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September 29 2005

Box Office Guru Predicts Serenity's Opening. They say it could open at number one with about 16 million.

This was posted earlier this week
It's going to be more than 16 million! Everyone is underestimating the size of the Browncoat Corps! :)
RavenU: That was from comingsoon.net. Box Office Guru just posted this today.
Still it's pretty much the same info - the other said 15 million and it has the feel of deja'vu to it. Actually there are about 4 other sites saying the same thing. It kinda falls under being redundant right now - since it is only a prediction.

[ edited by RavenU on 2005-09-29 18:46 ]
I suppose... For me it's nice to see another forecaster predicting Serenity at No. 1, despite the somewhat crowded field.
Off-topic, if any of you get a chance to go to another movie (after you've seen Serenity several times, of course) I saw A History of Violence two days ago and thought it was fantastic.
Not so surprisingly, all of the weekend forecast will seem the same, but it's worth linking to them for specific details. ComingSoon had nothing about the high awareness among teens.
I think this is good data point. I've been reading boxofficeguru's predictions and analysis (which are their own) for years.
It's simple if Serenity sells 1000 tickets per theatre it's playing this weekend it will clear 15 million. It has an uphill battle since Serenity is in only 2,188 theatres compared to other films.

Last weekends numbers here are the numbers:
Box Office Rating - Movie - Gross - Theatres - Per Theatre - Total Gross - # of days in Release

1 Flightplan - Buena Vista - $24,629,938 - 3,424 - $7,193 - $24,629,938 - 3
2 The Corpse Bride - Warner Bros. - $19,145,480 - 3,204 - $5,975 - $19,656,451 - 10
3 Just Like Heaven - Dreamworks SKG - $9,621,591 - 3,509 - $2,742 - $29,818,607 - 10
4 Roll Bounce - Fox Searchlight - $7,570,366 - 1,625 - $4,659 - $7,570,366 - 3
5 The Exorcism of Emily Rose - Sony Pictures - $7,448,102 - 3,045 - $2,446 - $62,256,212 - 17

This months box office #1's:
Opening date - Movie - Weekend Gross - Theatres - Per Theatre
9/02 - The Transporter 2 - $16,540,720 - 3,303 - $5,008 - $16,540,720 - 3
9/09 - The Exorcism of Emily Rose - $30,054,300 - 2,981 - $10,082 - $30,054,300 - 3
9/16 - Just Like Heaven - $16,408,718 - 3,508 - $4,678 - $16,408,718 - 3
9/23 - Flightplan - $24,629,938 - 3,424 - $7,193 - $24,629,938 - 3

Rating was PG-13 on all the movies that hit number 1 this month.

[ edited by RavenU on 2005-09-29 21:09 ]
FYI - Serenity has broken into the pro imdb MovieMeter top 10 at number 10. Nathan's jumped to 130 in the StarMeter rating. If anyone's interested in the ratings breakdown, let me know. Its highest rated by adults in the 30-44 age bracket, and oddly enough, higher rated by women than men!
I'm excited to see another "analyst" predict a good opening weekend for Serenity.

I can't wait until tomorrow night.
Well, I'm more interested in its "legs", than the opening weekend.
The word of mouth must be good (and that's a fact :p)
Call me going out on a limb here, but I'm thinking 'Serenity' will break the $20M on opening week-end. I've always been one of those "glass half-full, happy go lucky" people. Yet, I usually apply reason to those thoughts. My thoughts (and gut) are telling me 'Serenity' holds a surprise yet. I just wish I can see the faces over at FOX this Monday.
Just to defend the redundancy of the link I posted, boxofficeguru is one of the premiere box office sites on the web. Along with boxofficemojo, it's the only site I've seen quoted on box office articles in national newspapers. So I posted it because I thought this prediction was more significant than the one posted earlier this week. Plus, it goes into more detail in its reasoning than the other one did.
It's a good post, bonzob. Thank you for sharing it with us :)
The great part about all of these isn't that they are just mentioning Serenity at #1, no, it is the fact that beyond any shadow of a doubt, the fans know personally that we can make this movie make more than any prediction. So just the fact that they are already predicting so high is great news if we can do the impossible and beat it.
I can't call it. I just can't. That 'Transporter2' did 20M in a quiet time of the year I could see. That 'Emiliy Rose' did 30m still boggles my mind completely. And that 'Corpse Bride' did as well as 'Transporter2' and way below 'Emily Rose' I never would've thought. I have no idea what the trailers look like to the uninitiated. To save my life I can't predict this.

I hope Browncoats everywhere do see it multiple times. (we're planning to) but if that Jessica Alba titty-movie beats Serenity I may have to walk off a cliff. Don't wanna live in THAT world...
My frame of mind mirrors EdDantes' exactly.
Was it Joss who started the rumor that Jessica Alba spends 95% of that movie in a parka? :)
Thanks for posting, bonzob.

I'm going at least twice this weekend.
Hey! EdDantes, I have it on good authority that Jessica Alba wears polar fleece through the whole movie!

Actually, I'm with you, too, though. It's too close to call. I didn't even really know about "Into the Blue" until this week. To me, Serenity's the only movie this weekend, or next. We're just too close too it all. But, don't throw yourselves off a cliff. Week 2 counts, too.
Seeing it at least twice this weekend (I have some free screenings to make up for... wait, does pimping the DVD count towards my balance sheet? If so they still owe me ;) KIDDING!) and will see it again after that.
$16,000,000 is a very good opening considering the low theater count (2,188). That's a $7,300 per-screen-average, which is really good.
Like EdDantes, I can't call it. Moviegoing masses' tastes almost always suprise me. I'm going at least three times this weekend. And I'm glad you posted this, bonzob.
I do believe Serenity will top $20M, based not only on how many of us are going, but how many times we'll go, and more importantly how many people we're taking with us. For example, if every Firefly DVD sold (500,000 reportedly) translates to 5 tickets opening weekend, that's 2,500,000 tickets, which is about $20M. Mileage will vary, but my DVD set will translate into 8 tickets sold this weekend.

I'm more worried about legs. I do believe word of mouth will be good, but I don't know if it'll draw in people that would not normally see a movie like this anyway. And my DVD set will only translate to maybe 2 tickets the second week, so we clearly need a new audience, even beyond the ones we've already converted.
Gee, this raises the stakes. If Into the Blue does too well we may lose Whedonesquers!?! (...Whedonesqueteers?) Hang in there, Serenity will do great. But you may as well stay away from high places anyway for the next week or so because we really want to keep everybody. Okay?
We'll always have Paris Wonder Woman.
Well, if Serenity does well enough (and if we're willing to go see it a second and maybe evena third time in theaters), then hopefully this will also create a buzz that drowns out the "canceled TV show" or "dumb sci-fi flick" vibe that I'm getting from some of the masses. On the other hand ...

No, EdDantes is right, this is impossible to call. I guess the important thing to remember is that the (domestic) opening weekend, while important, is only a small part of Serenity's overall fate.
Well, I'm all over the overseas market, my friends! Er..that might sound wrong...anyway, I'll be seeing it at least 3 times over the opening weekend, with different peeps every time.
Jessica Alba's last 3 movies on their opening weekends:
7/8/2005 Fantastic Four $56,061,504 - Budget $87,500,000
4/1/2005 Sin City $29,120,273 - Budget $40,000,000
12/5/2003 Honey $12,856,040
I just came back from a rum tasting tour so please excuse my soft mind. Feels like my brain was dipped in formaldehyde. Maybe it was, that explains it! The rambling I mean...

Anyway, I still predict 20 million on this opening week-end. If I'm wrong, you may throw fruits and various meats. Be forewarned, I'll throw back;)
So, I have a question. I am of course going to see it opening night. But even if I can't make it for a second showing this weekend, if I buy tickets say at moviephone, but then end up not going will that still count towards overall ticket sales?? I mean I waste 10 dollars a week on lottery tickets. So I guess I'm just thinking if I can invest a little bit to help Joss out then why the hell not?!??!?
batboy- That sounds good to me, if you don't mind spending the cash. You should try to pick a time when many people aren't likely to show up, so as to avoid taking a seat from someone who might have actually watched the movie.
A ticket sale is a ticket sale whether the person actually shows up to watch it or not. I wish I could have gone on a rum tasting tour today ... I'm stuck at work.
77 on the tomatometer!!!!!!!
At this point I'm intrigued by Wonder Woman, but I really, really care about the 'verse. I want the 'verse back on television, but I'm looking forward to finally seeing Serenity.

There is no way I can pretend to gauge what this weekend or next weekend will mean for Serenity at the box office. I have more, but still not that much faith in the professional predictors. All I know is a lot of us 'coats are seeing it tomorrow. I'm seeing it twice tomorrow, and I plan to see it again next weekend.
There are a lot of female fans, more than this and other reviews/predictions would suggest, and a good number OVER 45. Many are fans of Whedon's work from BTVS, and were smart enough to start following Firefly when it aired on Fox, then buy the DVDs (whereas there seemed to be a higher proportion of younger women who liked Buffy but didn't like Firefly, at least among the people I know...I'm not generalizing here!).

I know there are all ages and everything on this board, but there seems to be a consensus in critic-land that this is a sci-fi boy movie, and IMHO one of the surprises will be the variety of peeps of all ages and genders that turn out. There are plenty of Whedon fans who don't post (or lurk much) online who will have their Butts in Seats for Serenity (and not all of them like crowds, so I bet some are willing to wait until the next week/weekend).
batboy - your energy is contagious... I decided to catch the 12:01am show tonight - instead of just going on Saturday with my Whedon friends and our significant others.

Here's to 20 Million for Joss! =) And to coffee tomorrow morning for all of us heading off to work hours later...
It's true, nearly all the Whedon fans I know are women.

Also, I'm going on Friday and taking 10 friends, seeing it again Saturday with the family, and maybe catching the midnight show tonight. If Serenity surprises everyone's expectations with a 20 million opening (which would be very, very impressive considering the screen count) it will get TONS of free publicity, which should really help with the second weekend.
There are no screenings for 40 miles in any direction from my home town.

Honestly, I'm incredibly angry about this.
I decided to catch the 12:01am show tonight - instead of just going on Saturday with my Whedon friends and our significant others.

Me too! I was just gonna go Sat night with a big group of friends and friends of friends, but somehow I've ended up buying a ticket to the midnight showing with a friend of mine who can't make it to the Sat night group thing. Woo hoo!
I'll be doing my part as well. Tickets are purchased. Seeing our BDM Friday and Saturday night with different groups of friends. My treat. However, they are gonna have to buy there own concessionary goodies...'cuz hey, I'm not rich.

Also, giving an extra credit assignment to my classes if they bring in a Serenity ticket stub along with a short essay on a movie related topic of their choosing within the next 3 weeks. That means I've preached the gospel to about 178 eighth graders (all at least 13 years of age, I'll have you know).

A ticket sale is a ticket sale and well yeah, there is writing involved. Hence, an academically appropriate assignment.
A little self-justification, keeps me from feeling so manipulative.

Plus, if it keeps them from watching that bikini-clad atrocity; I figure I'm doing society a favor.

Then on Sunday. Alone. So I can savor it properly.

Edited 'cuz I can't spell..........

[ edited by Rank Amateur on 2005-10-01 08:48 ]

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