Box Office Mojo's weekend estimate is now out. They are expecting a large drop - Firefly&Serenity

Whose ready to prove them wrong?

This is discouraging to say the least. But there is till the weekend to go.

I just saw it again last night. 10:40 showing and there were only four other people besides the two I was with. It was a much quieter crowd. I still clapped and whooped at the end, even though my friend laughed at me. Hey, gotta show my Browncoat pride!

electricspacegirl | October 07, 07:54 CET

4.8 is probably a little low (and I think they overestimate Two For the Money), but expecting anything above 5th place is probably going to result in disappointment. Hope, but don't expect.

MattM | October 07, 07:54 CET

Well, their predictions were wrong a week ago (by 51%, or $5 millions). So I am expecting them to be wrong again (just in the opposite direction).

Lince | October 07, 07:57 CET

That's not actually a HUGE drop, that would be a 47% drop which is actually a little less than most flicks if I'm not mistaken.

zeitgeist | October 07, 07:57 CET

With a standard movie drop off rate, that's about right. It's not a particularly insightful forecast, it's just doing the average maths.

gossi | October 07, 08:00 CET

Industry logic usually claims 40% dropoff as normal, though that runs a little higher for scifi.

MattM | October 07, 08:21 CET

Alledgedly (I don't know if this is true or not), with the drop off from Friday to Saturday, that usually indicates a 50% drop the following weekend. Like I say, I don't know if thats true or not.

Well, whatever the case, here's hoping people go and see it this weekend.

gossi | October 07, 08:25 CET

I'll be very surprised if SERENITY cracks $6 million this weekend. I hope it has legs, but I'm not counting on it.

RogueScribner | October 07, 08:40 CET

This kind of predicted drop is apparently normal. Thus I don't see the need for the melodramatic "HUGE drop" (and all that it implies) in the title post. A drop of this magnitude on the second weekend is n-o-r-m-a-l. It does not mean that Serenity has somehow been a tragic failure and we Joss/Serenity/Firefly fans should start wearing black ribbons. Honestly, all the play-by-play hand-wringing over Serenity's box office take is getting to be a bit overmuch, even if it comes from an understandable place of worry. That's my opinion, anyway. Although maybe it's my concern over my blood pressure talking. :)

phlebotinin | October 07, 08:43 CET

Last weekend I got four people to see it with me on opening night. Tomorrow I'll get two people to see it with me. Let's see ... 5-3 ... 2. 2 /5 * 100% ... YE GODS, IT IS A 40% DROPOFF! Are they watching me?!

Ocular | October 07, 09:04 CET

Well I noticed Haken said the following on the front page of fireflyfans.net:

A source informs me that tickets sales this weekend (10/7-10/9) will determine the fate of the sequel.

Simon | October 07, 09:07 CET

This kind of predicted drop is apparently normal.

Yes, but films can buck the trend. And with a strong per-screen gross the first weekend and - hopefully - strong word-of-mouth the film could resist the typical 40% drop of most films.

If it only manages 4.8 this weekend, then the marketing and the good crits and the word-of-mouth hasn't worked. Still doesn't say anything for the quality of the film, but does mean we need to hope it finds an audience on DVD.

crossoverman | October 07, 09:07 CET

Serenity is an excellent film, in these factors:

- You can call it critically acclaimed. 81% of reviews tracked by Rotten Tomatoes are positive.

- It was delivered on time.

- On budget.

- Only one scene reshoot (or rather, additional pick up).

- It will make it's money back long term.

- The fan base tended to love it (it measures around 90-95% positive feedback).

- The exit polls suggest good feedback from those who actually went to see it.

In terms of 'franchise' (I can see why Mary Parent doesn't use the word now...), I don't know. It hasn't blown away the box office like some people were optimistically predicting.

It's done well. It's been critically excellent received. It's made waves online, having the most amount of online buzz since... forever probably. Maybe it hasn't appealed to the unwashed masses. But that shouldn't distract from the acheivements.

gossi | October 07, 09:15 CET

4.8 isn't normal, and good films usually drop less than 40% and that is over 50%. I hope that Serenity will come in at around 6-7 million, but there are a lot of new releases and History of Violence has kind of become the "buzz" movie. It would also be a disappointment if Corpse Bride comes in ahead of us, if Serenity is going to have legs it needs to come in ahead Burton's latest.

rockchalkwatcher | October 07, 09:20 CET

Well, with a disappointing opening, and a high drop off expected, I'm not hopeful for more from the 'verse. I'm very happy we had this, but like everyone, I was hoping for more.
And I was really hoping for more ads about it. Last week, I saw Serenity trailers on tv all the time. Now I've seen one all week, and only heard of one per night on network tv. Has Uni really dumped this already? I just see so much they could be capitalizing on that they're neglecting. I think if Serenity really does poor business this weekend, Uni should bear some of the guilt.

Rogue Slayer | October 07, 09:20 CET

- Only one scene reshoot (or rather, additional pick up).

Which scene and why?

Storyteller | October 07, 09:23 CET

I believe it is the

"Do you know your part in all this?"

"Do You?".

Andy Dufresne | October 07, 09:31 CET

Rogue Slayer, some people are reporting constant adverts for the movie on TV. I'm pretty sure they've moved the target audience - they previously went after Sci-Fi/genre heavy, and quite honestly? It didn't work methinks. The numbers just didn't turn up.

One thing I'll say about the advertising on target focus is that it's been very genre specific, almost too much on the fan audience. Of course, maybe I've just got a jaded perception of things.

The reality is Universal could have done far worse to the movie - a lot of studioes just dump advertising completely as soon as a movie hits theatres.

The reality is, Universal's "Doom" is coming very very soon. That's going to really piss fans off. Because they're going to plaster it everywhere very soon, in Serenity's place. What is the movie like? Uhm. Let's just say it doesn't share Serenity's qualities, and the reviews will be funny. Will it do well? Probably. Aliens, guns, The Rock.

gossi | October 07, 09:31 CET

I think there is a danger here of believing our worst fears and assuming that Serenity isn't going to do as well as we all hope, even though the signs are suggesting otherwise. Quite honestly i've been astounded by the amount of positive press and praise the movie has been getting from so many varied, not to mention many highly respected, sources. There doesn't seem to be a magazine on the shelves at the moment that isn't heaping praise on this film, everything from the obvious examples of SFX and Dreamwatch to the more unlikely mags such as Kerrang and Now. I've certainly read enough five star reviews to think that Serenity may well do a hell of a lot better than it is expected to do. I'll even stick my neck out and say that it should do well enough to guarantee itself a sequel or two. Well, i can hope anyway! :)

WhedonTrivia | October 07, 09:36 CET

We need Oprah. Apparently on her show yesterday, she devoted the hour to the film “Crash”, about race relations in LA and had some of the cast on the show to talk about it. I vaguely remember the movie, don’t recall what the critics thought or what the box office was. Anyway, there’s Oprah telling people they HAVE to see this film, which I think opened in the spring and is long gone from theaters. I’m not sure if she meant when the DVD comes out or she thought, in her all-powerful mindset, that she could get it re-released or something and I’m sure her proclamation was met with the eardrum piercing screams of her devoted minions. Did I say minions? I meant studio audience. The point is, I don’t think all the marketing should have relied so heavily on the fans and Internet to get the word out and on TV ads that seemed to be few and far between. I know the cast aren’t considered “stars” who can open a movie, but it would have been nice to see some of them on talk shows being their lovely and charming selves trying to sell this baby.

I actually couldn’t believe it (in a good way) when Serenity opened in second place when I was fearing that it might make its first appearance in something like seventh or worse. I want it to be successful for Joss’s sake and for everyone that had some hand in getting it made, but also for the movie going public’s sake. People that seem all to willing to accept the same old safe comforting macaroni and cheese movies. I also want Serenity to be seen and make money because it’s good and it deserves to, not merely to ensure any sequels. I feel so lucky that we have it at all since “this movie should not exist” and I feel selfish when I’m trying to see into the future instead of appreciating what’s here and now.
It’s a success no matter what the box office says in the end.

bloodflowers | October 07, 09:40 CET

Vampire, the problem is this: positive press doesn't always make people go. "Cinderalla Man" got so much positive press it is unreal - the critics LOVED it on the whole. Did anybody go and see it? Not really, it did badly, despite having two Oscar winners as the cast, an an oscar winning director, and being absolutely critically acclaimed.

It's not all doom (excuse the pun) and gloom, though. Serenity, like I say, will break even. The studio liked it. Hopefully DVD sales will be through the roof.

I did everything I possibly could to get people to go see this. I really mean that. I really hope they go.

gossi | October 07, 09:41 CET

So they think they're gonna waltz through Serenity Valley, and we will choke them with those words. We will do the imp... no, this has been done to death...

I still think a good turnout is attainable here though. If we keep doing our bit, we can maybe keep the weekend drop to 20-25%. Mayhaps we'll get to see Devin eat his words after all.

IMForeman | October 07, 09:44 CET

If Doom does better than Serenity, I shall.....be very, very upset. At least Doom isn't opening for another week, I think.

I like gossi's, bloodflower's and vampire dan's general take on Serenity's fate: we got our BDM and it got largely glowing reviews. Two major victories right there. The mainstream press "got" Serenity! Fabulous. And we got our BDM. If the general public doesn't go to see it, then that's that.

Out of curiosity, how did the original Star Wars do in its first few weeks? It was a little movie that came out of nowhere, I know that. How long did it take to do very well?

phlebotinin | October 07, 09:44 CET

Best thing that could have happened is having the critics hate it, because people tend to see it then just to see what was so bad. Kinda the same reason people rubber-neck at traffic accident. We are a morbid society, if it's bad we want to see it immediately, if it's good we can wait a while.

RavenU | October 07, 09:46 CET

I don't think Universal shares the blame in a "disappointing" opening, I don't think anyone does. The movie is great, better advertising than I expected, everything else has been great. Universal isn't going to spend millions on ads after the first weekend though for returns of only a couple hundred thousand. I also doubt that Doom will get better treatment, the movie will be bad, it will get bad reviews, and The Rock is not a big box office draw.... otherwise he would get better offers than this crap. I still think that the biggest hurt to the box office was History of Violence, it is the small film getting the lingering mainstream acclaim we were hoping for. While Serenity is still King on many parts of the internet, HoV has become the first of the "oscar" movies that start to pop up this time of year.

rockchalkwatcher | October 07, 09:50 CET

I have hopes that this weekend will go well - I really do. I would love to see a sequel. We'll be doing our part - we're taking just as many people THIS weekend as we did LAST weekend.

But in the end, if the film comes out critically hailed and breaks even at the BO, I just keep going back to "Nothing like a major motion picture to help you get over having your tv show cancelled."

GrrrAargh | October 07, 09:57 CET

Indeed, A History of Violence has done extremely well for itself. And all power to the people who worked on that, they've done great.

I really can imagine "Doom" opening big. A certain movie studio is very, very hot on it.

I've said it before, I'll say it again: in a world where American Idol is the number 1 TV show in America, and Adam Sandler is a movie star... anything is possible with the publics taste.

[ edited by gossi on 2005-10-07 17:00 ]

gossi | October 07, 09:59 CET

Off topic, but bloodflowers mentioned Crash, so I want to give it a plug. It was recently released on DVD and is excellent.

looking | October 07, 10:01 CET

some people are reporting constant adverts for the movie on TV. I'm pretty sure they've moved the target audience -

I was wondering about that becaues I didn't see a single one this week on the same channels that showed them all the time last week. Sci FI, Adult Swim, Spike TV, Fox, now zippo.

I heard there was one on WB during Smallville, but does anyone know what other channels they have been on? 'Cause really I can't shake that feeling that this campaign was dumped like a ton of bricks to cut some losses right when it mattered the most! And no I'm not trying to play the blame game but so far everything had been done right and I could accept it if things didn't work out.

But now I see a crap follow-up campaign when it could've made the most difference.

EdDantes | October 07, 10:01 CET

I've seen several ads that proclaimed the Ebert & Roeper quotes and the Boston Globe quotes, etc. Could we please have a little less doom & gloom? We are too pretty to die, people :) And non-genre drop-off is typically 40-50 while genre dropoff is typically 50-60 from what I've seen.

[ edited by zeitgeist on 2005-10-07 17:08 ]

zeitgeist | October 07, 10:08 CET

I saw the ads during a.) Veronica Mars, b.) Smallville and c.) Family Guy.

BTW, on Blaming Universal... I don't think that's a good. Universal paid for our BDM, they did market the BDM (which is an admittedly hard film to market) and more important, they let Joss do it his way. I think a big round of applause is warranted for 'Versal.

IMForeman | October 07, 10:27 CET

I think the only aspect in which the 'Versal failed was not booking Nathan or the whole cast to be on shows like Ellen, Oprah, etc...

MySerenity | October 07, 10:41 CET

You would have thought they would have gotten Nathan and Adam on the Tonight Show since it is owned by Universal or even Conan. :P

RavenU | October 07, 10:43 CET

BTW, on Blaming Universal... I don't think that's a good. Universal paid for our BDM, they did market the BDM (which is an admittedly hard film to market) and more important, they let Joss do it his way. I think a big round of applause is warranted for 'Versal.

Yes, we owe them a lot. A ton. Would have never been made without them. But I wouldn't thank a doctor who brought my child into the world only to let it die a week later for lack of trying. Yeah, that's extreme and melodramatic, but I'm feeling extreme and melodramatic right now. I don't want this to be a failed movie based on a failed tv show, ya know? I don't want this to just be a love letter to Firefly fans, I want it be how the world 'discovers' Joss. And since I'm not seeing ads where I saw them last week, and that's obviously Uni's doing, I feel they are slightly responsible if it doesn't do well this weekend. Some folks see them constantly, and that's great. I don't know why they pulled them out of LA-maybe it's doing well here, maybe it's a lost cause here, I don't know.
And yes, word of mouth will be responsible too. And concept salability. And competing movies. There are a lot of factors, I don't feel Uni will be solely to blame, but they'll have a part that they didn't hold up--for whatever reason which I'm not judging.

I hope more than anything that this weekend bucks predictions and counters my pessimism(that feels like realism right now). I'm going to see it twice more. My $20 won't mean much, but now I'm going more to see the audience reactions. And to see how many butts are in seats. I guess I'm just watching the life-support monitor at this point. Praying for a miracle. Because even slightly beating expectations isn't going to do much. We really need *some*thing big to happen.

Rogue Slayer | October 07, 10:51 CET

Nathan, Joss and Summer can't really do anything like that as they're over here in Europe doing stuff (I think they're in Prague at the moment).

There probably are reasons for lack of appearances on shows. Certainly, with things like Oprah, you just aren't going to get them on that. They go for guests who will make a big draw audience wise, the most famous person you have in Serenity was the pirate from Dodgeball, or the drug addict gay german from 28 Days...

gossi | October 07, 10:52 CET

If you can besides dragging people to a showing, buy a seat to every showing for yourself whether you can make it to every showing or not. Perhaps then we can bring in another 10 or close to it.

RavenU | October 07, 10:55 CET

My wife and I saw it by ourselves on Friday. We took 3 with us to see it on Wednesday. Today we're going again with 4 of our employees.

I think the fans are distorting the numbers too much for any "normal" distribution pattern to hold true. That's why Serenity suffered a drop after it's Friday opening, unlike all the other top movies. This weekend is going to show what effect word of mouth has had. I think that big fans will likely go again so I strongly doubt that it will drop over 50%.

BTW, at my local theater at least, Corpse Bride is down to one screen while Serenity still has two.

Also, A History of Violence is STILL strictly reporting estimates instead of actuals. What's up with that? It's still not even showing in my area, and BOM isn't showing any increase in screens. Strange that a movie doing as well per screen as is being reported isn't increasing it's coverage.

rkayn | October 07, 11:06 CET

Sings at the top of her voice ‘DVD sales, DVD sales, DVD sales’.

Please, please stop the gloom. I may be stupid and naïve, but why would a studio make any decisions about sequels before they have even gotten to the part where they shovel cash into the vault by the truckload?

Decisions like that are way down the line IMHO and we all know how the DVD sales are going to turn out.

Plus in the nicest possible way, the US of A is not the only country in the world that counts, can you not please get that into your heads. International box office percentage is usually more than domestic.

By the way: Firefly 37 on UK DVD sales list two weeks ago, 22 last week, 14 today. Return to song refrain at beginning of post.

Off to see Serenity with reluctant husband now and in a happy mood. Planning to ply husband with drink and take shameless advantage to get him to sell it to the rest of his office on Monday. Also feeling a bit giddy and silly.

miranda | October 07, 11:13 CET

People - it ain't over til the fat lady sings and I haven't uttered a sound yet!!!

Let's prove them wrong. Everyone, if you can, go and see the movie again this weekend and drag some people there with you. I was planning on going tonight anyway but now it's a mission!

Firefly Flanatic | October 07, 11:14 CET

I've said all this before, but maybe it bears repeating. There's no need for gloom and doom and breaking the bank with a mass purchasing of tickets nobody is gonna use. Be thankful that we got ONE "Firefly" movie, which is a minor miracle in itself. Be thankful that said move turned out great and gave the fans a fabulous sense of closure we were denied when the series was cancelled.

"Serenity" is a movie that, while not a box office hit, will sell well on DVD and will be remembered and watched and enjoyed years from now. Not many movies get that, you know? Not even some of the hits.

Don't worry about "the world discovering Joss." Folks as smart and wise as he always have another potential blockbuster brewing in the back of their brains. If you have an itch to see the movie again, go out and enjoy it. But don't despair over the lack of box office. Ten years from now, no one will remember how much money "Serenity" made or didn't make ... but a whole lot of people will still be watching it.

rbt | October 07, 11:15 CET

... they let Joss do it his way.

I for one optimistic about Serenity's long-term financial success, but the fact that Joss got to do it the way he wanted it is the BIGGEST victory here. Seriously, if he were forced to get different actors, make a clean-cut happy ending, get a "more evil" villain, etc, etc, I think we (and Joss) would all be VERY unhappy.

Ronald_SF | October 07, 11:27 CET

Considering all the rave reviews from critics, I expect "Serenity" will show up on some top 10 lists for 2005. This bodes well for both rentals and DVD sales. I often base my rentals on these lists and have discovered great films from them - films that I somehow missed when they arrived in theatres. If a ton of DVDs are sold, that creates both incentive & hype for S2.

redfern | October 07, 11:27 CET

Changed the link title, as per many of the comments above, from "HUGE" to "large." Because now is not the time for panic.

SoddingNancyTribe | October 07, 11:28 CET

Indeed, the world discovering joss, quite frankly, is up to joss. Don't worry about him, I think you'll find he's in his groove right now.

I think Goners has the real potential to be something great, and so very mainstream. But still great. I hope I'm right..

gossi | October 07, 11:33 CET

I don't think there's any problem with Joss getting really known... he's got this project called Wonder Woman coming...

IMForeman | October 07, 11:42 CET

I'm optimistic, too. And yes, I do want sequels. Partly because I'm not ready to say goodbye to these stories, but mostly because Joss and the cast want them. They're not done yet, and if they don't get a chance to do them, that'll be a shame.

pat32082 | October 07, 11:44 CET

I'm in two minds about the world discovering Joss. It would be good for him, and good for the world, so here's where I turn selfish: What about me?
Seriously, though, part of what makes Joss himself such a great guy to us is the personal stuff - coming to our defence, hanging out here (recently, not so much. Hmmm, where is he? Damn passwords!), the Australia meet and booze, and so on. Would he be able to do all these thing if he was going to be mobbed by thousands?
I want the masses to appreciate his work and I wish him all the success in the world so I guess I'm just being conflicted and confusing. Sorry...probably just need another cup of tea.

lone fashionable wolf | October 07, 11:44 CET

[ edited by risingwaves on 2008-06-02 01:57 ]

risingwaves | October 07, 11:57 CET

I prefer doom and gloom right now. If I'm wrong, wow I'll be happy! If I'm right, I won't be as crushed, because I'm already there. It's the logic of pessimism.

I hate caring this much about a movie. I'm so desperate, I'm pimping it to people I barely like talking to. I showed some coworkers one of the Euro posters that I have as my background, and I'm trying to explain the characters to them(This is the Han Solo type guy, etc), and one goes, "Oh. 'From the creator of Buffy and Angel'. That's why she likes it." I say, "Well, that's why I watched it, but I like it because it's good." Sadly, those two words(Buffy and Angel) put them off definitively. I guess that's my fault for choosing that poster, but it doesn't give me hope for how easily the general public is put off of something.

Rogue Slayer | October 07, 12:04 CET

I'm almost certain they'll be a sequel, eventually -- the DVD sales, plus Joss's probable future success should ensure it. The quesion is how quickly and at what budget.

[ edited by bobster on 2005-10-07 19:06 ]

bobster | October 07, 12:06 CET

Miranda - I posted a link to the Australian box office numbers for last weekend, but it was deleted for some reason.

The reason that people are so obsessed with the figures is because of something that Joss said which indicates that a sequel is more or less greenlighted if domestic box office gets over 50 million or world-wide is over 80. Domestic results then are sort of a double whammy, since they count toward both numbers.

rkayn | October 07, 12:19 CET

I wonder how much the "From the creator of Buffy and Angel" has helped or hurt the box office? Those people who loved Buffy may well have already known about Serenity while those that didn't like Buffy or Angel, or never gave it a chance, will be put off by it. Like it or not many people still think of Buffy as "a silly kids show" and may assume our BDM is not worth seeing.

I believe that those who se Serenity will be impressed and may then give all three TV shows a chance. We've seen the sales of Firefly go up, have sales of Buffy and Angel gone up?

zz9 | October 07, 12:24 CET

I had already decided to be happy if it remained in the top 10. After all, it is in many fewer theatres and this weekend several high-profile movies are opening.

Imo Joss should be proud of himself. He made a movie that will be around forever and probably become an underground classic and eventually a full-fledged ankowledged classic.

There are many many films that didn't generate huge revenues at the box office (It's a Wonderful Life spring to mind) that went on to become essential viewing for anyone who loves movies.

Reddygirl | October 07, 12:25 CET

Wow, Serenity has a gain this week of exactly one theater. That's kinda funny. I'm glad they haven't dropped any. I wonder where that one lucky new theater is located? How do they even determine these things?

chickenbird | October 07, 12:32 CET

Another thing that may work to the movies favor is the wheather, I know it's a factor where I live if the wheather is nice no one goes to the movies but if it is raining theatre attendance increases. Last weekend was perfect wheather, however, this weekend it is suppose to rain everyday. Just trying to throw some posative ideas out there.

RavenU | October 07, 12:39 CET

I wonder how much the "From the creator of Buffy and Angel" has helped or hurt the box office?

They don't promote Serenity this way in the U.S.

And on the subject of where the ads have been airing this week: Comedy Central, Smallville, Veronica Mars, Night Stalker, Jay Leno, David Letterman, Survivor. Those are the ones I know for certain.

@theonetruebix | October 07, 13:17 CET

And on the subject of where the ads have been airing this week: Comedy Central, Smallville, Veronica Mars, Night Stalker, Jay Leno, David Letterman, Survivor. Those are the ones I know for certain.

Well they sound like good choices and I'm glad to hear it because I haven't seen a single one myself. While last week, regardless of my viewing patterns, I saw at least 4-6 a day. Still sounds a bit like they decided to cut back to me.

I'm certain Serenity will make money for Universal. It won't be a bomb or a flop or a failed project even if a sequel isn't greenlit. I am grateful and exceedingly happy it got made and it's an amazing triumphant story all by itself. But while comforting, all of that still only makes me crave that sequel even more!

EdDantes | October 07, 13:24 CET

Personally I have seen very little marketing here, and I don't think that Serenity will perform well here for that simple reason. There are about three or four posters in the cinema I usually go to, but there has been practically nothing apart from that.

No adverts appearing in newspapers, none on billboards, on on buses, and I've only seen one advert on TV.

I'm in Northern Ireland so I assume that we are under the UK marketing branch, but I haven't seen the kind of marketing that comes with practically every film, so I am a little worried.

Razor | October 07, 13:46 CET

Thursdays figures.

Serenity keeps 3rd place above The Corpse Bride still...

The good: Serenity gains an audience, whilst A History of Violence and Into The Blue looses one. This is the first time this has happened with the movie. It gained.

gossi | October 07, 14:16 CET

Well, fingers crossed. I'm continuing the gentle harassing of friends and family to go see the film ...

bobothebrave | October 07, 14:32 CET

The good: Serenity gains an audience, whilst A History of Violence and Into The Blue looses one. This is the first time this has happened with the movie. It gained.

Wait... did gossi just post good news?! ;)

(Insert extra attention-calling to the wink here.)

@theonetruebix | October 07, 14:36 CET

Gossi, am I reading that right? ITB is making more per screen than Serenity? (No, I'm not looking for the negative, I'm just wondering if I'm reading it correctly)

It is great that it keeps 3rd though. Top 3, that's good. Right? See, I can do optimism...

Rogue Slayer | October 07, 14:37 CET

Wow one extra theater. For some reason, I would like to know where it is.

Simon | October 07, 14:41 CET

"Wow, Serenity has a gain this week of exactly one theater."

Slowly, but surely...we will dominate :)

MySerenity | October 07, 14:46 CET

Anybody *expecting* Serenity to top $5 million this weekend is going to be disappointed. It's a fanbase-heavy sci-fi film. A 60% drop would be considered NORMAL. We should consider ourselves lucky if it tops $4.5 million.

The Dark Shape | October 07, 15:04 CET

There is a new theater playing Serenity in Seattle. There are several more in the surrounding area but now there are two theaters playing it in the city. I was hoping it was part of a bigger trend but I guess not....yet. I am still hopeful. I for one will be bringing more people this weekend than I did last weekend and some of the other theaters in the area have added more showings. It isn't over yet :)

Zena | October 07, 15:05 CET

In an election, all one can do is vote.

In this, all I can do is go see the big damn movie.

But, unlike (the rather over-rated) democratic system, in this I can stuff the ballot! Stuff it to my hearts content! Stuff it til it.. erm.. squeezes out a sequel.

Bad Kitty | October 07, 15:12 CET

theonetruebix - You said they don't promote Serenity as the brainchild "From the creator of Buffy and Angel," but that's not true. I've seen several promos that flash that on the screen, and maybe even some print ads, if I remember correctly. So they're definitely banking on Buffy/Angel recognition as a good thing.

LittleMiss730 | October 07, 15:42 CET

I haven't seen a single print or TV spot here that mentions Buffy or Angel. The original pair of TV ads didn't say it; the "screening buzz" TV ad didn't say it; the review-quoting TV ad doesn't say it.

*shrug*

@theonetruebix | October 07, 16:00 CET

The good: Serenity gains an audience, whilst A History of Violence and Into The Blue looses one. This is the first time this has happened with the movie. It gained.

FYI, Box Office Mojo disagrees, showing Wed/Thu gains for Violence and Blue, in addition to the gain for Serenity.

@theonetruebix | October 07, 16:03 CET

Look at Monday's figures. When they first came out on Box Office Mojo, they showed A History of Violence at #2 above Serenity. Now it turns out that Serenity should have been #2 (though we're still just talking "estimates" for AHoV).

Just came back from seeing it again, and the people I brought loved it. None of them planned on seeing it originally and none of them had seen any Firefly. The theater was smaller than the one last Friday. There were a good 25 or so people there, including our 6. Not too bad for a Friday matinee, I'd think.

[ edited by rkayn on 2005-10-07 23:23 ]

rkayn | October 07, 16:20 CET

Now BOM has their weekly chart up, showing the first full week of Serenity -- Sep 30 through Oct 6. For that period, Serenity does come in second overall for the week, with $12,668,785 to Flightplan's $19,045,930.

@theonetruebix | October 07, 16:55 CET

and one goes, "Oh. 'From the creator of Buffy and Angel'. That's why she likes it." I say, "Well, that's why I watched it, but I like it because it's good." Sadly, those two words(Buffy and Angel) put them off definitively. I guess that's my fault for choosing that poster, but it doesn't give me hope for how easily the general public is put off of something.

I remember when I went to see Revenge of the Sith and they showed the teaser trailer for Serenity people actually laughed and make some odd comments when "From the Creator of Buffy and Angel" appeared on screen. I really wish Universal hadn't done that. That was a HUGE fanbase they could've tapped into and they probably turned away more people than they interested based solely on the fact that there's a heavy bias against anything Buffy out in the world. Just mention the name of the show and watch people's eyes roll or simply glaze over. It's not a strong selling point.

None of the TV advertisements to my knowledge have mentioned it, but it's been mentioned in print ads and other TV clips (behind the scenes material). It's also mentioned on the movie site.

I'm not saying Serenity didn't do well because of the Buffy connection, but I firmly believe there's a segment of the population that didn't give it a chance because of the connection. In fact, I know a few of these people personally. I'm still trying to convince them to go see this movie. If they see it, it'll probably be on DVD where they can turn it off if they want to. That's probably where most of the world is going to discover Serenity.

The 'verse never should have left TV in the first place.

RogueScribner | October 07, 16:56 CET

None of the TV advertisements to my knowledge have mentioned it, but it's been mentioned in print ads...

Then they must be targeted to certain regions, because none of the print ads I've seen here in Portland have ever mentioned Buffy or Angel.

@theonetruebix | October 07, 17:05 CET

People are talking across nations remember...

In the UK, virtually every TV spot mentions "From the Creator of Buffy" in voiceover. The international trailer proudly mentions it. The posters all mention it. The tube adverts mention it. The newspaper adverts mention it.

And you know what? I just got back from a showing in Liverpool, and it was packed out. Nearly all 18-24 demographic. Heavy female. Lots of students by the looks of it. Lots of laughs. Good buzz on the way out.

gossi | October 07, 17:20 CET

Was in my corner deli in Manhattan today and heard a 60-second radio spot that played up the "new sci-fi franchise" angle and was nothing but wildly enthusiastic critic quotes and interviews of people coming out of the theatre. I've never heard a spot with such overwhelming raves. Sure hope it helps. (Sometimes, when you listen real close to these type of spots, they're often tarting up luke-warm reviews with a rapid-fire, overly-excited voiceover, hoping you won't notice that the quotes are weak with praise.) Sure hope it helps. Miserable and wet in NY today, and it is supposed to rain buckets up and down the east coast all weekend. That could be good news for the overall low theatre turnout of late...

barest_smidgen | October 07, 17:37 CET

It's true, the Buffy mention may work in other countries but in the US it turns 'mainstream' people off. I know Joss wanted to make a deliberate statement with the title, and he has, but it has sure cost him some chunks of audience throughout the years.

Well, over the whole week it's still nr 2. That's fairly good. I have no idea whatsoever what the new movies coming out this weekend are going to do. None of them look even slightly good to me but they have names, or are 'family oriented' (a word that just starts to leave a bad taste in my mouth the last few years) so they'll probably still do well. Urgn.. Well, we're going another couple of times this weekend. Not much else we can do.

EdDantes | October 07, 18:43 CET

It's great that Serenity was advertised during Veronica Mars and the ad reached it's 2 million and something viewers. But airing it during Lost and reaching its 20 million and something viewers would have been greater.

para | October 07, 19:31 CET

Universal Canada is using the same newsprint ads it used last week. The ads note how summer pre-release screenings were sold out in hours and a new sci-fi chapter was begun. All four dailies had the same black and white ads ads. I am surprised they didn't revise them to add the positive quotes. Overall, no colour and lack of initiative leave me a little disappointed. Haven't seen any TV ads because I haven't see any TV.

Drifter | October 08, 02:05 CET

October 07 2005