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October 01 2005

Boxofficemojo.com forecast for the weekend. Serenity leads with 15.0 millions, followed by Flightplan (13.5) and Into the Blue (11.3).

Let's hope that they are very right.

They usually are, so... *crosses fingers*

(Though their reviews are quite questionable. I even wrote them hate mail last year for giving Princess Diaries 2 an A-, and Spider-Man 2 a C.)
Serenity will hit # 1, they have the best reviews for this weekends movies. Into the Blue has the total opposite. I doubt FlightPlan will make much of a difference.
I have this gripping notion at the bottom of my stomach. I don't like it. I wish I had one of those shiny time machines so I could go forward and see what place it get to.

Im praying for Number One!

I think I'm going to go upstairs and watch all the deleted scenes together and pretend its the 16th episode.

And also eat ice-cream. For the gripping in my stomach.
I've been trying my best to convince dozens of people that it isn't actually some lame, common, rip-off of Star Wars and stuff. It's difficult, but a few people have agreed to go with me.
I think I'm going to go upstairs and watch all the deleted scenes together and pretend its the 16th episode.


Apocalypse, are you talking about the deleted scenes on the Firefly DVD, or do you somehow have Serenity's axed bits? Because it seems to me that the deleted scenes from Firefly would only add up to a teaser for the 16th episode...

And if you have Serenity's deleted scenes? I'm thinkin' violence will ensue if you don't get them into my hands...
I'm sorry, I only got the DVD Deleted scenes. Wish I had the ones from 'Serenity'

Its a really good teaser though...
And also eat ice-cream. For the gripping in my stomach


Good idea. Everything can be solved by ice cream, except ...

Oh wait, that was chocolate :)
And "Serenity" is opening at less theaters too. Won't that be taken into consideration when they tally up the amounts at the end of the weekend that "Serenity" opened in a limited amount of theaters compared to "Out of the Blue"?

What are these deleted scenes you are talking about!??! More info please?!!
LOL. - I happen to think that Star Wars eps I, II & III are all "lame, common, rip-off(s) of Star Wars and stuff!" And trust me, I've been a diehard Star Wars fan since before the original came out! I have to say Star Wars was the first time I let myself be "spoiled" as I read the adaptation before I saw the film - all at age 12 when it first came out!

Having said that, I believe that Serenity will do well, it is getting good reviews (and lots of them). Even the ones that aren't exactly "rave" don't seem to be hating it. While it probably won't make the kagillions of dollars the SW franchise does, I think it will be successful. Side Note: If "Out of the Blue" or "Into the Blue" or whatever the Blue THAT movie is, does better than Serenity, I'll eat my hat.
Serenity... Godly... Brain pain...
Sorry but I have a problem taking prediction seriously when I look at their predictions from previous weeks and they have no real consistancy to them.
Here's why I'm worried. I saw the film in May at an advance screening, and basically loved it, although I had some problems. I gave it a B+. Somehow, though, seeing all those great reviews made me think I'd liked it more than I had. I saw it again by myself at a midnight show last night, and while I enjoyed it, I got kinda worried. I'm seeing it tonight with a bunch of friends, of which only two know about Joss and Firefly. The rest are into film, but not particularly into Sci-Fi. I know it's been debated to death, but I'm now worried that without love of the genre or knowledge of the show, they might hate it, and I might end up feeling like I do whenever I try to defend Buffy. Fingers crossed that they'll be pleasantly surprised.
By the way, today is now officially the busiest day in the Whedonesque history - 19647 visits and counting.

Yay to us! :)

[ edited by Lince on 2005-09-30 23:43 ]
Fingers crossed that they'll be pleasantly surprised.

I took two friends to see it last night - they are neither Sci-Fi fans nor viewers of "Firefly". They've both enjoyed Star Wars - but just as another film or films that they've seen. They only know the name Joss Whedon because I've told them about Joss Whedon (and mostly because I met him recently).

They *loved* it. And these two can be critical. If something bugs them it keeps bugging them. But nothing did. Small criticisms were almost meaningless because they couldn't stop talking about how much fun they had and what great action and suspense and costumes!

And one of them was desperate to watch "Firefly"! The best recommendation there can be.
So, as I kill time until my Serenity showing tonight, I did some random math.

$15,000,000 on 2188 theaters is $6855.58 per theater.

Assuming there are on average 15 showings per theater this weekend (5 per day, 3 days, with some theaters showing less, some more), that's $457 per showing. And at an average ticket price of $6 (made completely up - anyone know what it actually is?), that means they need 76 people on average per showing to make that money.

Or less convolutedly, $6855.58/6 = 1143 people per theater for the whole weekend (or 2.5 million people nationwide).

That seems doable, doesn't it?

Me = procrastinating big geek.
I'm on my knees praying it's doable. And don't forget the pre-screenings, plus I think the avg. ticket price is closer to $7, there will be more people in the evening shows than the matinees and ticket prices are getting really expensive these days. I live in San Fran, one of the cities to have Mirrormask this weekend, and it's playing at a chain theater that usually plays indie films (Landmark) and the matinee price is $7.75. Which means I probably won't see it -- too much money for a small, crappy screen size, even though I do want to see the movie.

I felt better about their prediction after scanning their old predictions -- they're fairly accurate. I figure I'd give them a $5m plus or minus range, so from $10-20m possibility, and I'm frankly very satisfied with that.
Looking at Yahoo's movie page, Serenity has almost 1200 viewer reviews compared to Into the Blue's 387. While part of this must be attributable to the Firefly fan base (plus the early screenings), I have to think that Serentiy is going to outdo Boxoffice Mojo's prediction of 33% better than Alba's flick.

It probably won't triple it (unless Into the Blue is a complete bomb), but I wouldn't be surprised if it does double.
Oh - I think we might have forgoten one other factor - all those screenings over the summer also play a factor into this weekends box office results.
bonzob - I understand exactly how you're feeling and have had very similar thoughts but then I remember that I'm not particularly into Sci-Fi myself, as a general rule, and I relax a little.
I think the film needs to do stronger than $15 mil or do about that again next weekend if Universal is going to greenlight another one...or three.

Then again, what do I know? I'm just pulling like hell for the top spot and about $20 mil for opening weekend.

[ edited by Mikie on 2005-10-01 10:44 ]
Yes, it feels like the battle of Serenity again. Only this time, I believe, our Big Damn Heroes gonna win. They have got reinforcements :)

My completely uninformed, unsubstantiated forecast for the weekend (more like a gut feeling) - Serenity will get around 20$m, and then another 25$m during the next week.

[ edited by Lince on 2005-10-01 13:18 ]
With the film costing 40 million, as long as its get 60 million or more by the end of its run, it'll have made half it's budget up already as you divide the box office takings by 2, as only half goes back to the studios as the theatres take the other half.

So with international releases coming up and the dvd sales which will be big of cource, I think a sequel will definately happen. The dvd factor alone is huge these days.

[ edited by SeanValen on 2005-10-01 15:20 ]

[ edited by SeanValen on 2005-10-01 15:23 ]

[ edited by SeanValen on 2005-10-01 15:24 ]
Movie is playing in 33 theaters in the DC area...there's a decent-sized ad in today's Washington Post's Style section...the promotion seems to be pretty good.

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