ edited by eddy on 2005-09-27 19:17 ]

eddy | September 27, 21:14 CET

Something that occurred to me: the relatively limited opening (fewer than 2,500 screens) may be a feature, not a bug. Anybody here recall how Star Wars built its buzz? By opening on a limited number of screens (I remember trekking from Berkeley out to the Coronet to see it), thus generating long lines and the appearance of unsatisfied demand. If a significant number of theatres in key urban areas are packed all weekend, that'll generate some coverage. (So will midnight showings, like the Metreon in San Francisco is doing.) And the number to look at won't necessarily be the opening weekend total per se--it'll be the per screen average.

Or I could be completely wrong. I dunno.

tehipite_tom | September 27, 21:16 CET

Gossi raises a good point about Universal saving money for a 2nd-week push. That would make sense, given the way they're likely to market the movie, as more of a "This is the movie audiences and critics are raving about!" kind of campaign, with big quotes from respectful publications and googly-eyed people stepping out of the theaters with victory signs cheering, etc., etc. Dontcha think?

[ edited by Ronald_SF on 2005-09-27 19:49 ]

Ronald_SF | September 27, 21:37 CET

Something that occurred to me: the relatively limited opening (fewer than 2,500 screens) may be a feature, not a bug. Anybody here recall how Star Wars built its buzz?

Actually, I think Star Wars openned initially 11 theatres or something incredibly small like that, before openning to a wider and wider release. But that was a completely different era, where movies would be in theatres for several months making money slowly over time.

Before the screen count I was estimating $20 million and hoping that it could be as high as $25 million. But with just 2,100 theatres, I think $15 million would be pretty good. Still $20 million or more would be incredible and likely mean that Serenity will make enough to get pass $80 million internationally in order to get a sequel.

Matt_Fabb | September 27, 22:01 CET

There's one thing for sure: if it gets $5m or so, we're in serious dogshit. I do have serious concerns so to how many true 'fans' are out there - I think it's been exaggerated heavily - so I think a very large percentage of the success of this movie is going to come from average jo and joettas.

gossi | September 27, 22:15 CET

What I'm worried about how many fans won't be able to see it. I saw a post on IMDB where a guy said he wouldn't be able to see it friday night because the movie isn't playing by him and he'd have to take the ferry to seattle.

eddy | September 27, 22:18 CET

Not all the movie tickets are online yet - the theatres haven't added the tickets on sale yet. So people are freaking out for NO REASON in most cases.

I've emailed TPTP and asked them to put out an announcement about it as it's just stupid -- because some of the Friday screenings are online, everybody is presuming all the tickets are online.

gossi | September 27, 22:20 CET

OK,
2100 screens *
(approximate) number of viewings during weekend *
(approximate) number of seats *
(approximate) ticket price
=
???

I am not American. Who can provide the missing numbers? Rough estimates will suffice :)

[ edited by lince on 2005-09-27 20:25 ]

[ edited by lince on 2005-09-27 20:26 ]

Lince | September 27, 22:23 CET

MattM --

The exception to your rule is the "sleeper" -- "Serenity" is a film that "comes out of nowhere" for most people, so the possibility of the second weekend matching or outstripping the first is more real than usual.

As for Oscars -- don't expect anything like a sweep even in terms of tech nominations or anything, but it's not outside the realm of possibility to get a best screenplay nom. for Joss (screenplays are traditionally the loosest category), which he probably won't win, and a Best Supporting actor for Chewitel E. -- and I think he could win that, depending on the competition. It's a wonderful performance and his star is definitely on the rise. An Oscar nomination or win in a major category would be a big help in the long run.

bobster | September 27, 22:37 CET

BTW the second weekend is Columbus Day weekend here in the USA. That can work for or against us. I can't go the second weekend because I will be on a retreat-like thing in the woods with my son, brother, and a bunch of people who are much more of the fannish sort than I have ever been. So that lets out that whole group. On the other hand, many other people will have a long weekend with the kids at home. Then there are the Jewish High Holy Days to figure in...

I will be going first weekend but not first night because that is the only night a singer from Nashville who I really like will be in this area doing a concert. So then my friend tells me she can only go to Serenity with me on Sunday if we can't go Friday night.

Did I hear right that Sundays are not tallied in the weekend take? 'Cause that doesn't seem right. (sigh)

Just thinking enough about all this in order to write this post has really made me tired. I can just imagine how the folks whose livelihood rides on it must be feeling. :-(

newcj | September 27, 22:54 CET

I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see score and/or production design/set decoration noms as well, definitely have expectations for Mr. Ejiofor, who was amazing as always. Hopeful? Maybe, but why not? :) Corpse Bride will see more of a drop off than a lot of folks think, lotsa folks saying it wasn't up to snuff.

[ edited by zeitgeist on 2005-09-27 21:01 ]

zeitgeist | September 27, 22:57 CET

I won't be able to go this first weekend, sadly :-( but definitely next week. Does that count in the second weekend total? Not that our $20 really makes any difference...

acp | September 27, 23:04 CET

Corpse Bride will be in its second weekend so I can easily see Serenity beating it, plus I watched that movie over the weekend and was disappointed. If I'm not the only one, expect a good drop in its ticket sales. Personally, I don't see the appeal of Into the Blue, but that's just me. If Serenity is #1, that will create a lot of buzz, plus the additional word-of-mouth should keep it steady for the following weekend.

killinj | September 27, 23:07 CET

I made calls to city theaters yesterday and discovered that not one in Greensboro appears to be showing Serenity. Luckily it's being shown in High Point, which is not far, but still. I'm a teensy bit irritated that nobody in my own town thought to pick it up when the ads have been running heavily on our local TV affiliates, and I'm hoping the non-JW sci-fi fans/regular Friday night movie-goers will drive the extra few miles to HP to give it a chance.

I'll be going with a group of 6-8 people, and will probably try to see it again on Sunday after being out of town in the time between. How many times does everyone here estimate they will be going on opening weekend?

Wiseblood | September 27, 23:13 CET

How we get to $15 million:

500,000 copies of the DVD
* $10/per ticket
* 3 times each
= $15 million

So, we all just have to see it three times each over opening weekend. ;-)

(btw, I recall reading that the preview screenings would be counted in opening weekend take. That should be good for another, what, $100,000 or so?)

tehipite_tom | September 27, 23:22 CET

Through my own, extremely unscientific qualifications (I've been obsessing over scenarios and numbers the last couple days), I think we can make at least 8 million. What I hope is that we can make it to the 10 - 15 million dollar range opening weekend, but I think that will be hard to do, for the reasons dottikin and nakedandarticulate mentioned.

Frankly, I'll just be glad when these first few weeks of Serenity's theatrical release are over. I'm more nervous about this than I should be - mostly, I think, because of Uni's guerilla marketing approach and the feeling that the success of this film really is weighing on the Browncoats' shoulders.

Wiseblood - This doesn't exactly answer your question, but I'll be seeing the movie on at least three separate occassions during the first two weeks (in order to drag along different groups of family and friends).

obsessed | September 27, 23:24 CET

I believe that Corpse Bride will be #1(I don't think its going to dip)

Corpse Bride wasn't #1 this past weekend, though. I really don't think that most parents are going to take their kids to a movie called "Corpse Bride." And all the Hot Topic kids saw it last weekend. It'll drop to below $15 million. Probably more like 10.

And Bobster: Sleepers are few and far between. It would be nice if Serenity became one, and I think that it's a good enough film to generate positive word-of-mouth, but you can't bank on a Sixth Sense/Scream-like box office pattern. If people are pinning their hopes on that, odds are they'll be disappointed.

I hope I'm wrong, but odds are I'm not.

MattM | September 27, 23:26 CET

Wiseblood -- Seeing as how I'm in the middle of school, I'll probably only have time to see it once, but I will be dragging a large group of friends with me. (And if I do have time for an extra movie, I'll go see MirrorMask or A History of Violence.)

I'll probably go once more during the second weekend.

bobothebrave | September 27, 23:29 CET

Movies are so hard to predict lately. This year has had some surprises. 'Sin City' which also had a cult following, but looked really weird to mainstream people, openened to 30 million. And yes it had more famous names in the cast, but when was the last time any of the leads had a hit? (Remember Eljah Wood's role was very tiny) It did some really good business and the sequel is being made now.

Then we have intended blockbusters with big(ger) budgets and famous leads that fell flat on their faces. (Cinderella Man, Kindgom of Heaven, The Island, Stealth, The Man, Lord of War, etc) Let's face it, there are hardly any people right now who with their name and face alone guarantee a hit. Even War of the Worlds, while of course successful, performed below what was expected.

Corpse Bride wasn't #1 this past weekend, though. I really don't think that most parents are going to take their kids to a movie called "Corpse Bride." And all the Hot Topic kids saw it last weekend. It'll drop to below $15 million. Probably more like 10.

Exactly what I was thinking. If it didn't make it to number one in it's opening weekend, I doubt it will make it in the second. (And really why didn't they wait for Halloween with that one anyway??) Drop offs of 50% are normal, so next weekend is indeed quite possibly 10. Serenity should be able to beat 10.

From what I've heard that Flight movie with Jodie Foster kinda sinks in at the end so maybe word of mouth will make it drop off nicely too. (No offense to Jodie obvioulsy, but...ya know)

I think people don't just blindly go by 'names' anymore, and are generally tired of generic formula crap. Serenity at least looks different from anything else, and since they did a nice job of showing the action and the humor, it might look like entertaining and fun which is of course the main thing.

I think it stands a good chance to do well. But it's impossible to call...

EdDantes | September 28, 00:45 CET

One person over on the official site said that the theatre at which he works was scheduled to show Serenity but that Universal had recalled a lot of prints. Since we saw one at the end of August that had bad sound and colour, I can believe that some have been recalled. Let's just hope it isn't too many.

Lioness | September 28, 00:49 CET

Lioness, the copy I saw in Bluewater last week was a bit ropey in places. Not bad, but I did notice a few sound/picture blemishes.

zz9 | September 28, 02:32 CET

I'm going once on opening afternoon then I'm going on opening night(I hope to bring someone with me) and then I'm going again on saturday night.

eddy | September 28, 02:44 CET

Serenity at least looks different from anything else, and since they did a nice job of showing the action and the humor, it might look like entertaining and fun

The problem is that it first to be perceived as funny and action-filled -- people have to be made aware of it through advertising and a media campaign. I really don't know if the ad campaign has been adequate to this.

dottikin | September 28, 06:46 CET

September 27 2005