October 07 2005
Box Office Mojo's weekend estimate is now out. They are expecting a large drop.
Box Office Mojo estimates that Serenity will make $4.8 million and be in 7th place for the weekend.
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MySerenity | October 07, 07:47 CET
Andy Dufresne | October 07, 07:52 CET
electricspacegirl | October 07, 07:54 CET
MattM | October 07, 07:54 CET
Lince | October 07, 07:57 CET
zeitgeist | October 07, 07:57 CET
gossi | October 07, 08:00 CET
MattM | October 07, 08:21 CET
Well, whatever the case, here's hoping people go and see it this weekend.
gossi | October 07, 08:25 CET
RogueScribner | October 07, 08:40 CET
phlebotinin | October 07, 08:43 CET
Ocular | October 07, 09:04 CET
Simon | October 07, 09:07 CET
Yes, but films can buck the trend. And with a strong per-screen gross the first weekend and - hopefully - strong word-of-mouth the film could resist the typical 40% drop of most films.
If it only manages 4.8 this weekend, then the marketing and the good crits and the word-of-mouth hasn't worked. Still doesn't say anything for the quality of the film, but does mean we need to hope it finds an audience on DVD.
crossoverman | October 07, 09:07 CET
- You can call it critically acclaimed. 81% of reviews tracked by Rotten Tomatoes are positive.
- It was delivered on time.
- On budget.
- Only one scene reshoot (or rather, additional pick up).
- It will make it's money back long term.
- The fan base tended to love it (it measures around 90-95% positive feedback).
- The exit polls suggest good feedback from those who actually went to see it.
In terms of 'franchise' (I can see why Mary Parent doesn't use the word now...), I don't know. It hasn't blown away the box office like some people were optimistically predicting.
It's done well. It's been critically excellent received. It's made waves online, having the most amount of online buzz since... forever probably. Maybe it hasn't appealed to the unwashed masses. But that shouldn't distract from the acheivements.
gossi | October 07, 09:15 CET
rockchalkwatcher | October 07, 09:20 CET
And I was really hoping for more ads about it. Last week, I saw Serenity trailers on tv all the time. Now I've seen one all week, and only heard of one per night on network tv. Has Uni really dumped this already? I just see so much they could be capitalizing on that they're neglecting. I think if Serenity really does poor business this weekend, Uni should bear some of the guilt.
Rogue Slayer | October 07, 09:20 CET
Which scene and why?
Storyteller | October 07, 09:23 CET
"Do you know your part in all this?"
"Do You?".
Andy Dufresne | October 07, 09:31 CET
One thing I'll say about the advertising on target focus is that it's been very genre specific, almost too much on the fan audience. Of course, maybe I've just got a jaded perception of things.
The reality is Universal could have done far worse to the movie - a lot of studioes just dump advertising completely as soon as a movie hits theatres.
The reality is, Universal's "Doom" is coming very very soon. That's going to really piss fans off. Because they're going to plaster it everywhere very soon, in Serenity's place. What is the movie like? Uhm. Let's just say it doesn't share Serenity's qualities, and the reviews will be funny. Will it do well? Probably. Aliens, guns, The Rock.
gossi | October 07, 09:31 CET
WhedonTrivia | October 07, 09:36 CET
I actually couldn’t believe it (in a good way) when Serenity opened in second place when I was fearing that it might make its first appearance in something like seventh or worse. I want it to be successful for Joss’s sake and for everyone that had some hand in getting it made, but also for the movie going public’s sake. People that seem all to willing to accept the same old safe comforting macaroni and cheese movies. I also want Serenity to be seen and make money because it’s good and it deserves to, not merely to ensure any sequels. I feel so lucky that we have it at all since “this movie should not exist” and I feel selfish when I’m trying to see into the future instead of appreciating what’s here and now.
It’s a success no matter what the box office says in the end.
bloodflowers | October 07, 09:40 CET
It's not all doom (excuse the pun) and gloom, though. Serenity, like I say, will break even. The studio liked it. Hopefully DVD sales will be through the roof.
I did everything I possibly could to get people to go see this. I really mean that. I really hope they go.
gossi | October 07, 09:41 CET
I still think a good turnout is attainable here though. If we keep doing our bit, we can maybe keep the weekend drop to 20-25%. Mayhaps we'll get to see Devin eat his words after all.
IMForeman | October 07, 09:44 CET
I like gossi's, bloodflower's and vampire dan's general take on Serenity's fate: we got our BDM and it got largely glowing reviews. Two major victories right there. The mainstream press "got" Serenity! Fabulous. And we got our BDM. If the general public doesn't go to see it, then that's that.
Out of curiosity, how did the original Star Wars do in its first few weeks? It was a little movie that came out of nowhere, I know that. How long did it take to do very well?
phlebotinin | October 07, 09:44 CET
RavenU | October 07, 09:46 CET
rockchalkwatcher | October 07, 09:50 CET
But in the end, if the film comes out critically hailed and breaks even at the BO, I just keep going back to "Nothing like a major motion picture to help you get over having your tv show cancelled."
GrrrAargh | October 07, 09:57 CET
I really can imagine "Doom" opening big. A certain movie studio is very, very hot on it.
I've said it before, I'll say it again: in a world where American Idol is the number 1 TV show in America, and Adam Sandler is a movie star... anything is possible with the publics taste.
[ edited by gossi on 2005-10-07 17:00 ]
gossi | October 07, 09:59 CET
looking | October 07, 10:01 CET
I was wondering about that becaues I didn't see a single one this week on the same channels that showed them all the time last week. Sci FI, Adult Swim, Spike TV, Fox, now zippo.
I heard there was one on WB during Smallville, but does anyone know what other channels they have been on? 'Cause really I can't shake that feeling that this campaign was dumped like a ton of bricks to cut some losses right when it mattered the most! And no I'm not trying to play the blame game but so far everything had been done right and I could accept it if things didn't work out.
But now I see a crap follow-up campaign when it could've made the most difference.
EdDantes | October 07, 10:01 CET
[ edited by zeitgeist on 2005-10-07 17:08 ]
zeitgeist | October 07, 10:08 CET
BTW, on Blaming Universal... I don't think that's a good. Universal paid for our BDM, they did market the BDM (which is an admittedly hard film to market) and more important, they let Joss do it his way. I think a big round of applause is warranted for 'Versal.
IMForeman | October 07, 10:27 CET
MySerenity | October 07, 10:41 CET
RavenU | October 07, 10:43 CET
Yes, we owe them a lot. A ton. Would have never been made without them. But I wouldn't thank a doctor who brought my child into the world only to let it die a week later for lack of trying. Yeah, that's extreme and melodramatic, but I'm feeling extreme and melodramatic right now. I don't want this to be a failed movie based on a failed tv show, ya know? I don't want this to just be a love letter to Firefly fans, I want it be how the world 'discovers' Joss. And since I'm not seeing ads where I saw them last week, and that's obviously Uni's doing, I feel they are slightly responsible if it doesn't do well this weekend. Some folks see them constantly, and that's great. I don't know why they pulled them out of LA-maybe it's doing well here, maybe it's a lost cause here, I don't know.
And yes, word of mouth will be responsible too. And concept salability. And competing movies. There are a lot of factors, I don't feel Uni will be solely to blame, but they'll have a part that they didn't hold up--for whatever reason which I'm not judging.
I hope more than anything that this weekend bucks predictions and counters my pessimism(that feels like realism right now). I'm going to see it twice more. My $20 won't mean much, but now I'm going more to see the audience reactions. And to see how many butts are in seats. I guess I'm just watching the life-support monitor at this point. Praying for a miracle. Because even slightly beating expectations isn't going to do much. We really need *some*thing big to happen.
Rogue Slayer | October 07, 10:51 CET
There probably are reasons for lack of appearances on shows. Certainly, with things like Oprah, you just aren't going to get them on that. They go for guests who will make a big draw audience wise, the most famous person you have in Serenity was the pirate from Dodgeball, or the drug addict gay german from 28 Days...
gossi | October 07, 10:52 CET
RavenU | October 07, 10:55 CET
I think the fans are distorting the numbers too much for any "normal" distribution pattern to hold true. That's why Serenity suffered a drop after it's Friday opening, unlike all the other top movies. This weekend is going to show what effect word of mouth has had. I think that big fans will likely go again so I strongly doubt that it will drop over 50%.
BTW, at my local theater at least, Corpse Bride is down to one screen while Serenity still has two.
Also, A History of Violence is STILL strictly reporting estimates instead of actuals. What's up with that? It's still not even showing in my area, and BOM isn't showing any increase in screens. Strange that a movie doing as well per screen as is being reported isn't increasing it's coverage.
rkayn | October 07, 11:06 CET
Please, please stop the gloom. I may be stupid and naïve, but why would a studio make any decisions about sequels before they have even gotten to the part where they shovel cash into the vault by the truckload?
Decisions like that are way down the line IMHO and we all know how the DVD sales are going to turn out.
Plus in the nicest possible way, the US of A is not the only country in the world that counts, can you not please get that into your heads. International box office percentage is usually more than domestic.
By the way: Firefly 37 on UK DVD sales list two weeks ago, 22 last week, 14 today. Return to song refrain at beginning of post.
Off to see Serenity with reluctant husband now and in a happy mood. Planning to ply husband with drink and take shameless advantage to get him to sell it to the rest of his office on Monday. Also feeling a bit giddy and silly.
miranda | October 07, 11:13 CET
Let's prove them wrong. Everyone, if you can, go and see the movie again this weekend and drag some people there with you. I was planning on going tonight anyway but now it's a mission!
Firefly Flanatic | October 07, 11:14 CET
"Serenity" is a movie that, while not a box office hit, will sell well on DVD and will be remembered and watched and enjoyed years from now. Not many movies get that, you know? Not even some of the hits.
Don't worry about "the world discovering Joss." Folks as smart and wise as he always have another potential blockbuster brewing in the back of their brains. If you have an itch to see the movie again, go out and enjoy it. But don't despair over the lack of box office. Ten years from now, no one will remember how much money "Serenity" made or didn't make ... but a whole lot of people will still be watching it.
rbt | October 07, 11:15 CET
I for one optimistic about Serenity's long-term financial success, but the fact that Joss got to do it the way he wanted it is the BIGGEST victory here. Seriously, if he were forced to get different actors, make a clean-cut happy ending, get a "more evil" villain, etc, etc, I think we (and Joss) would all be VERY unhappy.
Ronald_SF | October 07, 11:27 CET
redfern | October 07, 11:27 CET
SoddingNancyTribe | October 07, 11:28 CET
I think Goners has the real potential to be something great, and so very mainstream. But still great. I hope I'm right..
gossi | October 07, 11:33 CET
IMForeman | October 07, 11:42 CET
pat32082 | October 07, 11:44 CET
Seriously, though, part of what makes Joss himself such a great guy to us is the personal stuff - coming to our defence, hanging out here (recently, not so much. Hmmm, where is he? Damn passwords!), the Australia meet and booze, and so on. Would he be able to do all these thing if he was going to be mobbed by thousands?
I want the masses to appreciate his work and I wish him all the success in the world so I guess I'm just being conflicted and confusing. Sorry...probably just need another cup of tea.
lone fashionable wolf | October 07, 11:44 CET
[ edited by risingwaves on 2008-06-02 01:57 ]
risingwaves | October 07, 11:57 CET
I hate caring this much about a movie. I'm so desperate, I'm pimping it to people I barely like talking to. I showed some coworkers one of the Euro posters that I have as my background, and I'm trying to explain the characters to them(This is the Han Solo type guy, etc), and one goes, "Oh. 'From the creator of Buffy and Angel'. That's why she likes it." I say, "Well, that's why I watched it, but I like it because it's good." Sadly, those two words(Buffy and Angel) put them off definitively. I guess that's my fault for choosing that poster, but it doesn't give me hope for how easily the general public is put off of something.
Rogue Slayer | October 07, 12:04 CET
[ edited by bobster on 2005-10-07 19:06 ]
bobster | October 07, 12:06 CET
The reason that people are so obsessed with the figures is because of something that Joss said which indicates that a sequel is more or less greenlighted if domestic box office gets over 50 million or world-wide is over 80. Domestic results then are sort of a double whammy, since they count toward both numbers.
rkayn | October 07, 12:19 CET
I believe that those who se Serenity will be impressed and may then give all three TV shows a chance. We've seen the sales of Firefly go up, have sales of Buffy and Angel gone up?
zz9 | October 07, 12:24 CET
Imo Joss should be proud of himself. He made a movie that will be around forever and probably become an underground classic and eventually a full-fledged ankowledged classic.
There are many many films that didn't generate huge revenues at the box office (It's a Wonderful Life spring to mind) that went on to become essential viewing for anyone who loves movies.
Reddygirl | October 07, 12:25 CET
chickenbird | October 07, 12:32 CET
RavenU | October 07, 12:39 CET
They don't promote Serenity this way in the U.S.
And on the subject of where the ads have been airing this week: Comedy Central, Smallville, Veronica Mars, Night Stalker, Jay Leno, David Letterman, Survivor. Those are the ones I know for certain.
@theonetruebix | October 07, 13:17 CET
Well they sound like good choices and I'm glad to hear it because I haven't seen a single one myself. While last week, regardless of my viewing patterns, I saw at least 4-6 a day. Still sounds a bit like they decided to cut back to me.
I'm certain Serenity will make money for Universal. It won't be a bomb or a flop or a failed project even if a sequel isn't greenlit. I am grateful and exceedingly happy it got made and it's an amazing triumphant story all by itself. But while comforting, all of that still only makes me crave that sequel even more!
EdDantes | October 07, 13:24 CET
No adverts appearing in newspapers, none on billboards, on on buses, and I've only seen one advert on TV.
I'm in Northern Ireland so I assume that we are under the UK marketing branch, but I haven't seen the kind of marketing that comes with practically every film, so I am a little worried.
Razor | October 07, 13:46 CET
Serenity keeps 3rd place above The Corpse Bride still...
The good: Serenity gains an audience, whilst A History of Violence and Into The Blue looses one. This is the first time this has happened with the movie. It gained.
gossi | October 07, 14:16 CET
bobothebrave | October 07, 14:32 CET
Wait... did gossi just post good news?! ;)
(Insert extra attention-calling to the wink here.)
@theonetruebix | October 07, 14:36 CET
It is great that it keeps 3rd though. Top 3, that's good. Right? See, I can do optimism...
Rogue Slayer | October 07, 14:37 CET
Simon | October 07, 14:41 CET
Slowly, but surely...we will dominate :)
MySerenity | October 07, 14:46 CET
The Dark Shape | October 07, 15:04 CET
Zena | October 07, 15:05 CET
In this, all I can do is go see the big damn movie.
But, unlike (the rather over-rated) democratic system, in this I can stuff the ballot! Stuff it to my hearts content! Stuff it til it.. erm.. squeezes out a sequel.
Bad Kitty | October 07, 15:12 CET
LittleMiss730 | October 07, 15:42 CET
*shrug*
@theonetruebix | October 07, 16:00 CET
FYI, Box Office Mojo disagrees, showing Wed/Thu gains for Violence and Blue, in addition to the gain for Serenity.
@theonetruebix | October 07, 16:03 CET
Just came back from seeing it again, and the people I brought loved it. None of them planned on seeing it originally and none of them had seen any Firefly. The theater was smaller than the one last Friday. There were a good 25 or so people there, including our 6. Not too bad for a Friday matinee, I'd think.
[ edited by rkayn on 2005-10-07 23:23 ]
rkayn | October 07, 16:20 CET
@theonetruebix | October 07, 16:55 CET
I remember when I went to see Revenge of the Sith and they showed the teaser trailer for Serenity people actually laughed and make some odd comments when "From the Creator of Buffy and Angel" appeared on screen. I really wish Universal hadn't done that. That was a HUGE fanbase they could've tapped into and they probably turned away more people than they interested based solely on the fact that there's a heavy bias against anything Buffy out in the world. Just mention the name of the show and watch people's eyes roll or simply glaze over. It's not a strong selling point.
None of the TV advertisements to my knowledge have mentioned it, but it's been mentioned in print ads and other TV clips (behind the scenes material). It's also mentioned on the movie site.
I'm not saying Serenity didn't do well because of the Buffy connection, but I firmly believe there's a segment of the population that didn't give it a chance because of the connection. In fact, I know a few of these people personally. I'm still trying to convince them to go see this movie. If they see it, it'll probably be on DVD where they can turn it off if they want to. That's probably where most of the world is going to discover Serenity.
The 'verse never should have left TV in the first place.
RogueScribner | October 07, 16:56 CET
Then they must be targeted to certain regions, because none of the print ads I've seen here in Portland have ever mentioned Buffy or Angel.
@theonetruebix | October 07, 17:05 CET
In the UK, virtually every TV spot mentions "From the Creator of Buffy" in voiceover. The international trailer proudly mentions it. The posters all mention it. The tube adverts mention it. The newspaper adverts mention it.
And you know what? I just got back from a showing in Liverpool, and it was packed out. Nearly all 18-24 demographic. Heavy female. Lots of students by the looks of it. Lots of laughs. Good buzz on the way out.
gossi | October 07, 17:20 CET
barest_smidgen | October 07, 17:37 CET
Well, over the whole week it's still nr 2. That's fairly good. I have no idea whatsoever what the new movies coming out this weekend are going to do. None of them look even slightly good to me but they have names, or are 'family oriented' (a word that just starts to leave a bad taste in my mouth the last few years) so they'll probably still do well. Urgn.. Well, we're going another couple of times this weekend. Not much else we can do.
EdDantes | October 07, 18:43 CET
para | October 07, 19:31 CET
Drifter | October 08, 02:05 CET