According to the summary, this takes the total to $33 million. Out of a production budget of $39 million. Over time, and factoring in the DVD sales, it just might make a profit.

[ edited by Dym on 2005-10-26 19:40 ]

Quit | October 26, 21:40 CET

I reckon it will make a profit. People will be buying it on DVD for years to come.

Simon | October 26, 21:43 CET

That $33 million doesn't go straight to the studio, the theaters get a big cut.

My very rough unscientific estimate is that Serenity will gross $26M US and $14M international for $40M worlwide, of which the studio will get $27M. That leaves a gap of $12M (not counting marketing costs, even).

I certainly believe the DVD will sell very well, but I think that will go more toward making the investment back than to making any profit. Anyone know what a typical profit margin is like for a movie DVD (it sure ain't $20, after production, marketing, manufacturing, retailing, etc.)? I don't know the number, but it seems it would take an awful lot of DVDs sold to make more than $12M.

ETA: OK, I googled "dvd profit margin" and it turns out it's a lot higher than I would have thought. According to this, it's 50-60% (wow). So depending on what price that percentage is taken from, in a $20-30 range, Universal may get just about $12 per DVD sold.

Again, I'm not an expert and these numbers are really ballpark, but it looks like 1 million DVDs sold would get the movie about even, and anything beyond that would translate to profit. That's better than I thought. I guess that's the "new Hollywood math" we hear so much about. =)

[ edited by jam2 on 2005-10-26 20:33 ]

jam2 | October 26, 22:02 CET

jam2, studios count on 50 to 60% of their revenues to come from DVD. With this film, it will be much higher.

TamaraC | October 26, 22:31 CET

Uh... more in Spain than France!
$511,605 Yeah spanish Browncoats!
But I can't find the complete list, so I don't know its place in the ranking.

Here's an example of the spanish BO, but they're not the real 21 - 23 Oct numbers. They're from the past week.

http://www.filmaffinity.com/es/boxoffice.php

[ edited by Angel TheVampire on 2005-10-26 20:46 ]

Angel TheVampire | October 26, 22:43 CET

Firefly sold an estimated 500,000 copies, from the last estimate. The latest numbers will probably be about a million.

gossi | October 26, 23:18 CET

From what I've heard, your research would be correct, jame2, because DVDs themselves are much cheaper to produce than the much higher prices we pay for them, even when you take into account marketing and such.

I think Serenity is going on its way to make a decent profit. It won't be amazingly spectacular, but it will prove that they have a semi-profitable franchise in the making, and as someone has mentioned here before, such films are needed to offset the flops a studio produces, even if they aren't making a giant profit, it's still profit.

Also, think about the number of people who've seen Serenity who had no experience of Firefly, and enjoyed it. Consider the people who bought Firefly after seeing Serenity and enjoyed it, or the people who have been buying it over the past few years, as it has definitely been selling well. On top of the pre-existing fanbase, you have a lot of new converts, people who will now spread the word of mouth and would be glad to see a sequel. Also remember the widespread positive reviews Serenity got.

From that point of view, it seems that a sequel would more than likely improve upon Serenity's box office and DVD performance, which seems that it will be modestly profitable. The potential commercial success for another film is very good, as long as the studio can see this.

Pitch Black, for example, got quite good reviews and word-of-mouth, which made it very successful and set up a sequel, however this was generally crticised by reviewers, and it still managed to do well (at least I think so, from what I've heard). Any possible Serenity sequel is a film that will likely have a lower budget than Chronicles of Riddick, a very loyal pre-existing fanbase, a lot of new fans, and support from critics, so hopefully we will get a sequel, I personally don't think it is impossible.

I think it will probably be the DVD sales that decide what happens. If they are just okay then perhaps they won't make much difference to our chances of a sequel, but I think if they are as strong as Firefly's and we can push them up to the top of the charts for a couple of weeks, then I think the studio will want a sequel.

Razor | October 26, 23:25 CET

Of course, more in Spain than France...

Serenity was released last week in france. In 177 theater (3 in OV).

This week (one week after its release, thus) it droped to 74 theaters, and only 3 in Paris (the 3 in OV)!! Some of them only having one screening per day (the kind that takes place at 23:00).

Except by not releasing it at all, I can't imagine how it could be worst.

At least, I will see it in OV in two days. :)

Le Comité | October 27, 01:09 CET

Boxoffice Mojo doesn't mention Ukraine, but I know that the film has been released there and, according to Ukrainian LJers I know, does pretty well.

Moscow Watcher | October 27, 01:24 CET

I suspect 1-to-1.5 million DVD sales of 'Serenity' as well. Though this should be enough for Universal to recoup the funds they invested, I kinda' doubt their profit margain will warrent a sequel. Before everyone starts arming up with fruits and various meats, I'll be the first to cheer and dance if I short changed this estimate. But, I really don't think so. Just trying to be realistic here. And I wish to thank Joss and crew in their efforts in bringing us yet another amazing story that we can ponder.

Madhatter | October 27, 01:54 CET

If you are interested in learning more about movie finance and profit, I find Edward Jay Epstein’s ‘The Hollywood Economist’ column in Slate magazine an informative and authoritative source.

All his articles are worth reading, check them out by typing his name into the search box on the main page here.

There are several which specifically deal with box office, dvd sales and costs to release a movie.

(for some stupid reason the site doesn't let me link you directly to the overview list of his articles. Annoying, don't know why.)

miranda | October 27, 02:02 CET

Thanks Miranda, that is a superb set of articles.

See if this link works for you.

technovamp | October 27, 03:11 CET

I just had a person at work tell me that she enjoyed the movie so much she wants to see the series now and will be buying it. But she doesn't know that she will buy the movie because she has seen that. It hadn't struck me before how much Fox is really benefitting from this, and if there are more people like my workmate, Universal is not. Once I get the DVD of Serenity, I will have to tell her how wonderful it is and how much she is missing. All of which will be true, I'm sure.

Lioness | October 27, 03:17 CET

My pleasure technovamp. Thanks for fixing the link, clearly you are better with the interweb than me :)

miranda | October 27, 13:02 CET

Lioness, Don't worry. Once she sees the series she will almost certainly want to see the movie again because she will have a different perspective on everything. The first thing my friend, who was not thrilled about the show but had seen it, (I loaned her the DVD's) said after the movie was that there was so much in it that she needs to get the DVD when it comes out to really get all the stuff that was going on as well as the lines she couldn't understand. I think if you see Firefly, you realize that there is a lot more going on in Serenity than the surface plot.

newcj | October 27, 19:24 CET

Just to point out, my previous post was definitely a "glass half full" kinda one, but it's still fairly logical I think.

Razor | October 27, 19:38 CET