Whedonesque : Comments on 8408 : Serenity's second Friday Box Office performance.

This really isn't a bad drop. It has an outside shot of falling under 50% for the weekend, which is almost unheard of for a sci-fi film.

The Dark Shape | October 08, 20:32 CET

Whoa. 9th place. Kinda depressing.

Apocalypse | October 08, 20:34 CET

Looks pretty bad to me.

Paul_Rocks | October 08, 20:34 CET

Are these true estimates, or are they HSX's figures? I don't think the estimates are out yet, but could be wrong.

gossi | October 08, 20:37 CET

ah shit.

im taking 8 people to see it tonite......where are the browncoats???!!

ChosenOne5376 | October 08, 20:37 CET

Who are these guys and how accurate are they?

RavenU | October 08, 20:38 CET

I don't know how to interpret this. How to interweave The Dark Shape's interpretation with that of Apocalypse's and Paul_Rocks?

I saw it last night in a theater that was 2/3 full. And yes, WHERE are the Browncoats? There were hardly any obvious Browncoats in the theater last night. Maybe one or two. This is just my experience of course, but it belies the "scarily devoted Browncoats" theory circling the web. There are several Whedon groups in my area. Where were their members last night?

[ edited by phlebotinin on 2005-10-08 18:41 ]

phlebotinin | October 08, 20:38 CET

Seriously, I warned everybody not to have high expectations. A 59% drop is really, really good -- and with as many new openers as there were, chart position doesn't matter at all. By comparison, Star Trek: Nemesis made $1.21 million its second Friday, an 85% drop from its first Friday.

Generally, if numbers come out of HSX (where quite a few people work in the industry), they're true -- or very, very close.

[ edited by The Dark Shape on 2005-10-08 18:39 ]

[ edited by The Dark Shape on 2005-10-08 18:40 ]

The Dark Shape | October 08, 20:39 CET

They do appear to be just HSX's figures so I just hope the're wrong...

Paul_Rocks | October 08, 20:39 CET

lol Star Trek Nemesis sucked, even trekkies didnt like it.

This is Serenity........we've anticipated this movie since forever and kinda vowed to give ourselves a sequel.

but i guess below 50 % would be impressive. below 40 would be awesome.

ChosenOne5376 | October 08, 20:41 CET

By comparison, Star Trek: Nemesis made $1.21 million its second Friday, an 85% drop from its first Friday.

Yeah and Nemesis was a failure that pretty much killed the Star Trek movie franchise, not really what we want to be compared to, even favourably.

Paul_Rocks | October 08, 20:42 CET

phlebotnin, things are definetely bittersweet today. The fantastic U.K. Box Office earlier, and then this which aint so good. I think I'm going to focus on the U.K one for tonight.

Apocalypse | October 08, 20:42 CET

Nemesis was a fanboy-heavy sci-fi flick. It's a pretty direct comparison.

The Dark Shape | October 08, 20:42 CET

Indeed, these figures are roughly the projected ones if they are true.

But it's still bad. This will disappear from theatres. Quickly.

It's a real shame. Still, international markets may just come to the rescue if the UK model is repeated elsewhere.

gossi | October 08, 20:47 CET

The question asked earlier remains valid...where are the Browncoats? I went again last night...10 people there counting me! I spoke with eight of them...not a Browncoat among them!

Calledon | October 08, 20:48 CET

Is it really asking all that much for every browncoat to buy at least one Serenity ticket this weekend, I mean, how much does one cost, between $5-10. If we all bought just one ticket we'd be making much more than this, you don't even have to see the film if you don't fancy watching it again so soon (can't imagine why), just give your ticket to one person out of a group in the streets in the hopes he'll decide to use it and the people with him will tag along too, consider it your $5 contribution toward a sequel. Hope it picks up today.

Ghost Spike | October 08, 20:48 CET

i know friday is traditional the stronger day with box office numbers, but i think serenity's numbers will pull through better today simply because its a movie that already came out. Last night was a chance for those new movies to get their big audiences, I think Serenity will find a bit more people today, and did i mention im taking 8 people, lol.

Everyone, please call your friends and tell them to go see it again and if you have no friends please stand outside and tell people to go see it.

ChosenOne5376 | October 08, 20:50 CET

The fact with the browncoat thing is, as I keep saying over and over: there really aren't THAT many 'hard core' fans. Yes, there's a lot, but not as many as people may make out. Those LiveJournal bloggers? They'll go once and enjoy it. As they should.

The other thing is this: I've been running around online saying to everybody "Look, you NEED to go see this, it's in real trouble" and people respond with "Numbers are ilrelevant! You can't stop the signal!" and such.

The skimmy is this: Serenity is a commercial property of Universal Studios. If those hardcore fans understand anything, it needs to be this: it's not pulling the numbers it needs to. If they want to boost the movie, now IS the time. It's not a case of fancy slogans to dismiss the problem. It's a case of money. Money speaks volumes.

gossi | October 08, 20:53 CET

Serenity's box office will rise today, probably to somewhere in the $1.9 - $2.1 million range.

The Dark Shape | October 08, 20:56 CET

This is strange, Wallace and Grommit is only getting roughly what Serenity grossed last weekend. I would have expected it to have done far better. Are we facing a general drop off at the box office for everybody ?

technovamp | October 08, 20:57 CET

How do you figure that, TDS? I'm presuming at least some fans turned up on Friday, which will have inflated things. Although, nowhere near as badly as last Friday.

If Serenity raises on Saturday, that'll be a better omen.

gossi | October 08, 20:58 CET

Hmm, this is kinda despressing. But then again, I'm getting a case of estimation and number tiredness. I don't know what to make of the numbers anymore, but if people say this is bad, I'll believe 'em.

At least the UK numbers are looking up. I convinced two people to go see Serenity today when it opens in The Netherlands. Hopefully the battle won't be over by the time it opens here (November 17th).

GVH | October 08, 21:01 CET

Because it's been open for over a week. It dropped last Saturday because the fanbase rushed out opening day. This week that factor isn't nearly as high. If Serenity drops today, it'll be one of the worst performance in history. *Nothing* drops on Saturday if it's not opening weekend.

[ edited by The Dark Shape on 2005-10-08 19:02 ]

The Dark Shape | October 08, 21:01 CET

I'm a little wary of linking to forums or HSX. Once the sites we've been linking to during the week come up, I'll change the link.

Simon | October 08, 21:04 CET

Hubby and I watched it again last night. 7:20pm show. Theater was maybe half full. And I think they were all zombies. No one started laughing at the funnies until about 3/4 of the way in. Really diminished my enjoyment, cuz you feel weird being the only people laughing in a theater.

9th place. Oy. We were gonna see it again today, but last night put us in a depression, and I'm not sure I wanna tell hubby about the numbers...

Ok, go UK. Give us a boost....

Rogue Slayer | October 08, 21:04 CET

Does Monday count toward the weekend box office, being a holiday and all?

chickenbird | October 08, 21:05 CET

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2005-10-07&p=.htm

Serenity pulled in 1.51 million which is lower than the above 1.56 projection. That is even more depressing.

RangerM11 | October 08, 21:06 CET

Technovamp has a really good point. Wallace & Grommit pulled in $4.1, by these estimates. That's not that much higher than Serenity pulled in it's first Friday, which as I recall was $3.9. W&G has a huge "family" draw to it. Are we seeing something bigger here in the industry as a whole?

(BTW, I'll be buying my tickets tonight.)

XanFan32 | October 08, 21:06 CET

The estimates on BOM say 9th place with $1,510,000 for Friday.

theonetruebix | October 08, 21:07 CET

Wallace and Gromit will have a stronger Saturday and Sunday due to it being a family film. It will also likely have better legs than Serenity which is a sci-fi film so the situations are different.

[ edited by RangerM11 on 2005-10-08 19:09 ]

RangerM11 | October 08, 21:09 CET

Well I did my part. I went to see it Friday. I liked it more than I thought I would since I was someone who never really got into the series. I watched the series, but not with the same interest as I had watched Buffy and Angel. If anything the movie did a much better job making me care about these characters, and the annoying and jarring western references were missing thank goodness. There were only about ten or twelve people at the 12:30 pm matinee showing, but this is at a smaller complex in the suburbs. Actually there were only about 50 people in the whole theater at that time on a Friday morning, many of them grandparents bringing children to see March of the Penguins or some other childfriendly movie.

Del | October 08, 21:10 CET

are there any rich fans who can buy out an entire screen and just give them out at the theatre, cuz remember this is a word of mouth campaign. This people watching this movie for free will most likely enjoy it even more...........thats wat free does to you. And its more likely they'll tell their friends

ChosenOne5376 | October 08, 21:11 CET

Does Monday count toward the weekend box office, being a holiday and all?

I've never gotten Columbus Day off from any job I've had, so I guess it really depends where you're at, if Monday will be a 'movie day'.

Maybe we can try to get the Federal and State employees to go see it on Monday????

[ edited by Rogue Slayer on 2005-10-08 19:13 ]

Rogue Slayer | October 08, 21:12 CET

i wonder if George Bush would go see a movie like Serenity.

ChosenOne5376 | October 08, 21:13 CET

The BOM figures show drop off rate is around 60%.

gossi | October 08, 21:15 CET

I've changed the link over to the Box Office Mojo link.

Personally I think that Serenity is pretty much dead at the US box office (I would dearly loved to proved wrong on this btw ).

If people want a sequel, it might be better if we focus our efforts on the international market and coming up with some sort of campaign for the DVD release.

Simon | October 08, 21:15 CET

Indeed, international and DVD is now where it's at. Personally, to be honest, I can't see this getting a sequel.. Nobody official will say that, because - well, it's pretty obvious why. But don't pin emotional hopes on a sequel, folks.

Be glad of what's there. I'm so very, very glad Serenity wasn't completely open ended.

It's still a great film, it'll still eventually turn a profit, and it's still critically acclaimed. And I love it.

[ edited by gossi on 2005-10-08 19:18 ]

gossi | October 08, 21:18 CET

Personally I think that Serenity is pretty much dead at the US box office (I would dearly loved to proved wrong on this btw ).

You won't be.

theonetruebix | October 08, 21:19 CET

It feels too early to admit defeat like this to me. Yes, international market and DVD sales'll be important, but the movie is still playing in the US and every sold ticket'll help further the cause, right?

GVH | October 08, 21:22 CET

GVH - still go and see it. Still get friends to see it. But it'll start disappearing from theatres very quickly, unfortunately. As I said the other day, Doom adverts will now appear everywhere and Serenity will disappear quickly I suspect.

I'd love to be proved wrong.

gossi | October 08, 21:24 CET

State employees, at least here in Florida, do not get Columbus Day off work.

killinj | October 08, 21:28 CET

Heh, wish I could, unfortunately I'm in the international market as well. It just seems to me with the US being the size it is, even if Serenity does badly there, it'll rake in more money than in most European countries, for instance, in a weekend like this.

Plus, it kinda gives the wrong message if it seems that even the fans are giving up. Then again, the people who that message might get to have probably already seen the movie. Erm, am I still making sense? ;-)

Ah well, this'll just motivate me more to try and make it the biggest succes possible when it opens in The Netherlands.

GVH | October 08, 21:29 CET

I don't think anybody is giving up, GVH, I just think it's really important people be honest about the performance. So many people are CONVINCED it'll get a sequel, when the reality is...

You know, look at the figures.

Just don't be too emotionally attached to the idea of sequels, and enjoy the movie. It's still critically successful, and will more than likely make it's money back eventually. And, you know, think of all those Sci-Fi classics which didn't do too well at the box office - the list is very, very long.

gossi | October 08, 21:33 CET

Yeah, I get what you're saying, and I guess I know you're right. It's just, well...you know.

GVH | October 08, 21:39 CET

Still too early to give up yet I think. Next weekends openers don't look at all impressive. If Serenity can hang in there every cent will help with the International box office and DVD sales.

I still don't know anybody who has seen either the series or the film who hasn't loved it. Anybody you can get to see the film is likely to be another purchaser of the DVD's for the film and the series.

technovamp | October 08, 21:40 CET

Just don't be too emotionally attached to the idea of sequels, and enjoy the movie. It's still critically successful, and will more than likely make it's money back eventually. And, you know, think of all those Sci-Fi classics which didn't do too well at the box office - the list is very, very long.

That's what I've been saying, and thinking. As people say, 40% drop means you're doing really well. 50% drop is standard for most movies, 60% drop is standard for genre/niche movies that are not Star Wars or LotR. Still, hard not to be pissed when I look at the crap that's successful.

On the other hand, I have to say, that looking at the numbers of all those other movies that are opening this weekend, it's pretty piss-poor overall! I mean Wallace & Grommit did about the same as Serenity last week on friday and all of the others are well below that! And that's movies with Al Pacino, Matthew McConaughey, Cameron Diaz, etc. It's a small, petty comfort but to someone as bitter as I right now, it's still a comfort;-) (Btw, "Gospel"? WTF? "Waiting"?? People actually go to this stuff??)

EdDantes | October 08, 21:41 CET

i dont think anyones giving up, everyones just kinda bummed its looking gloomy. We can't be surprised? Joss Whedone was never a mainstream success, he's our guy. But we still gotta work hard to keep doing what we can. It doesnt matter if we spend 50 dollars hoping to get the movie numbers up, it matters that we took a part in something we believe in and love....and if u've watched Serenity you understand what I'm talking about.

ChosenOne5376 | October 08, 21:43 CET

Joss Whedon will be mainstream. You know, Wonder Woman. And, you know, Goners.

Firefly, as a concept, was never about being mainstream. It was about subverting the big guys and being underdogs. Same with Serenity. Serenity added some mainstream elements, but not enough for the US it appears (abroad... maybe).

I'm willing to bet you all £20 that Doom does much bigger opening weekend numbers. Aliens, guns, The Rock, no intelligence... it'll do grand.

[ edited by gossi on 2005-10-08 19:51 ]

gossi | October 08, 21:50 CET

I sort of wish Joss would tell us it's all right or something. I know, I know, this is a deeply selfish and childish desire. Gotta believe in the film and all that is behind it. Bottom line: it was miraculously made and it is a critical success (and how!). That the masses aren't going to see it but are seeing "Flight Plan," "Gospel" and "Waiting" instead, well, that proves what I've always thought. Maybe you can't stop the signal if there are heroes out there to see that it can't be stopped, but there are a lot of crappy non-heroes out there, too. People who wouldn't know quality if it came up to bite them in the ass. Let's hope the Brits and the rest of Europe have a higher standard of taste. I'm counting on you folks!

phlebotinin | October 08, 21:54 CET

But he's not mainstream now, thats why we're fighting for this movie to be seen.

and god, i wanta know more about Goners.

ChosenOne5376 | October 08, 21:54 CET

I think a sequel will still be possible even if the box office doesn't improve. One of the main reasons I think that is how well the Firefly DVDs have been selling this year (#4 at amazon right now, was as high as #2). If Universal is paying attention (and if the Serenity DVD sells big), I think they'll realize the fanbase is still growing as we speak. 2-3 years from now, we may have twice the browncoats we do now (not an educated estimate, just a possibility). I think a sequel will do better than this, maybe Universal will see that.

jam2 | October 08, 21:59 CET

I'm willing to bet you all £20 that Doom does much bigger opening weekend numbers. Aliens, guns, The Rock, no intelligence... it'll do grand.

Plus almost every kid in the demographic who owns a computer has played the game and doesn't understand that game to movie translations are uniformly awful.

Grounded | October 08, 22:07 CET

I did my part last night and saw it again with my kids and one of their friends. The friend wasn't a fan of Buffy, Angel or Firefly and went in completely blind and she absolutely loved it. I went to the same theater and the movie was being shown in a smaller room and there were about 35-40 people there.

The numbers are depressing but a lot of you have made good points about other movies not doing so great in their opening weekends that definitely should have done better. If Serenity doesn't last at the theaters very long here in the US there still is the dvd sales to hopefully do well. And I think they will if you go by how well the series dvds are selling. I am wondering if a lot of people are deciding to buy the dvd set before seeing the movie. If that's what is happening we should see a lot of new eager Firefly fans wanting to get their hands on the movie when it comes out.

The saddest thing to deal with is knowing what a great movie it is and when people who don't know the show have seen it they still love it. But people just aren't going. Why are people so resistant to go and see a movie that the critics love?

[ edited by Firefly Flanatic on 2005-10-08 20:08 ]

Firefly Flanatic | October 08, 22:07 CET

Why are people so resistant to go and see a movie that the critics love?

It would appear that the influence of the critics is greatly over-rated.

Simon | October 08, 22:10 CET

Just think... a decade from now it can pull a Star Trek and Kaylee not only will be chubby again but she'll look like James Doohan.

theonetruebix | October 08, 22:10 CET

It would appear that the influence of the critics is greatly over-rated.

While this is true, it's also true that I remain unconvinced that the last-minute burst of very short ads did much to even tell people that the movie had fantastic reviews across the board.

theonetruebix | October 08, 22:12 CET

Please people, don't give up. I think Universal knows there is a strong dedicated fanbase for Firefly/Serenity and I believe it even rivals fanbases of Battlestar Galactica and Stargate. So maybe instead of producing another movie they might end up relaunching it as a series on the Sci-Fi Channel or doing a series of straight to DVD releases. I think a lot of people see Serenity as something they will watch on DVD. It's a long way from being over.

We didn't throw in the towel when Firefly was canceled so why should we throw in the towel now?

Zoic_Fan | October 08, 22:16 CET

I don't think there was really anything done to really pull in non-fans. There was a lot of online stuff (which only a small percentage of audiences would have heard of.) Two trailers, I saw most of the big releases and saw only the first of the two (which wasn't all that good) at Batman Begins. Finally there was a lot of TV spots, which I don't think really would have appealed to those who didn't know what it was.

So yah, it got amazing reviews, it has a terrific rating on IMDB and audiences who saw it loved it, but most people didn't see it. It sucks.

[ edited by rabid on 2005-10-08 20:21 ]

rabid | October 08, 22:18 CET

Here's the example I gave yesterday, I'll restate it:

- Cinderella Man
- Oscar Winning director
- 2 star names
- Both Oscar Winners
- Critics RAVED over it. Higher Rotten Tomatoes Fresh score than Serenity

Nobody went to see it. Well, hardly anybody.

Why? I don't know, is the simple answer. I don't think it took peoples fancy - 1930 depression era dramas, not so much with the love.

Serenity, so far, is doing well in the UK. It had pretty low key marketing in the UK, it has to be said.

It's pretty complex, and I won't pretend to know the answers here.

gossi | October 08, 22:19 CET

I am missing hearing Neil Gaiman speak tonight so that I can see Serenity again and go to the shindig afterwards. If it doesn't look as though we are having a good sized shindig, worth going to, people don't show up - there is a critical mass thing going on here. This will be my 6th time seeing the movie, and I am still seeing new things and so are others - we talk about it afterwards and agree that we have to go see it again.
But Neil Gaiman..... sob.

Lioness | October 08, 22:20 CET

All of this hand-wringing aside, it apears to be doing fairly well here in Portland, Oregon. Theater I saw it in for last night's 7:00 PM was almost completely full. At least I've managed to be living in a clueful town, heh.

theonetruebix | October 08, 22:20 CET

I went to the 4:00 matinee yesterday and took my husband and two kids. There were about 6 or 7 other people there with us.

Sister Spooky | October 08, 22:21 CET

Don't want to hijack the board with this but Kaylee was never chubby! Being a stick is not normal!

lone fashionable wolf | October 08, 22:25 CET

Seriously, folk...first of all, it ain't over 'til it's over. Second of all, it's only just starting. As long as it's in theaters there's always at least a slight possibility for a "Big Fat Geek Wedding" if you pardon the expression, though I admit that's a giant longshot.

However, there's international and, if it's strong enough, a possible U.S. re-release (happens every once in a blue moon), the admittedly iffy possibility of an Oscar nomination for something (most likely for Chewitel E. or possibly an adapted screenplay nom., and I'm not sure but I think they're may be a new category for stuntwork), there's DVD. For sure, this may mean that any sequels will be slower in coming but I personally will be very suprised if they never come at all, though it might take several years, I admit.

However, despite what Universal is saying (they're trying to motivate us!) and some internet prognosticators have said, DVD sales have driven a number of sequels (all those movies that have sequels that cause me to say, "hey, didn't the first one bomb?") and, in the case of "Austin Powers", extremely successful sequels. Sometimes it just takes a while. Maybe another "Firefly" rerun on Sci-Fi, a strong DVD push, an award or two, international attention...it can all add up slowly.

So, even though I'm not big on dragging people to things against their will (always seems to backfire for me), I'm going to bug my Firefly-curious friends to all see it this weekend and hope for a bit of a rebound.

Stranger things have happened. Huge movies have been dissapointing on initial release only to become giant films later on ("Blade Runner," "Bonnie and Clyde" and I'm sure many others I can't think of right now).

[ edited by bobster on 2005-10-08 20:27 ]

bobster | October 08, 22:26 CET

I keep hearing people say that there have only been 40 or 50 people in the seats when they see it. I have seen it 5 times since the 30th and every time there has been 125+ people in the seats. Last night someone yelled out "How many Browncoats are in the audience?" and a good 25+ yelled out or raised their hands. I keep wondering why I see so many people in the seats and the reports I get from friends and family are similar to mine... maybe it's a geographical thing?

*perplexed in Wa State*

SpookyRiverFan | October 08, 22:27 CET

So we are approx. Worldwide: $15,282,054 without UK numbers yet?

MySerenity | October 08, 22:34 CET

It ain't over 'til it's over and, in many ways, it's only just starting. As long as it's in theaters there's always at least a slight possibility for a "Big Fat Geek Wedding" if you pardon the expression, though I admit that's a longshot.

However, there's international and, if it's strong enough, a possible U.S. re-release (happens every once in a blue moon), the non-impossibility an Oscar nomination for something (most likely for Chewitel E. or possibly a screenplay nom.) there's DVD. For sure, this may mean that any sequels will be slower in coming but I personally will be very suprised if they never come at all, though it might take years.

However, despite what Universal is saying (they're trying to motivate us!) and some internet prognosticators have said, DVD sales have driven a number of sequels (all those movies that have sequels that cause me to say, "hey, didn't the first one bomb?") and, in the case of "Austin Powers", extremely successful sequels. Sometimes it just takes a while. Maybe another "Firefly" rerun on Sci-Fi, a strong DVD push, an award or two, international attention...it can all add up slowly.

So, even though I'm not big on dragging people to things agains their will (always seems to backfire for me), I'm going to bug my Firefly-curious friends to all see it this weekend and hope for a bit of a rebound.

Stranger things have happened. Huge movies have been dissapointing on initial release only to become giant films later on.

bobster | October 08, 22:37 CET

Don't want to hijack the board with this but Kaylee was never chubby! Being a stick is not normal!

Uh, Jewel herself has described the series Kaylee as chubby.

And I read it, it described her as 'a sweet, flirtatious, chubby, nineteen-year-old girl'.

theonetruebix | October 08, 22:37 CET

SpookyRiverFan, you're seeing the same thing we're seeing here in Portland. Traditionally, the Pacific Northwest is both a literate/well-read and genre-accepting/tolerant region, so it's not surprising that the movie is doing well here.

theonetruebix | October 08, 22:39 CET

Once again with me getting all pissy about the gloom and doom.

Compared to the rest of the box office haul, these are not good numbers. No, they are not, and I admit to that. Everyone kept going on about "the crucial second weekend"...was I the only one who was almost positive that the second weekend wouldn't be any better? Serenity is a quirky niche film, and for it to have placed as high as it did in the box office last weekend was quite impressive. Plus, it's already made back almost half its budget.

What I really do not understand is the whole, "Oh my God! We'll never have a sequel!" If Joss can make an unsuccessful TV series into a film, I'm thinking he can probably make a sequel to a moderately successful film (yup, I didn't say failure, it's actually not doing too badly considering what it is and how much it cost).

We all should've known that Serenity wasn't going to blow up at the box office. That's the only reason I can imagine everyone getting all depressed; there's no way it could've surmounted the fans' high expectations (in terms of box office take, not quality here, folks).

Serenity is the kind of movie that will blow up on DVD, and you know that as well as I. I've used this comparison before, but since apparently no one was listening to me before, here it is again:

2004's The Punisher, a movie based on a character little known to anyone who's not a comic book fan. It had a budget of $33m, just $6m less than Serenity's $39m. It opened up almost exactly like Serenity, #2 at the box office and with $13m, just $3m above Serenity's take (I'm going to attribute this to the fact that The Punisher is better known than Mal or Zoe, plus John Travolta). It slowly, over the next few months, slid further and further down the box office, often taking in less than $1m a weekend, and then came to a close at the box office with a $33m gross. Not exceptional, I'm sure you will agree. However...when it hit DVD, it finally found its audience, and guess what? The Punisher 2 is out in theaters next year, directed by the same man, Jonathan Hensleigh, and once again starring Thomas Jane as Frank Castle. And people, this is a movie that people didn't even like.

Serenity's box office pattern will likely follow The Punisher's, only armed with good reviews and, well, us. Browncoats, I know that we sure as hell can make Serenity a huger hit on DVD than The Punisher was, and, well, after that? I'm thinking sequel.

(And about Wallace & Gromit's huge underperformance, like I said before, that property is dead in the States. Try talking to a co-worker or a fellow student. No one knows who the hell Wallace and Gromit are. It's a shame, yes, and I'm seeing it tomorrow night, but the majority of U.S. audiences have no clue as to what it is.)

UnpluggedCrazy | October 08, 22:42 CET

Everyone kept going on about "the crucial second weekend"...was I the only one who was almost positive that the second weekend wouldn't be any better?

That "everyone" includes, rather importantly, both Universal and Joss. Hence the focus on it.

theonetruebix | October 08, 22:44 CET

From San Francisco here (hence my name), and I went to an 8:30 showing and there were about 200 people there, the theater about 2/3 full. My guess is it's doing pretty well in urban markets...

Ronald_SF | October 08, 22:45 CET

That "everyone" includes, rather importantly, both Universal and Joss. Hence the focus on it.

Yep, I know, and I also remember thinking that they were being pretty crazy. To me, Serenity was never going to have these great week two numbers that everyone was predicting.

Maybe this is like Shiny Happy People. Everyone is blinded by love for Joss, and I'm the only one who saw through the love (which I do share, though I guess it doesn't make me less of a realist).

UnpluggedCrazy | October 08, 22:48 CET

I kind of missed Kaylee's "chubbiness." Joss wanted her that way for a reason and she just wasn't the same in the movie.

MySerenity | October 08, 22:49 CET

Ah, the Pacific Northwest is truly enlightened.

Saw Serenity again last night (and paid for extra tickets at a different theater). The room was perhaps 2/3 full. And mostly subdued. A handful of people, including me, laughed in the right places. Occasionally a breath of excitement would sweep the room, and then die down. My friend - a huge Buffy fan, who didn't really get into Firefly - thought it was great. But a young woman leaving the theater told her companion "I'd give it a B-, maybe C+".

Mostly I'm sad that, although I don't think the movie was ever going to have truly mass (SW, LOTR) appeal, I do believe there are many many people out there who would enjoy it, if only they could tear themselves away from the syndicated drip-feed of the commercial media. Ah well. Still and all, it was one great ride while it lasted.

UnpluggedCrazy, thank you for your optimism. :) I didn't know the Punisher story, and I find it rather instructive. And let's face it, folks, hardly a one of us really knows what we're talking about when it comes to box office prognosticating.

SoddingNancyTribe | October 08, 22:49 CET

To me, Serenity was never going to have these great week two numbers that everyone was predicting.

Universal and Joss weren't predicting a large second weekend. They said that the second weekend performance was vitally important to the movie's future. That's two entirely different things.

theonetruebix | October 08, 22:51 CET

Unplugged Crazy and SNT make excellent points. What is confusing is that although Joss and Universal have publicly placed great emphasis on the second weekend results, neither party has cited a specific figure. (If I'm wrong on this, please hasten to correct me.) How are we to know what would be considered a passing grade? We can speculate till the cows come home but we aren't insiders.

Ronald_SF, in terms of urban, highly educated markets, it seems to be doing fairly decently in D.C., too. (D.C. having the highest concentration per capita of advanced degrees in the U.S., or at least it used to.) Interesting. The theater I went to last night was 2/3 full and the vast majority were clearly not Browncoats. And by the look of them, not your standard hardcore sci fi fans, either. Yet there was significant laughter at most of the right spots and very, very little rustling about during the quieter moments. I think most people enjoyed it. However, I didn't overhear any reaction because I was engrossed in conversation with the people I went with.

phlebotinin | October 08, 22:52 CET

I live in a really rural area so I'm not too surprised at how few seats were filled at the theater I go to. The lobby of the theater seemed to have hardly any people in it so I doubt the other movies were doing much better filling seats.

I still think there may be a lot of interest in seeing the movie but people want to watch the series first to know the backstory. A lot of the reviews were great but some of them made it sound like you'd need to know the characters to truly appreciate the movie (and that is true). I think it's a good sign that the Firefly dvds have been selling so well - it means there is definitely a lot of potential Serenity DVD buyers out there if the movie is gone from the theaters by the time they finish the series.

Firefly Flanatic | October 08, 22:54 CET

And let's face it, folks, hardly a one of us really knows what we're talking about when it comes to box office prognosticating.

*Chuckles* Yeah, I guess you're right. :)

Ronald_SF | October 08, 22:56 CET

2004's The Punisher, a movie based on a character little known to anyone who's not a comic book fan. It had a budget of $33m, just $6m less than Serenity's $39m. It opened up almost exactly like Serenity, #2 at the box office and with $13m, just $3m above Serenity's take (I'm going to attribute this to the fact that The Punisher is better known than Mal or Zoe, plus John Travolta). It slowly, over the next few months, slid further and further down the box office, often taking in less than $1m a weekend, and then came to a close at the box office with a $33m gross. Not exceptional, I'm sure you will agree. However...when it hit DVD, it finally found its audience, and guess what? The Punisher 2 is out in theaters next year, directed by the same man, Jonathan Hensleigh, and once again starring Thomas Jane as Frank Castle. And people, this is a movie that people didn't even like.

What you say about The Punisher is true. However, having worked at the production company that did The Punisher, I'm keenly aware of one fact you're forgetting. And that's that Johnathan Hensleigh happens to presently be married to Gale Anne Hurd, who produced The Punisher and also has a tremendous amount of power to get things made because of having produced The Terminator, Aliens, Armageddon, etc. I think that's more than a little bit of a factor in The Punisher 2 happening. ;)

Celluloid Novelist | October 08, 22:57 CET

Universal and Joss weren't predicting a large second weekend. They said that the second weekend performance was vitally important to the movie's future. That's two entirely different things.

That's getting kind of nitpickish. I'm aware that neither Universal nor Joss expected a large second weekend take, but they did say that it would hopefully grow and stick around. Apparently, U.S. audiences aren't willing to open up their minds just a teensy bit, and I'm not writing off Serenity's weekend possibilities yet because this is just Saturday, but if it's going to continue with the Friday numbers, I'm thinking that Universal's optimism at some point flagged. The whole "finances reserved for a second-week boost in marketing" turning into "three or four ads showcasing a couple quotes" kind of backs up my theory.

They were overly enthusiastic, and now we're seeing their reaction to it. I'm pretty sure they know how big this will be on the DVD front, and that's probably where they're focusing their attention right now.

UnpluggedCrazy | October 08, 22:58 CET

Remember when it was just Firefly, the canceled TV show?

We've already done the impossible. We've already gotten 2 extra hours of that 'verse. And some comics. And probably a good bunch of tasty dvd extras.

Want more? Of course. But this isn't really a cause for depression. Just sayin'.

kalia | October 08, 22:58 CET

What you say about The Punisher is true. However, having worked at the production company that did The Punisher, I'm keenly aware of one fact you're forgetting. And that's that Johnathan Hensleigh happens to presently be married to Gale Anne Hurd, who produced The Punisher and also has a tremendous amount of power to get things made because of having produced The Terminator, Aliens, Armageddon, etc. I think that's more than a little bit of a factor in The Punisher 2 happening. ;)

Gorram it.

Then again, much as love (or marriage...da dun *DUN*) blinds, she wouldn't have let him do a Punisher sequel if she thought it would be a huge financial loss, would she?

Would she?

*crickets*

UnpluggedCrazy | October 08, 23:00 CET

that is very true StarHawk, this is nothing to wat we felt 3 years ago.

More people have seen this verse than when Firefly was on TV.

[ edited by ChosenOne5376 on 2005-10-08 21:02 ]

ChosenOne5376 | October 08, 23:02 CET

Hey at least, by BOM's estimates, we still beat Into the Blue again yesterday.

Well, only by like $10,000.

theonetruebix | October 08, 23:12 CET

I suspect that Serenity might develop legs, but not when it comes to US box office. It's not unlikely that some powerful foreign market really, really loves it though. (Stranger things have happened: ie. the Japanese made Lars von Trier's handheld-camera arthouse musical melodrama "Dancer in the Dark" their number one movie for a few weeks back in 2000.)

There are also the DVD sales and the merchandising. Merchandising is what makes Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings and Star Wars so commercially successful franchises beyond their box office numbers. It's not just the number of sold tickets, but also the number of sold toys, posters, soundtracks, keychains and toothbrushes.

And last but not least, you can legitimately sequelize the heck out of this franchise. No one can shoot a "Titanic 2", but you can shoot a "Serenity 23 - Whatever Happened to Jubal Early." And if the DVD is really successful, it's possible that there will be more people standing in line for the sequel than for the original, simply because they saw it on DVD and now wanna know what happens next.

I guess, it all comes down to Universal believing that the franchise can grow legs, rather than the movie itself. If they believe this weekend numbers to be representative for the franchise's potential in whole, there won't be a sequel.

para | October 08, 23:20 CET

Sorry about the off-topicness, I can't help it, I have to say this:

I don't care if Kaylee is 10 (even 20) pounds lighter OR heavier. She looks beautiful and healthy to me either way. Rock on, Jewel.

jam2 | October 08, 23:23 CET

I'm as disappointed as the rest of you, but I do think we have to look at the economy as a major factor here. The malls at my home town are virtually empty during weekdays, and even on the weekends, I'd estimate the number of people there is half what it used to be. When I went to see Serenity yesterday, there weren't more than twenty or thirty customers in the entire cineplex. The only shopping lots I see full are those at Target or Walmart or Dollar stores. I just paid my gas card bill and nearly died from stickershock.

My guess is that the DVDs will sell quite well (assuming Universal puts a "two thumbs up" on the front), as everyone here expects. I just ache to think how Joss and the actors and everyone involved feel about the disappointing theater figures.

palehorse | October 08, 23:28 CET

(And about Wallace & Gromit's huge underperformance, like I said before, that property is dead in the States. Try talking to a co-worker or a fellow student. No one knows who the hell Wallace and Gromit are. It's a shame, yes, and I'm seeing it tomorrow night, but the majority of U.S. audiences have no clue as to what it is.)

I must live in a fairly enlightened town when it comes to British programs because I and everyone else I know is familiar with Wallace and Gromit.

killinj | October 08, 23:30 CET

I watched Wallace & Gromit last night in Seattle. The crowd was very sparse. I'd say 20% full tops. Of course I went to the 9:50 pm showing to avoid seeing it with throngs of talkative and (yes, let's be honest..) stinky children.

W&G is a lot of fun, btw.

I'm seeing Serenity again at least once this weekend.

Hjermsted | October 08, 23:37 CET

Unplugged -- I agreed with everything you said, except about W&G. I do think that studio and theater owners were a bit foolish to put it in so many theaters (over 3000, I think) on opening weekend. But I'm actually against the entire current models for how films are released because it tends to favor movies that are, well, crap, fosters a tendency to treat movies as thoroughly unimportant disposable products with no sense of event -- and then everyone wonders why overall attendence is down!

Still, W&G is very, very well known and beloved at least among a certain subset of the U.S. market of which I am a member. Admittedly, I'm a liberal securar Jewish geek, born and bred in West Los Angeles, but I'd say about 80% of the people I know (including some at the place I now work in the Orange County/Riverside area, which is a red state inside of a blue one) know and love W&G. Admittedly, some of them have post-graduate degrees, but they're people too....

The other thing going for it is that the one and only safe bet in Hollywood is that a half-way decent family film will always do good numbers. And a family film that parents actually love and enjoy even more than their kids will do fantastic, Pixaresque numbers, and W&G should certianly qualify. Also, "Chicken Run" did well here and the Aardman style is well known, if only through a series of gas station commercials. I'd be surprised if it doesn't do very, very well.

And, since I'm being so off-topic, let me say that I do prefer the plumper, cuter (to me) Kaylee, but since Jewel says she's naturally slender, I say let Jewel be Jewel!

[ edited by bobster on 2005-10-08 21:41 ]

bobster | October 08, 23:40 CET

Casablanca, It's a Wonderful Life and Citizen Kane were all box-office bombs and now are regarded as classic films. I have no idea why the public hasn't initially taken to Serenity but I do know Joss made a fantastic, original movie.

I would love two sequals but if that doesn't happen Joss should still be proud of Serenity and have faith it will eventually find a wider audience through DVD sales and television showings.

Reddygirl | October 08, 23:43 CET

Holy crap. I somehow wound up in a Twilight Zone where:

* a movie came out a week ago and all anyone cares about is the sequel, even though there was no cliffhanger ending

* megacorporate media conglomerate Universal Studios has an audience worrying on its behalf about advertising campaigns and international box office figures for their latest action movie, people pledging to buy more tickets as if it were a moral stand on the level of giving Mother Theresa a glass of water for a starving Ethiopian moppet

* people expect an actually good movie to place in the top ten of the same American box office where Adam Sandler and Vin Diesel rule the roost

There's no place like home... There's no place like home... There's no place like home....

Serapion | October 08, 23:46 CET

gossi - I think one of the problems with the critical response to "Serenity" is that most critics *liked* it, but they didn't *love* it. They said, "This is a fun adventure movie," not, "This movie is the best film of the year and *you must see it*." Which is their perogative, but is not so helpful for the BDM. (And incidentally, among the "top" critics polled at metacritic, "Cinderella Man" has a metascore of 69, five points lower than "Serenity".)

All of that said, I think that critical reception has a lot more to do with the success of smaller, independent films, where the tiny segment of the population that actually *reads* reviews is actually enough to make a movie financially successful.

bobothebrave | October 09, 00:07 CET

i just posted on a board the link to the first 9 minutes and got a response from some idiot saying that he liked it the first time when it was called the 5th element............can anyone point out how that makes sense??

I think people still think this movie is about River when its about Mal.

ChosenOne5376 | October 09, 00:24 CET

Hey on the upside at least by the end of today Serenity will have passed the movie version of Buffy in US Box Office total.

Buffy Total US Gross - $14,231,669
Serenity Current US Gross - $14,179,000

Any good news is good right.

RavenU | October 09, 00:28 CET

Well, I know that Wallace and Gromit have their supporters, as I am one of them (A Close Shave rocks!), but I guess it must just be where I live...no one here knows them...

UnpluggedCrazy | October 09, 00:29 CET

ChosenOne5376 - I have heard that a lot. An insane girl holding the secret to the universe who can kick ass, with something bigger than her trying to stop her - that's what people are thinking. I could see some very basic simlarities between the 2 but they are just surface comparisons.

RavenU | October 09, 00:32 CET

ChosenOne, the guy's comment was rude, but can you blame him for thinking the movie's about River after seeing the first 9 minutes? Mal's not in the first 9 minutes! I actually don't distribute that link, because they're probably my least favorite 9 minutes of the film, since most of our BDHs aren't in there. I like the next 9 minutes a lot better. =)

[ edited by jam2 on 2005-10-08 22:38 ]

jam2 | October 09, 00:36 CET

Hey on the upside at least by the end of today Serenity will have passed the movie version of Buffy in US Box Office total.

Buffy Total US Gross - $14,231,669
Serenity Current US Gross - $14,179,000

Any good news is good right.

Buffy did worse than Serenity, but it got made into a TV show. The same could very well happen to Serenity! Personally, I would prefer a resurrection of the TV show than two movie sequels.

vampire dan | October 09, 00:51 CET

I'm a very pessimistic person by nature, but this thread is just... overwhelming. I was holding back tears reading through this.
I appreciate the realistic viewpoint, but I truly hope that people won't give up just yet. I'll still be buying tickets, and next week, I'm going to hang up more fliers. Things are very grim, indeed, but if we stop going altogether, if we just quit, then things are really over.

obsessed | October 09, 00:51 CET

I agree obsessed, no giving up just yet, please :-). Then again, people are not really talking about giving up, but it's just pretty disapointing news so far.

GVH | October 09, 00:58 CET

And remember, in the words of Alfred Hitchcock, "It's only a movie." Take it easy, folks.

bobster | October 09, 01:07 CET

To everyone of my friends, the entire appeal of the movie is BECAUSE of River, and not Mal.

But, yeah. *sigh* Guess I'll be buying another ticket. I am completely broke for atleast another two weeks after today, but the things people on minimum-wage do for fandom, right?

Christopher | October 09, 01:09 CET

Serenity will make a bomb on DVD. Good reviews, cult support, huge internet buzz. A lot of people will skip the trip to the cinema but will take the chance on DVD. It's happened umpteen times before, and it's always with this kind of film.

What's more, second to The Punisher example, there's also Pitch Black/Chronicles of Riddick which is perhaps even more relevant. Pitch Black was a cult sci-fi film that didn't really find an audience till DVD, but when it did Universal became interested in a sequel. Greenlight, go.

But before we go getting all sad and disappointed, or getting all wrapped up on whether or not there'll be another film, let's spend some more time just enjoying that there's THIS one, and that it's awesome. So awesome, in fact, that it inspires badly structured run-on sentences.

Gonnas | October 09, 01:27 CET

Heh. Of course, 'Pitch Black' (which I liked) had the added bonus of Vin Diesel who had become a HUGE name by the time that Riddick (which I didn't like) got released. So I'd say that it was more on his name that it got a (huge budget) sequel than anything else.

But, like Joss has always said, there are no models that compare to Serenity. So maybe there's nothing else to do than wait and see what happens. I'm certain that Serenity will make a profit with the combined taking of US BO + international BO + DVD-sales. If it'll be enough to warrant a sequel, who knows?

The fact remains that a sequel will have a built-in audience which is still growing (just look at the DVD sales of Firefly). So let's say that Serenity makes a small profit with $50 milj take-in, which would be dissapointing in itself. Then they might just greenlight a sequel which costs less ($30 milj) and still have a comparable, or maybe even higher, take-in after all is said and done. And that's enough. Right?

But then again, I know next to nothing of movie marketing, so I might be completely wrong.

GVH | October 09, 01:43 CET

I love the "It's only a movie" line, really I do. It's a perfect perfect illustration of a society in which one's culture is not actually supposed to MATTER to you, or MEAN SOMETHING to you, you're just supposed to "consume" it and move on (which of course is the mindset that led to the demise of "Firefly" in the first place).

theonetruebix | October 09, 01:43 CET

Let's refrain from 'skinny is not normal' comments, lone fashionable wolf. Just because you are overweight, or "healthy", doesn't mean everyone who isn't is abnormal.

charisma | October 09, 01:53 CET

charisma, while I can't speak for others, I know that my Kaylee comment was directed at the fact that Joss said he wanted Kaylee to be a "real" girl. He wanted her to look "healthy" and like someone who really enjoyed life. I'm not saying skinny isn't normal at all, I think that the point of Kaylee was that she was really wholesome and didn't really care about her weight. There was something very endearing about the roundness of her cheeks and I think some of that innocence is lost in the movie.

MySerenity | October 09, 02:09 CET

charisma, it's quite charming of you to assume, but I'm not overweight. All I'm saying is that when Hollywood ideals mean that Kaylee (Firely Kaylee, not Serenity Kaylee) is considered chubby, it doesn't reflect reality. Lots of people have a hard time with thier bodies. I'm obnoxiously happy with mine, but I have a close friend with Body Dysmorphic Disorder who hasn't left her house for 2 years so I think it's an important point.
Mods, apologies for being OT.

lone fashionable wolf | October 09, 02:10 CET

@GVH: The problem is that if it does take in $50 million, that isn't making a profit for Universal. They only get around 50% of what's taken in at the box office.

Impossible | October 09, 02:11 CET

The comments seemed aimed at the fact that an actress who isn't a stick figure girl is considered chubby. Kaylee was about the weight of the majority of women I know, meaning "film chubby," which I would not refer to as overweight. Making an asumption that lone fashionable wolf is overweight for the statement, whether is is true or not, isn't the issue.

[ edited by rabid on 2005-10-09 00:26 ]

rabid | October 09, 02:11 CET

All I hope is that Universal understand that they've invested in the start of a new franchise, and not the end of one. Most people still do not know about Firefly/Serenity, but that it slowly changing.

I'm sure the DVD sells like gangbusters... there's still life in the 'verse yet.

Of course, it would still be nice if the film takes off in an unexpected international market, bringing in the full $80 million that would guarantee sequels ;).

I buy virtually no movies on dvd - I just don't see the value. The last one I bought was probably ROTK extended. Serenity, though, I'll pre-ordering. It'll be interesting to see whether the December release for the 'bare bones' version is accuracte.

Hopefully Universal don't jump to any decisions... and they wait to see how the film ultimately plays out.

gooball | October 09, 02:28 CET

charisma: Caroline warned you three days ago about your behaviour, you obviously haven't listened so you're banned.

Simon | October 09, 02:39 CET

Didn't Universal already say that the movie needed to make $80 million for a sequel to even be considered? So it's really not an issue whether or not there will be one as long as the movie makes less than that.

vampire dan | October 09, 02:42 CET

@GVH: The problem is that if it does take in $50 million, that isn't making a profit for Universal. They only get around 50% of what's taken in at the box office.

Ah, yes, you're completely right of course. This also explains the $80 mil treshold. It's probably what they need to make a fair profit, taking in the percentage of ticket sales they get (although that changes over time) and the extra promotional costs and the likes.

Still I could see a sequel with a lower budget happening as long as the DVD sales are good. Or maybe there could be a sci-fi channel miniseries or something. That'd get them the DVD Sales with a way lower budget. I'm just saying, even without a movie sequel there might be life in the 'Verse yet. If Joss would consider an option like that, of course.

GVH | October 09, 02:53 CET

Didn't Universal already say that the movie needed to make $80 million for a sequel to even be considered?

This is something I have been wondering about for a while. I probably just missed it, but did Universal actually issue some kind of statement saying a sequel would only get the green-light if 'Serenity' achieved an $80 million worldwide box office gross?

It just seems like a very odd thing for a studio to do, making such an unambiguous statement up front. I would imagine a number of different factors are taken into account when deciding whether or not to go with a sequel. While the box office gross is undoubtedly important I find it hard to believe it is the only consideration.

alien lanes | October 09, 02:55 CET

I'm at the end of me tether on this now. I've been doing my bit. I went on opening day, twice that saturday, and again on Sunday. I just went again last night, and I went again today. 6 times, and I have a thing for 7's, it's a fair bet I'll be seeing the Big Damn movie one more time tomorrow.

I know, as well, that I don't exist in a vaccum on this endevour. There are Browncoats all over this country who are doing the same or better... and yet, our movie is failing. America is being spectacularly apathetic toward the best sci-fi movie to come along in a long time. Nobody's going and seeing it, or at least nobody in any appreciable numbers.

I hope for more, but I can't expect Universal to look at these numbers and even consider making another Serenity flick. I discovered Firefly on DVD, so I wasn't around to feel the pain of it's cancellation, but I guess I feel a little of that now. And for them that's going through this a second time, I just can't even guess at how rotten this must be for you.

I really can't wait for this to come on DVD. It's just getting painful to watch it knowing that it's like to be the last time I see these folks or that ship again. I need the distance that DVD will bring it, rather than sitting in an only partially filled theatre, knowing that every empty seat is hurting it.

IMForeman | October 09, 02:59 CET

This is something I have been wondering about for a while. I probably just missed it, but did Universal actually issue some kind of statement saying a sequel would only get the green-light if 'Serenity' achieved an $80 million worldwide box office gross?

It was a comment from them in a news article, which someone here probably has quicker access to than I. Also, much more recently, Joss himself gave the "$50 million domestic or $80 million worldwide" figure as the mark.

theonetruebix | October 09, 03:06 CET

Does anyone here have a Premiere account with Box Office Mojo? Can anyone find the entire performace breakdown, weekend to weekend of the first Austin Powers flick?

I can only get the first weekend of $9,548,111 on 2,187 screens... as opposed to Serenity's $10,086,680 on 2,188 screens. That's $538,569 more dollars on 1 extra screen. It's total gross domestic was $53,883,989 before it left theatres. Of course, it cost less than half of what Serenity did, but it seems a remarkably similar performance thus far. It would be interesting to know how Austin progressed to the point where it got a sequel.

IMForeman | October 09, 03:10 CET

I just saw it again at a 2 pm matinee and the theater was packed. I hope Sat. numbers are better.

Succatash | October 09, 03:17 CET

The $80M worldwide number was in the print version of an Entertainment Weekly article. Here's a transcript (it's near the bottom).

Now, I'm sure Universal won't just plug the numbers into a computer to decide on sequels. I imagine they'll look at the bigger picture of DVD sales, increasing fanbase, Joss's increasing clout, etc. Hopefully the box office will be a positive part of the equation, not a negative.

jam2 | October 09, 03:25 CET

Thanks jam2...

Here's a thought. The sequel to 'Pitch Black' came four years after that film. In the meantime, Vin Diesel had big box office hits with 'The Fast And The Furious' and 'xXx'. I assume Joss Whedon's next project is 'Wonder Woman'. What happens if that turns out to be a box office blockbuster? Presumably that would have an influence on any decision made by Universal should Joss still want to do a sequel to 'Serenity'.

alien lanes | October 09, 03:35 CET

jam2 and dashboardprophet, you're both right, and thanks for bringing that ray of sunshine into my cloudy brain. With WW and Goners, Joss is becoming more and more of a name. Universal might well want to be a part of his classic-to-be sci-fi trilogy. Hop on board the Joss-train! Choo choo!
ETA: an 's'

[ edited by lone fashionable wolf on 2005-10-09 01:51 ]

lone fashionable wolf | October 09, 03:45 CET

I'm not a Pollyanna by any means. I mean, I'll pick up on a negative vibe as quickly as anyone, sometimes even faster. I can read numbers and extrapolate a trend as good as anyone. Yet, for some reason, I've still got a vague optimism with this movie. I'm not willing to give up quite yet.

But, (and here's an awful thought,) let's say "Serenity" does't do very well overall. Is there some risk that Joss will get the old Kevin Smith treatment with "Wonder Woman" and "Goners" (remember when "Green Lantern" was yanked from Kevin after "Jersey Girl" flopped?)?

gooddog | October 09, 03:47 CET

In my opinion, one of the repercussions for Joss may be that he is no longer able to cast an unknown for Wonder Woman.

But then again, X-Men, Spider-Man (and the new Superman) have had a lot of unknowns - they've just had familiar faces as well. So he might still be able to get away with an unknown Wonder Woman so long as there's a big-name playing a villain.

gooball | October 09, 03:56 CET

Goners is Joss's script, and Universal paid seven figures for it and for Joss to direct. I don't think that can be taken away from him. And Universal seems to be happy with Joss, with his coming on on time and under budget, and they certainly knew the risks they were taking with a first-time director and relatively no-name actors. So I am totally upbeat about the fact that Joss will have many more opportunities to please his fans -- AND the mainstream.

palehorse | October 09, 03:59 CET

"Jersey Girl" was a critical failure as well as a box office one. Serenity is loved by critics and the box office is still open to suggestion. Therefore "Wonder Woman", where the general public will already go see it because they know the premise, will have a better chance of being a success with a writer and director that suprised critics and movie goers with his first movie. Joss won't get yanked.

GimpyD | October 09, 04:01 CET

On a similar vein, the chances of a Serenity sequel would surely be greatly increased if any member of the cast became a huge star in the next couple of years. Nathan may well be the most likely to breakout, but Morena or Summer or any of the BDHs have the potential to be much better known in the not too distant future.

Jon | October 09, 04:14 CET

Well, we've seen it for our 4th and final time. Very nice crowd for a 1:30pm showing. And they got it. So I'm happy. It was a nice good-bye. For now. I don't have hopes for a sequel, but I certainly wouldn't say no to one!

Rogue Slayer | October 09, 04:32 CET

Do you think there is any chance the movie will be pulled from the theatres after this week?

Nebula1400 | October 09, 04:43 CET

Well, we've seen it for our 4th and final time.

Uh, honey? We've seen it 6 times.....(sometimes I worry about her)

Anyway, I think Joss is only beginning as a movie maker. I doubt anyone puts this on him. It was an unlikely project in several ways, and Universal knew that going in. Joss got this movie made, the reviewers loving it is a good indication that by critical standards he made a good product and he did it at a far lower budget than other SF/Fantasy movies and got it in on time. Also he managed to keep it in California and those elements have apparently earned him a lot of brownie points in the industry.

No, Joss' career is the last thing I'm worried about. The actors...that's a different thing. Nathan and Summer are able to shine the most and hopefully it will help them, but I don't know if overall the cast will get a that much of a boost from this. (It obviously should, but given the way it goes often...) Which is sad because they really are good, and there's so many crappy people more famous than they are.

And I gotta say, with all the pride and love and whatnot that I feel, yes, the most-likely-lack of sequels does sting me. Today when we saw it again, I really found myself looking at the characters in the final scene and trying to fight the thought that this is truly the last I'll see of them. BtVS' characters we had for 7 years. Angel's for 5 which could've been longer but it was still good. But this....Joss was on a roll with the FF/Serenity 'verse and it was rife with possibilities for future stories that I would've loved to have seen.

I am happy and grateful for the movie, but I'll never stop feeling that this, perhaps more than any other show/franchise that I've seen cut down before its time, deserved to continue.

[ edited by EdDantes on 2005-10-09 07:05 ]

EdDantes | October 09, 04:45 CET

Do you think there is any chance the movie will be pulled from the theatres after this week?

Not across the board. But if the Friday-versus-Friday drop of 60% is true for weekend-versus-weekend, I would think the number of theaters would drop.

theonetruebix | October 09, 04:46 CET

And I gotta say, with all the pride and love and whatnot that I feel, yes, the most-likely-lack of sequels does sting me. Today when we saw it again, I really found myself looking at the characters in the final scene and trying to fight the thought that this is truly the last I'll see of them. BtVS' characters we had for 7 years. Angel's for 5 which could've been longer but it was still good. But this....Joss was on a roll with the FF/Serenity 'verse and it was rife with possibilities for future stories that I would've loved to have seen.

I am happy and grateful for the movie, but I'll never stop feeling that this, perhaps more than any other show/franchise that I've seen cut down before its time, deserved to continue.

Just quoting this to say that I agree 100%, EdDantes. That is the truly sad part, that this might be the last we see of these characters.

But then again, like I said in other posts, I'm still not convinced that this will be the last we see of them. I think Joss may just love this 'Verse to much to let it go even after this movie. We may still get a sequel, and if we don't, we might get something else, somewhere down the line, who knows.

I might be wrong, and if I am wrong than this Dig Damn Movie was one hell of a way to say goodbye.

GVH | October 09, 04:58 CET

I went again today. Small crowd. I love this movie. I did my part. If we don't get sequals, well, it's a shame, but, we did get this one. I wish it could've been a bigger showing here in the US.

k8cre8 | October 09, 05:04 CET

My concern is what this does to Joss's track record in Hollywood, where movies are concern it's not the best. Of all of his films in the last 10 years, only 1 film has made back it's cost which had his name attached as more that script doctor. Serenity is not just about what Joss can do, but what Joss will be allowed to do in the future by his rules. With 2 movies in the works and with a poor preformance at the box office by Serenity, what do you think will happen on his next film. Hollywood is a town about what have you've done for my pocketbook lately. He will be under greater scrutiny from producers and studios to create a commerical success which may mean white washing his work, to work more for the escapism of the mass market audience. Serenity needs to at least cover it's cost, to keep the studio and producers hands off Joss's future work.

2005 - Serenity - writer/director - Joss Whedon
Production Budget $50,000,000

2001 - Atlantis: The Lost Empire - treatment - Joss Whedon
Total US Gross $84,052,762 - Production Budget $90,000,000

2000 - Titan AE - screenplay - Joss Whedon
Total US Gross $22,751,979 - Production Budget $75,000,000

1997 - Alien: Resurrection - writer - Joss Whedon
Total US Gross $47,795,018 - Production Budget $60,000,000

1995 - Toy Story - screenplay - Joss Whedon
Total US Gross $191,796,233 - Production Budget $30,000,000 & Prints and Advertising Budget $20,000,000

RavenU | October 09, 06:14 CET

I agree k8cre8. Not including the prescreening, I've seen this movie four times (just got back from #4 an hour ago). Probably a better showing than opening night in my theater. The people got it. That's what matters. I just can't get enough of this movie, everytime is like the first time except for the fact that Joss' brilliance continues to unravel through the plot each time I see it. I keep noticing things for the first time, then I question how I could have ever missed such important aspects.

MySerenity | October 09, 06:16 CET

The fact that Mary Parent is a Joss fan, that Universal specifically wanted to work with him, that Joss will probably be working with Universal for some time (Goners and whatever else he comes up with after Wonder Woman--btw, which studio is Wonder Woman with? Warner Brothers?), and that some of these cast members may grow in popularity and recognition...even if we have to wait four years for a sequel, won't a lot of little factors like those have some bearing on our chances of seeing more Serenity?

While total box office grosses (plus DVD sales) may be the largest and most important factors, it feels like we're not taking into account all the little trap door possibilities that may provide a way in for sequels.

[ edited by Kris on 2005-10-09 04:40 ]

Kris | October 09, 06:39 CET

Does anyone think that the reason Serenity didn't do as well as expected is because there were too many pre-screenings of the film? Is it possible that because so many of the hard-core Browncoats had already seen the film before opening day, Serenity didn't do as well on opening weekend?

mai | October 09, 06:41 CET

Does anyone think that the reason Serenity didn't do as well as expected is because there were too many pre-screenings of the film? Is it possible that because so many of the hard-core Browncoats had already seen the film before opening day, Serenity didn't do as well on opening weekend?

Nah, I think the problem is that we Browncoats are only a small fraction of the movie-going public. I think that since we participate in active and vocal fandom communities, nearly of all of which had high Serenity awareness, there's a sense of disbelief that others might not have the movie on their radar. But the box office is a tough business, especially these days.

chasa | October 09, 06:52 CET

Kris - Mary Parent has left her old position at Universal now. She was a very significant driving force behind Serenity - she started the motion of the boat and kept it flying.

Joss does have ties with Universal. Goners is very much ready for development at some point (Joss actually reads GonersMovie.com, if anybody is interested).

I wouldn't totally rule the idea of Serenity sequels out, but in terms of any kind of announcement any time soon... It's just not going to happen. There is going to be some very serious mud sligning in the Whedonverse community very shortly, which I'm really NOT looking forward to, as Serenity's screens are quickly reduced and Universal roll out Doom in it's place. It really is going to be a bad time for those invested in this, as many people simply aren't getting it: domestically, Serenity is in real trouble.

Still, there's another few months of international releases of the movie. Fingers acrossed and touch wood this movie bucks the trend internationally - that would give it a longer term chance of a sequel. It's a long shot, though.

In the mean time, keep flying. (Never thought I'd say that).

gossi | October 09, 06:56 CET

While this weekend may be key, it's today (Saturday) that will tell the tale.

It's pointless to compare this Friday with the opening day, because browncoats distorted that figure too much. That's why last Saturday's box office actually declined, in contrast to all the other films.

Browncoats alone aren't going to make this movie a success, it has to be "civilians". We'll see that with this Saturday's figures. If it breaks 2 million, I think Serenity should fly just a little bit longer.

rkayn | October 09, 07:24 CET

Not sure if this means anything, but I got back from Serenity not too long ago, and the theater was pretty well packed. The audience seemed to dig it. Maybe I'm just being a Pollyanna, but it could be a good sign.

TVsBrent | October 09, 07:29 CET

Sadly, it seems that all the hope this community put into the film's second weekend is not going to pan out. It seems pretty clear now that film has failed to reach very far beyond the core audience of Firefly fandom. I sense this is the end of the Firefly/Serenity verse but direct-to-video series like The Crow and DVD hits that produce sequels like the upcoming Punisher hold out hope of some kind of future for the crew.

In the end, this film's box office success was as difficult to imagine as it was easy to hope for. No simple hook to get casual audiences involved. No stars to lure in audiences (although if Nathan Fillion doesn't become one I'll be surprised). Some have wondered why the stars weren't on chat shows and the most likely answer is that chat shows didn't want them, they simply weren't famous enough.

Universal did themselves no favors with a bland poster and trailers/tv spots withe little wit or orginality which is admittedly not something you see a lot of. Almost all Trailers/tv spots have a certain design they follow depending on the film's genre, & Serenity was no different. I am not a Sci-fi fan but I do see a fair amount of big Hollywood movies and the ads would not have made me see Serenity if I didn't already love the universe.

The Browncoat campaign was a good idea that feels mismanaged. The publicity depatment pushed the fan angle to hard which only made a film based on a failed TV show seem all the more insular to casual audiences. The screenings were a brillant idea but they needed to be in August not May. The lag between the Browncoat screenings and the actual release allowed some of the postive will toward the movie to curdle into backlash. I think this factor is being overblown on the net (but isn't that waht the net is for) but it probably did keep some audience away from the film.

Serenity will do huge business on DVD, both in sales and (I believe) rentals. I was talking to some industry friends (benefit/curse of life in LA) and we don't think this will hurt Whedon too much in the long run. He is now what he was before Serenity. An immensly talented writer/director who is beloved by the media & has a deeply loyal fan base but is unable to make a cross over to the mainstream. I am certain it will come. Whedon is where Peter Jackson or Sam Raimi were a few years ago. I think Goners or Wonder Woman can put him over the top.

Unitas | October 09, 07:35 CET

The audience I sat with today was definitely more populace than last night's crowd... and last night's crowd included a bunch of early teens on their own who thought it would be funny to talk and throw M&M's at each other all the live long film. I eventually just moved to the front of the theatre and I was treated to seeing the movie in explicit detail from that point.
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October 08 2005